Kevin's Royals Blog

It’s the last day of 2004, and the last Kevin’s Royals Blog post of the year. It’s only been a couple of months since I first started writing daily entries, but I think this page has still made some significant strides over that time period. A hearty thanks goes out to all of you who check in to read my babbling on a daily basis. And for those of you who are just semi-daily readers, well, here’s a big thank you for your support too. I look forward to 2005, with eyes on continuing to improve the look and content of this space. As always, if you have any suggestions, I’d like to hear them.

And by the way, if you still haven’t met your good deed goal that you set as a 2004 resolution (and even if you have), you can make a difference in a lot of lives today. Donating just a few dollars to help those who’ve been impacted by the earthquake and subsequent tsunamis in Asia will go lots farther than you think. But money isn’t enough – Let’s remember to keep those people in our thoughts and prayers as well.

• One of the first "grown-up" television shows I can remember watching as a kid was Law & Order. It never quite reached the level that Seinfeld did with me, meaning that I made time to plop down on the couch and turn on NBC at 9 p.m. However, I still got a great deal of enjoyment out of all that cool cop drama then, and I still do today. Unfortunately, the episode that aired last night had to end with a see-you-later tribute to Jerry Orbach, who played the role of Detective Lenny Briscoe for 12 years before passing away yesterday at the age of 69.
  
  Orbach’s days on the original Law & Order ended long before his death, as he decided to take Briscoe to a lesser role in another L & O spinoff, Trial By Jury, at the end of last season. That doesn’t make his passing any less shocking or sad to me, because I grew up watching his character make all those awesome wisecracks and display a coolness that’s usually reserved for people half his age or younger in the entertainment world. I think there’s a part of most of us that wishes we could be like the character he portrayed, which is the ultimate sign of success for any actor. Jerry’s gonna be missed, but I get the feeling everyone in Heaven became a lot more hip upon his arrival.
  
  
• Did you know that the Royals signed Luis Ugueto last week? This thing flew way under the radar (with good reason), and I didn’t have the slightest clue he’d left the Mariners until checking out a list of all the transactions that have taken place this winter. He got a minor-league deal from the Royals, and will presumably become an infielder for Triple-A Omaha after pushing Chris Clapinski to be the very best he can be in Surprise.
  
  Unless another injury disaster strikes Tony Graffanino, Ruben Gotay, and Clapinski, he isn’t going to make any sort of an impact for the Royals this season. He probably had his career year in 2004, hitting .271/.341/.440 in 361 at-bats for Seattle’s Triple-A team. However, not being useless for the first time in his career is probably Ugueto’s second-best achievement, as he has his own statistic in the Baseball Prospectus glossary:
  
  

  The Ugueto Effect is name given to the phenomenon in which very poor players are associated with very high PECOTA Breakout scores. It is far easier for a player like Luis Ugueto, who would produce about 40 EQR over a full season, to improve upon that figure by 20% than it is for Alex Rodriguez; as a result, his Breakout score is likely to be higher. This does not mean that Ugueto is a player you'd want anywhere near your roster.

  If you don't get any of that crazy stuff like PECOTA or EQR, you can get more information by visiting BP’s stats page.
  
  
• It looks like the Royals are at least considering using what’s left of Kevin Appier out of the bullpen as I suggested a while back. It’s a little bit scary that he can "turn [his velocity] up to 88 or 89 when it matters" (like that’s supposed to be encouraging?), but like the Jose Lima signing, I’m just going to let that roll and hope he never throws his fastball again. He’s been left with one above-average pitch, and even the craftiest of crafty pitchers can’t really survive as starting pitchers with only one useful pitch in their repertoires. The Royals need to stop thinking of him as a rotation candidate, and stick his butt in relief where he can hurt the team less.
  
  
• Speaking of Law & Order, do those producers know how to pick out beautiful and intelligent women to star in the series or what? I think most shows wouldn't be able to replace somebody like Angie Harmon, but NBC found another knockout to take her place on the show, Elisabeth Rohm:
  
  

Kevin: I guess I can break out my t-shirt again, because you-know-who will be a Royal in 2005. One year at $2.5 million for the second installment of Lima Time! has me questioning just what Allard Baird's doing, and the ladies of KC questioning how they're going to make their escape.

But in all seriousness, my reactions to this news are that the Royals gave him ENTIRELY too much money, will probably give him too important of a role as a staff leader, and are still hung up on 2003. I think what we're seeing is Allard making another panic move, but we're just going to have to live with it.

Since Lima's going to be here, we have to hope that he pitches well enough that Allard can flip him for a Grade-C prospect in June or July. And that might be a fairly realistic scenario, I think. Lima was pretty good at Chavez Ravine last year, only allowing batters to hit .255/.278/.421, essentially turning every guy into Tony Batista. He was terrible on the road, of course, but I don't think that's a very good way to estimate how good he'll be in Kauffman. Last year, the Park Factor for The K was 910, and Dodger Stadium's was 909. Jose's probably in line for a regression, but I don't think he'll be so terrible we'll look back on this as a signing that rates an Albie Lopez on the terrible scale.

Daniel: You can break out your t-shirt, but if you do anything with it except dry your car, I think you might be expecting too much.

In line with that, Allard Baird and many Royals fans will be expecting too much from Jose Lima. Baird, I think, is focusing on the hope that Lima, like his previous two seasons, will simply not be bad. Many fans are focusing on his pretty, shiny won/loss record over the last two years, as if that's a barometer of how Lima will perform in 2005.

Baird could be right, but the fans will be wrong. Lima's smoke and mirrors act will experience strong winds and a sledgehammer in 2005. Those terrible road splits you mentioned? They can't be ignored (1.47 WHIP, 5.56 ERA, and 2.3 HR's per 9 innings). The WHIP and ERA are at about Darrell May and Brian Anderson of 2004 levels, and the HR/9 is actually worse. While not necessarily a good barometer of how Lima will pitch at Kauffman, those numbers are perfectly acceptable for Lima's road starts with the Royals in 2005.

As far as the rest, well, indeed the park factors were similar for Chavez Ravine and Kauffman last year, but forgive me if I put a bunch more emphasis on the numbers from Dodger Stadium, since that edifice has had about four decades to prove itself to be a pitcher's park, while Kauffman's new dimensions have just last year under its belt.

Lima Time! was fun and cool in 2003, and Lima gave the team a boost during his brief tenure. But besides dance a little and pump his fist, his numbers from that season indicate that the level of respect Lima gets from Royals fans is disproportionate to how well he actually pitched. Remember, Lima pitched for much better teams in the 2003 Royals and the 2004 Dodgers (especially offensively for the Royals in 2003), and this Royals team is likely to be nowhere near .500. Also remember, even Chris George was 9-6 in 2003.

Kevin: Well, I guess I'm just looking for reasons to like the move with the park factors, because there aren't many other reasons to think Lima won't totally stink.

With that said, I'm sure Allard knows what Lima is, and that's a slightly below-average pitcher ERA-wise with good control and a problem with the gopher ball. It seems that kind of a pitcher could've been had from the minor-league free agent market for roughly a tenth of Lima's salary. However, with Baird's intelligent use of said market, there has to be some other reason he chose Lima over Esteban Loaiza and others.

I think a lot of that decision had to do with who Jose Lima is: A good guy whose song-and-dance act is purely authentic. And when his team's going good, there isn't a more fun player out there in professional baseball. I don't think that's worth $2.5 million, of course, but I think it was the reason Lima's the guy playing Darrell May's role in 2005.

Daniel: It is indeed difficult to knock Baird without seeing what Lima can do in his first few starts, but like you said, on the surface it looks like a move that could have been duplicated for much less money. However, if it brings a few more fans out to the park (and from the little I've heard to this point, it looks like it actually could), and gets the fans a little more excited to see Royals baseball, I suppose there are worse ways to spend $2.5 million for one season. For better or worse, it'll be Lima Time!

Some of you might be wondering why I haven’t posted a more in-depth look at Jose Lima’s return to the Royals, and with good reason. But rest assured, because there’s a Voices From The Basement discussion about that very topic coming later this week; I just don’t want to write something about it now and then repeat it later. By the way, if you look to your right, you’ll see that I finally figured out how to post a Links section. There are some high-quality blogs over there you should check out.

On to more important topics at hand …

• It doesn’t mean I think any more of the guy than I did before, but Jim Bowden’s off the hook. Reds GM Dan O’Brien made damn sure of that by making the worst free agent signing of 2004 by far, guaranteeing Eric Milton three years and $25.5 million. Well, the worst free agent signing for a team, because Milton’s probably still on cloud nine right now. But I’ll get to that later.
  
  I’ve always been curious as to what the fascination with Milton’s all about. Maybe it’s his left-handedness. Perhaps his stuff makes people think he’s better than he really is. But no matter what, it stretches from fans to front office members to managers to other players even though he’s been a steady, but incredibly average pitcher during his tenure; his career ERA of 4.76 is just slightly above the league’s of 4.73. To his credit, he’s taken his reputation and cashed it into about $22 million worth of career earnings coming into 2005, when his shiny new contract will kick into gear.
  
  The interesting thing is that Matt Clement received the exact same contract from the Red Sox, and unless Milton was allowed to pitch all of his games against the Royals (13-2, 3.67 ERA in 17 career starts), there’s no question which of the two is the better pitcher has the best chance of earning his pay. Their career ERAs are pretty similar (4.76 and 4.34), but Milton has a chance of having some Lima-esque problems with the home run ball at Great American Ballpark. Clement, on the other hand, is a groundball/power kind of pitcher who hasn't allowed opposing batters an OPS north of .700 since 2001.
  
  If that wasn’t enough, I ran the data for both pitchers in The Hardball Times’ Net Win Shares Value Calculator, which takes a player’s contract status, Win Shares, Win Shares Above Average, and previous season’s salary into consideration. The result is an estimated salary according to the player’s production. Some earlier projections I ran turned out to be pretty accurate (Brad Radke and Carl Pavano), and I’d expect Carlos Beltran to get around $15 million a season when he signs as well. Anyway, Clement’s NWSV is $3,773,169. Milton’s? $609,201. Both are pretty far off what both actually received, but it’s clear that Milton is being extremely overpaid even if you don’t buy into the sabermetric way of thinking.
  
  Of course, one man’s stupidity is another man’s gain, and Eric’s now a much, much richer man because of it. I couldn’t be happier for him, especially since he’s going to stay in the Senior Circuit and won’t be able to torment the Royals for awhile longer. Some of what he said at the press conference is absolutely priceless:
  
  

  "I was very surprised. They had not been very active in the past."
  
  "Things changed from week to week. New teams came up, and teams dropped out and went in different directions. Once they got into the mix, they were pretty relentless. It just made me feel really wanted, that's for sure."

  Six zeroes trailing a 25 tends to do that to people, dontcha think?
  
  

  "I want to be on a winner. That was a big key for me going into this whole free agent thing. I think this team is headed in the right direction now, and hopefully in the next couple of years we'll keep improving."

  Sure, Eric, you want to be on a winner. That’s why you turned down the Yankees, Red Sox, and Dodgers, three playoff teams from a season ago.
  
  I don’t think any team, no matter how hard they try, could possibly top this move in badness. I hope the Reds are ready to stick with Milton for the full three years, because this is one of those unmovable contracts no team has any business entering into.
  
  
• I entered into an interesting discussion at one of my favorite Royals message board stops yesterday regarding which catcher Zack Greinke is most effective with. The numbers, albeit somewhat skewed for a couple of reasons, are at least somewhat interesting, I think. Here's what I wrote:
  
  

  Santiago: 2.76 ERA (26 IP)
  Buck: 5.03 (59.1 IP)
  Castillo: 3.51 (46.2 IP)
  Stinnett: 3.46 (18 IP)
  
  So you're right, Greinke did pitch better with Castillo behind the dish. However, this is sort of the same thing the Braves did with Javy Lopez and Greg Maddux's personal catchers. Yeah, the pitcher is more comfortable, but the loss of offensive ability from Buck to Castillo outweighs whatever comfort level Zack has with Castillo.
  
  EDIT: After double-checking, my numbers are wrong. Five extra IP got thrown in there somewhere, but I don't feel like going back and tallying the innings and earned runs again in ESPN.com's game log. I'm just going to call it "close enough."

And here's what a guy named Nathan found, which goes a little bit more in-depth than my numbers:

BUCK
ERA: 5.17
WHIP:1.28
K/BB:3.57
K/9: 7.18
HR/9:1.58
BB/9:2.01

CASTILLO
ERA: 3.28
WHIP:1.24
K/BB:6.00
K/9: 6.55
HR/9:1.76
BB/9:1.09

I don't know what to make of all that, but my best guess: Greinke is the same pitcher no matter who's throwing down the signs. He has a better ERA with Castillo, which looks to be a function of fewer walks (don't know how you peg that on a catcher). Most of the other numbers suggest parity, but Greinke's K rate is strangely higher with Buck.

I don't think there are enough innings to draw any sort of conclusion. And even if there were a few more innings ... there might be too many biases anyway (home/road, Greinke learning as the season wore on, etc.)

• Lima Time! is going to make a return appearance to Kauffman Stadium in 2005, and I’m a little bit torn on the signing. It’s one of those Brain v. Heart battles, in that I know that Lima isn’t a very good pitcher, isn’t all that durable, and certainly isn’t worth $2.5 million to a team with a $45 million payroll. However, there’s also something to be said for the fun he brings to the park with the dancing and screaming he does on the mound. He’s just a fun guy to have on one’s favorite baseball team, and now I can bust out my Lima Time! t-shirt again when I visit the K in 2005. Here’s hoping he doesn’t suck too bad, and the Royals will be able to flip him for a prospect at the trading deadline.
  
  
• If you haven’t seen Ashlee Simpson’s video for her newest single LaLa, you should watch it. This thing has to be the most badass video I’ve ever seen.
  
  
• The Chiefs were mathematically eliminated from playoff contention on Saturday, but that doesn’t make their win over the Raiders any less sweet. They tried their darndest lose the game with horrible pass coverage and Trent Green’s fumble with about 1:40 left to go, but Dante Hall saved the day with a clutch 49-yard return to set up Lawrence Tynes’ game-winning field goal. There’s just something awesome about beating Oakland four times in a row.
  
  
• While I was watching SportsCenter on Saturday night, the promo for Sunday Night Football struck me as a little bit odd. I understand they needed to make a little bit of an extra effort to get people to watch Miami and Cleveland – two terrible football teams – go at it in primetime, but was flashing a picture of Dan Marino during the promo really necessary?

I know I wrote yesterday that I was going to take today off, but sometimes news has a way of forcing one's hand. This news, albeit sad, is one of those hand-forcers. Former Orioles and Rangers manager Johnny Oates passed away early this morning, losing his three-year long battle with a brain tumor.

There are times when a person who didn't lead such a good life passes away, and people heap praises upon him or her anyway just because it's the politically correct thing to do. Oates is going to receive some of the kindest words of his life today, but by all accounts, they're well-deserved. I've been pretty well acquainted with one Rangers fan for three years, and he's always spoken highly of Oates as a man of great baseball knowledge (797-746 career managerial record) and as a man of even greater character. I know I've never read anything but good stories about the guy, too. Also, the guy had a will of steel to fight a brain tumor for three years.

So the baseball world's loss is Heaven's gain. Johnny -- from a person who's never met you -- thanks for being an example of everything that's good about the game, and everything that's good about the way a person can live his or her life. Well done.


1946-2004

I received an interesting comment from a reader named Dave regarding yesterday’s post. Dave wrote, in part:

Love your lineup except I'd flop Long and Pickering.. Long has potential to hit 20 HR's and hit .280, and he's a lot faster.. If you look at your 3-6 as is, there is absolutely no speed, which equals run scoring hell.. They have to find a way to seperate the fat and slow and injury prone guys who cant run, it killed us last year.

In case you don’t have any idea what he’s talking about, I made an early winter lineup that had sloths Calvin Pickering, Mike Sweeney, Matt Stairs, and John Buck hitting consecutively. In a way, he has a good point; ideally, you don’t want four guys who can’t run all clumped together in the same part of the order. However, I wouldn’t say separating those guys is so vital that Terrence Long should hit third. On offense, speed is essentially without value unless it’s on base, and T-Long’s inability to avoid outs (career .319 on-base percentage) probably would kill the offense more than Pickering’s lack of speed would.

The concept of getting your best hitters the most at-bats possible is one that’s still lost on even the most intelligent baseball fans. Pickering does a good job of drawing walks and hitting the ball way out of the park, and to maximize a team’s run-scoring output, teams need to hit guys like that as high in the order as possible. Breaking up the monotony of slow dudes would be nice if one of the fast guys could get on base, but they don’t. There’s a good chance that Pickering and Long will be the best and worst hitters in the lineup respectively, and they need to be slotted accordingly regardless of speed.

Other stuff ...

• Is there any question that Jamie Foxx is a freaky-awesome talent? He really burst onto the scene in 2004 by starring in Collateral and Ray (which should earn him the Oscar for Best Actor), and as a result of those movies, he's been given the opportunity to display his other abilities. You know, normal stuff like hilarious stand-up comedy, impersonations, piano playing, singing, and songwriting. The guy's on fire right now, and it looks as if nothing short of a complete disaster will keep him from superstardom.
  
  
• In the rubble of all the horrible free agent signings (there was another one yesterday), leave it to Theo Epstein to make a sensible move. The Red Sox won the two-day long Wade Miller sweepstakes (the Royals were in on him too), signing him to a one-year deal that's laden with incentives. The beauty of the contract is its low base ($1.5 million), which reduces Boston's risk significantly. If he's healthy, Miller's one hell of a good pitcher, posting ERA+ numbers of 96, 134, 130, 107, and 129 in his first five full seasons. I like the odds of Miller and Matt Clement at least matching the contributions Pedro Martinez and Derek Lowe give their new teams, and the Sox would be getting that production at significantly less cost. This was a good pickup, and Miller will be a nice sleeper pick for all you fantasy baseball-types out there.
  
  
• Kevin's Royals Blog has a new team member. Be on the lookout for some articles by Dan, my partner-in-crime from Voices From The Basement.
  
  
• As a 20th birthday present to myself, I'm going to take tomorrow off. Santa's going to leave Carlos Beltran in somebody's favorite team's stocking this Christmas. Sadly, the only one that's likely to be empty is the stocking of my beloved Royals. Oh well; Dennis Tankersley's a nice consolation gift, I suppose. Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays, everybody! Drive safely.

Joe Randa’s career in Kansas City officially ended on Tuesday, although everyone saw the writing on the wall when the Royals signed Chris Truby. Randa agreed to a one-year deal worth $2.15 million with the Reds, allowing him to continue to play in the Midwest and stay reasonably close to his home in KC. I’m not surprised Randa chose to play where he did, because he’s a real hometown, family-first kind of guy, traits Royals fans loved him for.

However, fans can, at times, become too attached to a player for reasons outside of baseball. It happens all the time in St. Louis; the Redbird faithful fell hard for "hard-nosed" guys like Joe McEwing and Bo Hart, who just shouldn’t see regular playing time in the major leagues. That kind of an attachment can be a good thing if the player actually earns his paycheck with his play on the field too, like Nomar Garciaparra did in Boston. Although Randa stopped earning his $3 to $4 million salary long ago, the fans continued to love the guy because of his personality, and a mutiny came damn close to happening when Allard Baird announced the team was probably going to cut bait with The Joker. To his credit, Baird never wavered, and made the decision that was in the best interest of the Kansas City Royals, not its fans. As steady as he’d been since 1999, there just wasn’t any sense in bringing Randa back for millions again with Mark Teahen being one push away from shoving down the door to the major leagues.

Baird didn’t opt for Truby over Randa because he viewed Truby as even Randa’s equal; he clearly is not. But Truby was the more attractive option financially, and will be far easier to kick to the curb once Teahen completes his apprenticeship in the minor leagues. It’s things like that – the business side of baseball – that most fans will never be able to understand. Sometimes, the horse simply leaves the barn, and it was time for Randa and the Royals to part ways. The sooner Royals fans can get over it and accept that 2005 is going to be a horrible year with or without the face of mediocrity taking the field again at third base, the better off we’ll be.

With that being official, the Royals’ lineup is becoming less and less foggy with each passing day. Whether that’s a good thing or a bad thing is up to you, but it’s clearing up either way. Here’s the lineup I’d like to see on Opening Day if the Royals do nothing else this winter:

David DeJesus – CF
Tony Graffanino – 2B
Calvin Pickering – 1B
Mike Sweeney – DH
Matt Stairs – LF
John Buck – C
Terrence Long – RF
Chris Truby – 3B
Angel Berroa – SS

Of course, I’d love to see Baird acquire a young, power-hitting outfielder with good on-base skills, but teams tend to want to hang onto guys like that. My lineup has a pretty nice left/right/left thing going, and the first five batters all have shown the ability to get on base previously in their careers. The wild card is Pickering, who I think could have a monstrous home run hittin’ year if the Royals will just give him a chance, and trade Ken Harvey in the process.

Looking over the list of players who were non-tendered yesterday again, I found just one guy who might be a fit for the Royals in 2005: Scott Stewart. Stewart, a left-handed reliever, posted ERA+ numbers of 122, 134, and 125 his first three years in the league before plummeting 66 a year ago. Stewart’s still just 29 years old and will probably be pretty inexpensive.

I have some thoughts on the non-tendered players who could realistically join and help the Royals in 2005, and that post will be up later today. Until then ...

Good Tuesday Reading

The Royals of Sir Cedric by Steve Treder
Knuckleball Sandwich: Clement No Longer An Option by David Haller
What in the name of Dan Duquette are the Red Sox doing? by Matt Minton

• I had the first fender-bender of my life on Friday night, which was, obviously, a major-league bummer. Thankfully, no damage was done to the truck I rear-ended at 2 mph, and the nice lady driving the truck didn’t even ask for my insurance information. My car, on the other hand, has a nice dent and crumple place right underneath the passenger’s side headlight, which I’m going to refer to as "character marks." But to quote Tony Pena and Allard Baird, "it’s nothing serious." Nobody got hurt either, so I guess that’s the saving grace. Just remember, kids: Never take your foot off the brake when there’s a car right in front of you. Nothing good could possibly come from it.
  
  
• I had my car accident en route to see Jim Carrey in Lemony Snicket’s A Series of Unfortunate Events. It’s difficult to provide an unbiased review of the movie since I think Carrey’s one of the funniest people ever, so I’ll just say it’s extremely entertaining. Jim’s ability to combine his lines with his own improvisational style is nothing short of genius.
  
  
• The Royals decided not to tender a contract to Miguel Asencio, making him a free agent. They’re interested in re-signing him to a minor-league deal, but his elbow just hasn’t healed as quickly as the Royals would like. At this point, it’s believed he won’t be ready to go until August or September at the earliest. He’s had more rehab setbacks than Robert Downey, Jr., and the Royals don’t have any business carrying a lame-duck pitcher on their 40-man roster. People who’re getting really excited about the Royals popping Andy Sisco in last week’s Rule 5 draft should take a look at Asencio’s career with the Royals, because this is what happens to most Rule 5 picks. For every Johan Santana, there are probably 20 guys who are complete failures.
  
  
• I’ve decided there’s nothing more fun than getting front-row seats to a college basketball game and screaming your lungs out, especially during a hotly contested contest. The SMS Bears were in such a game yesterday, and eventually beat Miami (OH) 69-63. The win over Wally Szczerbiak U was an important one, because it’ll give SMS some wiggle room next week when they play Oklahoma University at Norman. You never want to say a team can "afford" to lose a game in college basketball, but going into the game at 6-1 certainly helps. The game against the Sooners will wrap up their non-conference schedule, and they can’t be any worse than 6-2 going into conference play.
  
  One funny thing happened during the game when Blake Ahearn (who I’ve given props to before on this blog) intercepted a pass and had a clear lane to the basket for a layup. The only problem? He didn’t quite jump high enough, and got stuffed by the rim. Knowing the guys who play on the team, I think he can expect to find one of those plastic, 3-foot tall Fisher Price basketball goals in his room at some point this week. He’ll be lucky if Anthony Shavies & Co. don’t come up with a picture of the "play" and put copies of it all over his door.
  
  
• If any people here in Springfield hadn’t recovered from the Cardinals’ embarrassing no-show in the World Series, they probably will when the team introduces Mark Mulder sometime this week. Walt Jocketty landed Mulder for what was probably the same package he offered the A’s for Tim Hudson, a package that I think made it a heck of a good trade for St. Louis. The real prize in the deal for Oakland is catcher Daric Barton, who’s shown outstanding knowledge of the strike zone at a very young age. I also like Dan Haren’s chances at at least becoming a good relief pitcher, and Kiko Calero’s been one of the most underrated set-up guys in baseball over the past two seasons. Wouldn’t you like to have a guy with a career 2.80 ERA in 83 2/3 innings in your team's bullpen?
  
  Still, it’s going to work out well for the Cards. As long as Mulder’s healthy (his walks took a pretty big-time spike last year), the Cards finally have that stopper they’ve been searching for since Matt Morris’s last really good year. I think we can also put Mulder down in the same category as Scott Rolen, in that he’s a hometown guy who’ll fall in love with the Cardinal fans and sign a long-term deal.
  
  
• In the commercial for her new fragrance, Britney Spears is shown rolling around in a bed with some guy. She then poses the question, "Do you dare?" to the viewing audience, which I think is a little bit ironic. And no, Britney, I wouldn’t dare.

I was starting to become impatient with the Royals' (lack of) activity so far this offseason, but Allard Baird cured my impatience with a couple of Thursday trades. One deal -- Benito Santiago going to Pittsburgh -- was anticipated, but the other -- Eli Marrero going to KC -- was a surprise. And a nice one, I might add.

I've talked about the Santiago deal already, so I don't want to go into too much detail there. However, the return for him wasn't just Leo Nunez; the Royals will also receive a player to be named later (presumably one who was drafted in 2004) or cash to complete the trade. Even though the Royals had to chip in a million bucks towards Benito's salary, the trade still looks fine. As of now, Alberto Castillo is probably the favorite to be the backup catcher, but I'd like to see Paul Phillips get an opportunity with Castillo being the emergency catcher at Triple-A.

The Royals' addition of Marrero isn't necessarily a "good" move in the sense that it'll help them win any more games, but I can definitely see the logic behind it. For a short period of time, I was extremely concerned that Allard had given up on trying to acquire Austin Kearns, Kevin Mench, Jason Michaels, or somebody else, and that Marrero was going to end the search for 2005's everyday left fielder. That isn't the case, although Eli's presence will probably make the Reds think twice about being so resistant in trade talks for Kearns.

There's some question as to what role Marrero will fill for the Royals, because the outfield competition is already crowded, and Chris Clapinski is expected to be the team's utility infielder. The Royals say he was acquired because he mashes left-handed pitching (.314/.384/.502 from 2002-2004) and plays good defense at each outfield position. Those traits will make him the perfect platoon partner for Terrence Long, who's a serious liability against southpaws.

Looking deeper into Marrero's stats reveals another interesting line, and that's his hitting splits with nobody on base, runners on base, and runners in scoring position. It's been suggested (and generally accepted by the sabermetric crowd) that hitters as a whole don't hit better with men on base than they do with the bases empty. While I agree with that theory, I think there's undeniable evidence that some individual hitters do turn it up a notch with ducks on the pond. Mike Sweeney's one of the most extreme cases of this I've ever seen, so I'll call it "Sweeney's Law" for lack of a better term. His three-year splits:

	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Bases Empty	703	.260	.323	.444	.767
Runners On	571	.368	.458	.601	1.059
Scoring Position	333	.375	.480	.658	1.138

The interesting thing is that not only does Sweeney's batting average and power increase as you go down that chart, but his plate discipline improves drastically as well. Marrero's three-year splits are a similar case:

	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Bases Empty	424	.257	.306	.432	.738
Runners On	330	.300	.367	.497	.864
Scoring Position	184	.326	.410	.598	1.008

There are a couple of possible reasons for this. Pitchers generally lose some command, velocity, and movement when they have to pitch out of the stretch, and probably throw more fastballs, too. That plays into the hands of Marrero, who's a dead-red fastball hitter. I don't think there are too many pitchers who can sneak one past him. I think Marrero was added not only to platoon with T-Long and catch the baseball at all three outfield positions, but also because he's shown a knack for getting base hits when there are runners to drive in.

The ransom for Elieser (and a significant amount of money towards his $3 million salary) was 23-year-old reliever Jorge Vasquez. He saw limited action for the Royals last year, pitching 3 1/3 innings and allowing four earned runs. He's shown outstanding peripheral statistics in the minors, so I think he'll have a career as a power set-up guy or closer. Even so, the Royals are unlikely to regret trading Vasquez, especially if Baird can flip Marrero for an even better prospect come July.

Little Timmy: Hooray! Washington D.C.'s getting a baseball team!
Bud Selig: I'm sorry Timmy. [Loads shotgun] I have to take the Nationals behind the barn.

I know finding humor in other peoples' problems is considered a not-so-nice thing in many social circles, but the Washington Nationals/Expos/Senators/Homeless situation is entirely too good to just let go. As I'm sure you've read by now, some money problems have turned up that MLB has taken exception to, so the entire move to D.C. has been jeopardized.

Yes, after the mini-rally with pretty confetti, the unveiling of the uniforms, and the actions of the rudderless ship known as Bowden Bon Voyage, the Washington team may end up in Las Vegas. You know, gambling and Wayne Newton USA, the only place where there would be more whores right outside the stadium than there would be good baseball players in it.

Considering this franchise appears doomed no matter where it plays, I have to wonder if it's too late to rip up the "no contraction" part of the CBA. And while we're at it, let's contract the Mets too.

Some quick notes after a night of a little work, a gift exchange, and another visit to the Waffle House:

• The Royals used the second pick in the Rule 5 draft well, taking left-handed pitcher Andy Sisco from the Cubs organization. By some accounts, Sisco is 12 feet tall, throws 130 mph on days when he doesn't quite have his really good stuff, owns a blue ox, and one day dreams of playing in the NBA and beating the hell out of people in the stands. With help from the ox.
  
  But in all seriousness, Sisco (who's actually 6'9) instantly became the best pitching prospect in the Kansas City organization. His strikeout rate in the minor leagues is an outstanding 9.92 per nine innings, he's kept the ball in the park (17 homers in 331 innings), and his control hasn't been all that bad, as he's walked 3.94 batters per nine.
  
  Still, 3.94 walks per nine isn't good either, especially when the pitcher hasn't seen a level above Single-A. Put that pitcher in the major leagues right away as the Royals are going to do with Sisco, and he's going to have an even harder time throwing strikes. It's for that reason Allard Baird plans on hiding him in the bullpen at least to begin the season, which is a move I can definitely understand. It's going to be up to Tony Pena to pick the right spots for him to pitch, which will most likely be in blowout situations.
  
  If Sisco can learn to repeat his delivery over time, the consistency of his stuff and command will improve drastically, and the Royals very well could have a top-of-the-rotation pitcher. One can only hope his debut goes better than fellow Rule 5 draftee Miguel Asencio's did.
  
  
• On Monday night, three friends from high school and I went to TGI Friday's. Coincidentally, John Buck, Shawn Camp, and Nathan Field were there too, most likely because the Royals winter caravan made its Springfield stop that night. I don't know why, but to me, there's just something fascinating about seeing a major leaguer in a restaurant, a store, or anywhere else they aren't in uniform. Apparently I was alone in being fascinated, because no other person seemed to have the slightest clue that there were pretty decent baseball players sitting right next to them. Such is the life of a Kansas City Royal.
  
  
• The Royals are reportedly on the verge of trading Benito Santiago to the Pirates, pending Santiago passing a physical. According to the Kansas City Star, KC will receive minor league pitcher Leo Nunez and a player to be named for Santiago and about $1 million in cash.
  
  Just about a few days ago, Baird spoke about the Royals' catching situation, saying that he planned on Santiago being Buck's backup in 05:
  
  

  "I really don't want to trade him," Royals general manager Allard Baird said. "I had a good conversation with him (earlier this week). We think he can be an excellent backup for John Buck. That hasn't changed."

  I thought that quote to be a strange one at the time, because the Royals have much-less expensive options to back up Buck in Alberto Castillo and Paul Phillips. But then the Pirates decided they couldn't wait to get Jason Kendall's replacement, and gave Allard a call. If the deal goes through as expected, it'll save some money for the Royals while adding a couple of marginal prospects. For the Pirates, Santiago can still swing the bat (contrary to popular belief), and is well worth a million bucks.
  
  
• Remember when I declared Natalie Portman the official crush of Kevin's Royals Blog? Scrap that, and say hello to Ashlee Simpson. One word: Knockout.
  
  

Kevin: Is it possible that this Sosa-to-Kansas City rumor could have some legs under it? I found mention of it in an mlb.com article, which read in part:

Hendry met with about 10 teams Saturday and would not confirm which teams asked about Sosa. They were believed to be in both leagues, and the Kansas City Royals were among the teams to ask about the availability of the 36-year-old outfielder.

These rumors have been going around for months, but I always dismissed them because they were being reported by Chicago-biased newspapers. You know, newspapers that might purposely take a quote out of context to make it sound like the Royals were actually interested.

But this seems real. Assuming Baird isn't trying to be the middle man in some three-team extravaganza, would bringing Sammy to KC make any sense at all, even if the Cubs picked up a significant portion of his contract? After all, the Royals want to put butts in the seats, and this might do just that.

Daniel: I hope the rumours aren't true, because I would rather not see Sammy play for the Royals. Why? Well, in a business sense it would be fine as long as the Cubs did indeed pick up a large portion of his salary, and as long as Baird had his finger on the trade-trigger after Sammy has had a couple of months to (hopefully) hit a mess of home runs.

It would be a large risk if, like I suspect, Sammy is starting to lose it. He really started to expand his strike zone after he came off the DL last year (not that he ever had Bonds-like discipline to begin with). Now, is this a sign of skills decline, or was it just because Sammy was just trying to hard? We all know what Sammy himself would say, of course, but Baird has to realize that if the former is true, he could end up stuck with another big contract on his hands he can't unload, and two contracts on the payroll the size of Sosa's and Sweeney's would simply kill the Royals in 2006 before it ever begins -- unless of course, Sosa and Sweeney perform pretty much to their abilities, and if the Royals assortment of younger players begin to click.

Those are hum-antic and gig-ongous ifs, if you follow me. If done (no more ifs, I promise), this move would indeed put butts in the seats, but I don't think the Royals really can afford to get saddled with Sosa's salary in subsequent seasons, to summarize my synopsis.

Kevin: Sosa's being linked with the Royals mostly because Jeff Pentland, the hitting coach, was a driving force behind Sammy's improved strike zone recognition from 1998 to 2002. But no matter which metric you want to use, there's no question he's regressed in the plate discipline department as you pointed out. But I question whether Sammy's started to lose it, or if his declining walk rates can be explained by another variable.

Remember April 20, 2003? You probably don't, but that was the day Salomon Torres beaned Sosa with a fastball, busting his batting helmet into tiny pieces. Sosa'd blasted his way through April, hitting .303/.446/.573 in 89 at-bats that month. He also drew 20 walks, which was on par with his new-found disciplined approach. Then Torres beaned him, and Sammy just wasn't himself the rest of the season. (Who would be after getting whacked in the noggin by a 95-mph fastball?) This is overly-simplified, but what I have available to me are his pre- and post-All Star break stats for 2003. I think the point can still be made:

Pre: .312/.408/.577
Post: .245/.305/.529

My colleague John Rayman, a devout Cubs follower, says he thinks Sosa's regression can be attributed to him not recognizing pitches anymore, i.e. picking up the rotation on a slider. The question is whether or not Pentland can work with Sammy to restore his mental confidence and fix whatever mechanical flaws he may have picked up after being hit by Torres' pitch. Pentland's a fine hitting coach in my opinion, but I don't know if anybody's good enough to fix a mentally-broken hitter. What do you think?

Daniel: You could be right about thae beaning -- Sosa's numbers do take a dive directly after, and he was having a hot month. However, I'm going to go with the simpler explanation. Slammin' Sammy is just plain getting old. Let's take a look at Sammy in 2001, unquestionably Sosa's best season as pro, and the subsequent seasons:

2001: .328/.437/.737, 1 walk every 6.1 plate appearances, 1 strikeout every 4.6 plate appearances.
2002: .288/.399/.594, 1 walk every 6.4 plate appearances, 1 strikeout every 4.6 plate appearances.
2003: .279/.358/.553, 1 walk every 9.5 plate appearances, 1 strikeout every 4.1 plate appearances.
2004: .253/.332/.517, 1 walk every 9.6 plate appearances, 1 strikeout every 4 plate appearances.

Of course, the rate of walks and the number of strikeouts are linked for many players -- Sammy is a prime example of this. When Sosa walks less, he's striking out more. While the beaning could easily have contributed to this trend, age could easily do the same (and we'll never really know which it is). However, we both can easily see the same thing: Sosa has lost command of the strike zone. The last time his walk and strikeout rate were at 2004 levels? Try 1997, where his walk rate was an atrocious 1 walk every 15.4 plate appearances, and his strikeout rate was 1 for every 4 plate appearances.

Between '97 and '98 is where Sosa "got it". His walks went from 45 in '97 to 73 in '98, and he started striking out a bit less in just about every year after that until 2002 saw Sammy start his current decline.

What does this mean? Well, it does mean Sammy's losing it, but it doesn't necessarily mean that Pentland can't do Sosa any good. However, Pentland cannot reverse the effects of age on Sosa (unless certain drugs are involved -- won't even go there), so the only way Pentland could make a significant difference is if your theory is correct, and that Sosa's decline has been due to something that can be traced to that beaning in early 2003.

However, if I was Allard Baird, I wouldn't bet on it. Sosa's decline, if one looks at the statistics, may well have started in 2002, before any beaning took place.

It's only been six games, but the Southwest Missouri State men's basketball team is looking like they could put together one of those special seasons that will live on in people's memories. The Bears won their fifth straight game on Saturday night, thumping Troy State University 110-63 at Hammons Student Center. Not only have they been winning, they've been winning convincingly, a sign of a very good basketball team. For the fourth straight game, they beat their opponent by at least 13 points.

Although I don't have the stats to back it up (my copy of Basketball Prospectus is hiding somewhere in the disaster known as my room), I think much of the Bears' success can be attributed to Ben Miller, a former Kansas assistant coach who came to SMS before this season. With him, Miller brought the fast break tempo that KU had used with much success for years. During almost every year of the Barry Hinson era, the Bears have focused on walking the ball up the floor, and trying to out-defend the other team. That's seen mixed results, as SMS has had several winning seasons during Hinson's tenure as coach, but not NCAA Tournament appearances. Picking up the pace does two things to help a team win: First, it forces the other team to get back on defense quicker than they want to, meaning they don't get to set a defensive strategy on the possession. Secondly (and most importantly) sprinting down the floor with the ball will tire out the other team if they aren't conditioned well enough to handle such a thing.

A faster tempo means more possessions for both teams, which, all things being equal, also means more points for both teams. But check out what's happened to the points per game so far this year, compared with the first six games of the 2003-2004 campaign:

SEASON	Bears	Opponent
2003-2004	69.5	58.2
2004-2005	80.0	61.3

Points have gone up for both the Bears and their opponents, but SMS is scoring 10.5 more points per game and their defense has remained suffocating despite the probable increased number of possessions.

SMS's incredible depth definitely has been a huge help in maintaining the defensive intensity. Hinson has the luxury of being able to substitute players in and out several times during a game without losing much if any talent on the floor. He has three legitimate inside players in 6'7 senior Tamarr Maclin, 6'9 freshman Drew Richards, and 6'10 freshman Sky Frazier. Richards is actually much taller than 6'9, which is scary considering he's only in his first year. Shooting guards? Sophomore Blake Ahearn's been on fire of late, nailing NBA-three after NBA-three. Deven Mitchell, Kellen Easley, Anthony Shavies, and Tyler Chaney are all also available to spell Ahearn if need be.

The bottom line is that this team is very young, and also very, very good. SMS hasn't had a more talented group of guys since the 1999 team that went to the Sweet Sixteen. Whether their 5-1 run to open the season is just a mirage because of a somewhat weak schedule remains to be seen, but I definitely like what I've seen so far. They're big, good shooters, fast, and smart, and only two of them -- Maclin and guard Trevyor Fisher -- are seniors. As long as the Bears don't blow it somehow, this is a dynasty in training.

Other stuff ...

• Late Saturday night, reports were swirling that Tim Hudson was on the verge of being traded to the Dodgers for pitcher Edwin Jackson and infielder Antonio Perez. Since that time, Dodgers GM Paul DePodesta has denied that he ever made an official offer for Hudson, so that kills the speculation, at least for the time being. If the deal ends up getting done with Jackson and Perez being the central pieces, I can't help but go back to how the Dodgers acquired Perez in the first place. I thought it to be a steal then because of Perez's ability, but if he ends up being used to bring Hudson to LA, perhaps all the DePodesta haters will disappear.
  
  
• Looking for a new baseball blog to read? Well, do I ever have the place for you! Check out my friend David Haller's writing at Knuckleball Sandwich, a page with plenty of insight about the Cleveland Indians.
  
  
• I saw Closer yesterday, which was an incredibly good, but also incredibly strange film. I think this movie helped Clive Owen's chances of being the next James Bond, and certainly was Natalie Portman's breakout role. Speaking of Ms. Portman, she's now the official crush of Kevin's Royals Blog:
  
  

• Allard Baird's quest to find his Holy Grail (some big guy who can hit the ball a long way and play right field) added a new name on Friday. According to a story in the Kansas City Star, the Royals are still pursuing Shrek Mench and Austin Kearns, but also have interest in Philadelphia's Jason Michaels. I'm not surprised the Royals are interested in Michaels, because he's a pretty darned good player with solid on-base skills. However, he isn't the type of player who's going to hit 30 homers, so surely he isn't being lumped in with Mench and Kearns, both of whom have hit for significant power in the minor leagues. Michaels is an undervalued player, but he's more Lew Ford than Magglio Ordonez. The Royals need an Ordonez-type hitter, so my preference remains Kearns.
  
  
• My new favorite restaurant is Waffle House, whose slogan "Good Food Fast" could not be more true. Screw the clubs, the bars, and the ice cream places, because this is the perfect hangout for college kids. Hell, I might just go back tonight after I see a late-night showing of Ocean's 12. It was good times, especially since the five of us got some authentic Waffle House paper hats.
  
  
• Another fun look-alike: Actor Linus Roache (left) and Royals GM Allard Baird, who apparently doesn't have but one very small picture on the web …
  
  
  
  
• If you have ten minutes to waste, I'd recommend checking out this audio clip from Jim Rome's radio show. Pretty funny stuff if you ask me.
  
  
• As always, everyone have a fantastic weekend. If you need me, I'll be asleep somewhere ...

The deadline for teams to offer their free agents arbitration has come and gone, meaning we're going to see the Hot Stove League pick up some serious steam in the days leading to the Winter Meetings. This also means the Royals will become slightly more aggressive in which players they pursue, although I'd be surprised if they sign anybody before the market shakes out.

We know that in all probability, the Royals won't be signing anybody who was offered arbitration by his former team. Why? A) The Royals won't want to lose any draft picks and B) Players who were offered arby are probably too expensive anyway. While there weren't any Power Hitting Corner Outfielders (TM) within the Royals price range whose old team declined arby, there are a few interesting Innings Starters (TM) and an intriguing relief pitcher I think the R's should take a look at:

Innings Starters ...

Shawn Estes (COL): He's durable but also terrible, which makes him half of the perfect candidate for what the Royals are looking for. Many will look at his sparkling 15-8 record and assume he's turned some sort of a corner, but he hasn't. His last season with an ERA+ of 100 came in 2001 with the Giants. Although he didn't completely embarass himself in Coors Field last year (5.84 ERA), his control is awful, which isn't going to make the R's infield defense any better. Think Darrell May without the command.

Jose Lima (LAD): As much as I hate to admit it, Lima looks like a pretty attractive option because of the lack of talent surrounding him in the free agent pool. I still contend that he's a bad pitcher, but he's probably going to be a hell of a lot better than Estes, and he DOES get bonus points for his personality. If he'd pitch for less than a million bucks, I could deal with him on a one-year contract. But he isn't as attractive an option as ...

Esteban Loaiza (NYY): His 2003 was about as real as Britney Spears' chest, but the Royals aren't looking for a #1 starter. His career ERA is roughly league average for that time span (4.70 compared to the league's 4.62), and I really like his peripheral stats:

BB/9: 2.61
K/BB: 2.24/1

His career K/9 ratio is workable too (5.85). Problems with the home run ball have driven his ERA up, but there's a darned good chance Kauffman Stadium's dimensions would alleviate that at least slightly. I'd give him $1 million, tell him to do the best he can, and then trade him at the deadline. He looks like the best option.

Another starter ...

Hideo Nomo (LAD): If he's healthy, I think this might be a decent risk. He's been steadily declining for the past three seasons because his K/9 and K/BB ratios have been going downhill fast. However, at least part of his disastrous 2004 has to be chalked up to a rotator cuff problem which, if it's been fixed, could make him a bargain. The Royals have entirely too many guys who pitch to contact, and a healthy Nomo could help break the monotony. Hell, it was just two seasons ago that he had a K/9 ratio of well over 7, which is Ryan-esque among this group of pitchers.

To sum it up, Estes doesn't fit, Loaiza and Lima are the safer bets, and Nomo is the guy with the highest upside. With the additional money Allard has in his pocket, he might be able to get both Loaiza and Nomo if he needed to.

Other guys ...

Steve Reed, RHP (COL): It's possible Reed's going to call it a career, but if he doesn't, the Royals should be all over him. Sure he's going to be 40, but all he's done for 12 seasons is be one of the most underrated relievers in baseball with a career 3.51 ERA. In addition, Reed's showing few signs of slowing down. In the past two years pitching at Coors Field, he's posted a 3.49 ERA in 129.1 innings at an advanced age. Pick him up for half a million bucks, watch hiim throw strikes and get guys out, and then move him at the deadline.

Jose Hernandez, IF (LAD): Speaking of underrated baseball players, Hernandez is one, and now I'm wishing Baird hadn't been so quick in signing Chris Truby. Hernandez is going to strike out like nobody's business, but he also draws his share of walks and hits for moderate power. Expecting a .910 OPS out of him again would be lunacy, but the team that signs him is going to get something like .250/.320/.430 from him, or a replacement-level hitter. He's certainly preferable to Truby because he'll probably have more trade value.

• If anything, Kevin Appier's one tenacious booger.
  
  Even after his 2004 season proved that he has nothing left, Planet Appier's decided to give it one more go in 2005, throwing his 86-mph fastballs for all they're worth. I'm starting to think that a person could run the guy over with a semi next June, and it wouldn't faze him in the least when he decides to come back and try to pitch (again) in 2006.
  
  I'm only half-kidding. When combined with his stuff, that competitiveness made him a sleeper for the Hall of Fame in the early-to-mid-90s, and the same bulldog mentality is what's keeping him going ten years later. However, his blessing is in many ways his curse, because I'm afraid Ape's going to embarrass himself if he continues to believe he can hack it in a major league rotation. Or the Royals rotation, for that matter.
  
  No pitcher is going to see very much success when he has one pitch that's even league-average: In Appier's case, his still-filthy slider. His fastball tops out in the high-80s on good days, and his splitter is nothing to brag about. But if he wants to extend his career, I think he could do so by pitching one inning at a time out of the bullpen, where he could throw that slider 'til the cows come home while mixing in a few "heaters" to keep opposing batters honest. It'd be a worthwhile experiment for the Royals, who are almost as short on decent relievers as they are on starters.
  
  
• The horrible signings continued late last night, with Henry Blanco and Tony Womack agreeing to two-year deals with the Cubs and Yankees, respectively. I think everyone's already getting a good chuckle at George Steinbrenner's first step towards catching the Red Sox, so I'm going to leave that one alone. The Blanco signing intrigues me, though, and not just because the Cubs probably gave him entirely too much money to be a reserve catcher.
  
  This might be one of the few times a GM isn't the instigator of talks with any type of free agent, because Greg Maddux made this signing whether the Cubs want to admit it or not. Maddux has always been weird about having his own catcher for a wide variety of reasons, none of which are important enough to talk about in detail here. Maddux had three personal catchers while he was in Atlanta because he couldn't do his thing with Javy Lopez behind the dish:
  
  Charlie O'Brien (1994-1995)
  Eddie Perez (1996-1999)
  Paul Bako (2000-2001)
  Henry Blanco (2002-2003)
  
  Not-so-ironically, Bako played for the Cubs last year, and Blanco's taking his place in 2005. The Braves only catered to Maddux's desires because, well, he's Greg Maddux. As you can probably guess, O'Brien, Perez, Bako, and Blanco were or are all pretty much your everyday, run-of-the-mill reserve catchers, meaning that they can't hit a lick. Having Lopez's bat in the lineup on the days Maddux pitched would've offset any kind of a negative the Braves would've experienced because Javy and Greg couldn't click.
  
  Here we are years later, and the Cubs are doing the exact same thing. Michael Barrett finally emerged into the hitter everyone thought he'd be in Montreal, but because Maddux apparently needs to work with a familiar face, the Cubs are willing to sacrifice 25% of their offense from the catcher position to make their pitcher happy. It probably won't cost them much, perhaps a win, but I still view it as a questionable strategy.

Note: I got back in very late last night (or early this morning if you prefer), so in place of today's entry is a mini-VFTB. Kevin's Royals Blog will be back tomorrow with another article.

Kevin: When the Royals added Ambiorix Burgos to their 40-man roster, I was pretty excited because the kid dominated his league last year, and has continued to strike people out at a very high rate in winter ball. If anyone in this organization has the ability to be Johan Santana, it's him.

However, the Royals apparently don't see him the way I do. I've read stories on both the Kansas City Star's website and the team's official website that indicate they're dead-set on making Burgos a relief pitcher. They say that he's only starting games to get regular work, and that in time, he will be moved to the bullpen.

Does that bother you at all? It bothers me quite a bit, even if at the present, he has no third pitch and his slider is inconsistent. He's only 20 years old, and showed flashes of being a guy who can dominate a game with 15 strikeouts like Santana did a year ago. When a team has a guy with that kind of ability, they need to maximize his innings, not restrict him to one- and two-inning appearances. What do you think?

Daniel: It bothers me, but in all fairness, only because Zack Greinke did what he did in 2004. I probably wouldn't have given it a lot of thought if Burgos was the first 20-year-old pitcher since ... who, Bret Saberhagen? And I believe he was 21 ...

But the reality is, of course, that Greinke did have a great rookie season last year at 20 years old, and he did it as a starter. I'm not sure how the organization can see a 20-year-old perform like Greinke did as a starter, then turn around and pigeon-hole Burgos as a reliever. It's one thing to project Burgos as a starter or reliever in their heads -- it's another to make that a reality without testing it on the field.

Personally, I don't think any 20-year-old should start out as a reliever (at least, not a 20 year old with the type of arm Burgos has). Perhaps I'm old school, but aren't starters more valuable than relievers? Why not teach him another pitch or two to see if a starter can be made of him?

Indeed, this is baffling, and it's very short-sighted. I really, really hope this isn't a prelude to billing Burgos as their "closer of the future", or anything insipid like that. What next, drafting closers and set-up men out of high school?

A couple of weeks ago, I briefly talked about four additions the Royals made to their 40-man roster. Of the four, the additions of Mark Teahen and Justin Huber were seemingly no-brainers, but the team also added pitchers Devon Lowery and Ambiorix Burgos, preventing them from being popped in this month's Rule 5 draft. It was only recently that I'd even heard of Burgos for the first time, but it turns out he's a guy a baseball nut such as myself should've known of a long time ago. His reported stuff and eye-popping strikeout rate at age 20 inspired me to write about him on November 19. For those of you who missed that day's entry, here's what I wrote about him:

Ambiorix Burgos is the most intriguing player the Royals chose to protect. He's intriguing for the same reason Griffin's going to intrigue other clubs (a high-octane fastball and plus-breaking stuff), but unlike Griffin, Burgos has actually performed. His strikeout rate was an unbelievable 11.58 in 2004, and while his command needs a lot of work, he's still on track to be a very good major league pitcher. After all, control problems aren't unusual for 20-year-olds with blazing fastballs. If Burgos can cut his walk rate in half over the next two seasons, he'll be mentioned as one of the ten best pitching prospects in baseball. He's probably the only pitcher the Royals have in the minor leagues who has the potential to be a Johan Santana kind of great.

The only part of that paragraph I halfway regret writing is the comparison to Johan Santana, since Burgos, at 20, could take any one of a number of different paths in his baseball career. However, there's no question that he has the potential to dominate, given his 11.33 K/9 rate in 174 minor league innings. Pitchers with Burgos' stuff are extremely rare, so in my opinion, it's extremely vital for his team to maximize the number of innings he provides by grooming him to be a starting pitcher. The Royals apparently don't see him that way, though, and seem dead-set on him being a short reliever when he makes it to the majors.

Unless the Royals are planning on using the old Earl Weaver strategy, which placed an emphasis on allowing young to-be starting pitchers to get their feet wet in low-leverage situations out of the bullpen, I view this plan for Burgos to be a waste of a potentially dominant pitcher. There are concerns about the inconsistency of his slider and his lack of a third pitch, but can the Royals not give him some time to work on that slider and develop a useful changeup or curve?

My point is that the Royals owe it to every pitcher in their organization to allow them to determine what they can and can't do. If Burgos proves he can't hack it as a starting pitcher because of a lack of endurance or a lack of command, fine. After all, many dominant closers were once failed starting pitchers. It's just a premature decision they've seemed to make here, and it's one that I hope they reverse in the near future.

But it took Minnesota about a year and a half to remove Santana from their bullpen and insert him as a starting pitcher, so maybe there's hope here. The closer Burgos ends up like him, the better the Royals will be.

Other stuff ...

• Similar to last weekend, I went to SMS basketball games on Friday and Saturday night. The Bears hosted their annual Price Cutter Classic, a four-team tournament they won by picking up victories in both games. One was pretty (an 88-52 buttkicking of Youngstown State), and the other was brutally ugly (a 64-51 win over Arkansas-Little Rock). The win over UALR was a defensive struggle to say the least, with the score being 4-0 Bears with 15 minutes left in the first half. I've never seen shoddier basketball in my life, as both teams were taking horrible shots and predictably missing them (badly).
  
  However, the Bears quickly improved in the second half, gaining momentum when Blake Ahearn nailed a three-point shot from 30 feet out and Drew Richards threw down a thunderous dunk. It ended up being good times, because a win's a win, and the Bears are now 4-1 with two more games left on the homestand.
  
  Speaking of Ahearn, don't you think he looks a little bit like a certain Royals pitcher?
  
  
  
  
• On Saturday afternoon, I saw Mr. 3000, starring the one and only Bernie Mac as a former major leaguer who makes a comeback to get his 3,000th career hit. Of all the baseball movies I've ever seen, this one's my third-favorite behind The Sandlot and Major League. Not only was the story of how a self-obsessed man can become a team player very good, but the cameo appearances by current and former major leaguers were particularly cool as well.
  
  This wouldn't be the first time a real baseball player has appeared in a baseball movie, with Tom Candiotti, Ricky Ledee, Scott Pose, Bobby Bonilla and others having been actors-for-a-day in baseball movies over the last decade.
  
  In Mr. 3000, I'm pretty sure I saw Dodgers pitcher Scott Stewart don a Braves jersey and make a few pitches to Stan Ross (Bernie Mac), and ex-Royal Doug Henry made an appearance too as a member of the Houston Astros. If I remember correctly, Henry gave up a game-winning bomb to Ross, who was 47 years old at the time. Some things just never change.

• The day before Thanksgiving, I wrote a short couple of paragraphs about a steroids-related poll I found on ESPN.com. In the wake of Jason Giambi's court statements being leaked to the media, the topic is more relevant than ever. Here's what I wrote that day:
  
  

  The ESPN.com poll, which was on the MLB page, asked this question, with two possible answers:
  
  Baseball hasn't had a 50-homer guy since 2002. Which would you prefer?
  
  > Tougher drug testing, even if fewer HRs
  > Juice 'em up and let 'em rip
  
  I was surprised at the results after I voted for "Juice 'em up and let 'em rip," because only 16.1 percent of the 23,508 voters saw things the way I did.
  
  I know I might catch some flak for writing this, but I don't care if major leaguers take steroids, and I don't think baseball should care either. When an athlete takes a steroid or some kind of a significant supplement, he's essentially making a deal with devil: By shooting up, he risks losing years of his life as a tradeoff to perform at the highest possible level in the present. We all saw the unfortunate demise of Ken Caminiti, in which steroids played at least a small role.
  
  If an athlete of any sport wants to take that risk, I don't see the point of standing in his (or her) way. This isn't MLB's fight to pick, so I think they'd be better off to not ban steroids and let the Sammy Sosas and Jason Giambis of the world shoot up in the on-deck circle if they so choose. If what the fans want is legitimacy attached to their game, then let them have their legitimacy by giving players the option of using. Grown men play baseball, and if they want to die young to hit a lot of homers now, that's their sacrifice to make.

  Giambi's "confession" to using in 2003 hasn't swayed my opinion on this one bit. I still don't think Bud Selig should have any interest in saving idiots like Giambi from themselves, but I do see one acceptable way to put a stop to steroid use, not that it's going to happen. And that would be the players' union making a few rules about the use of illegal enhancements.
  
  Since the players are the ones juicing up and harming themselves, I think it would be in the best interest of the union (which supposedly cares about its members) to protect its members from potentially harming themselves down the road. I'd like to see a rule put in place that says if a player is found to be juicing, the consequence would be removal from the union. That's right: No more royalties from video games, merchandise, or other licensed memorabilia, and being labeled as a "scab" along with the replacement players from 1995.
  
  So my original opinion stands that MLB should have nothing to do with this, but the players' union, for the well-being of its members, has quite the responsibility here. I hope they take that responsibility, but I won't be surprised when they don't.
  
  
• Lost in the sidebar of a December 1 Bob Nightengale column in USA TODAY was a sentence that read, simply, "The Royals are pushing hard for Phillies first baseman Ryan Howard." I'm not sure the Royals are "pusing hard" to get Howard to contribute for them, or if they're trying to get him with the intention of flipping him for a power-hitting corner outfielder. The latter seems like the more likely possibility, what with Howard being a first baseman and the Royals already having at least four guys who are limited to playing first or DH.
  
  Howard's generally viewed as being one of the better hitting prospects in baseball, which is an assertion I can only partially get with. There's no question that many of the skills are there, because Howard's done a fine job of drawing walks (206 in 1637 at-bats) and having a very good isolated power number of .282. However, his strikeouts really concern me the same way Dallas McPherson's do, and for that reason I'm not convinced that Howard controls the strike zone well enough to have Jim Thome's career. Right now, I view him more as a righty-mashing DH, which has value but not nearly as much as Thome II would.
  
  
• By the way, I'm always looking for ways to improve the look and content of the blog, so if you have any suggestions, please e-mail me! Have a great weekend, everybody.

>>After about a half-hour of debating with myself, I caved and saw Resident Evil: Apocalypse last night. I don't think I've ever entered a movie theater with lower expectations for a film, but this one was a pleasant surprise. It was a classic, "so-bad-it-was-good" kind of movie, complete with horrible acting, corny catch phrases, and a total lack of a plot. I really enjoyed Resident for a few other reasons:

1) Hot women
2) Zombies
3) Hot women killing said zombies with big guns

It had everything one looks for in a gory action flick, and there's nothing more badass than girls killing zombies with an assortment of cool-looking weapons. In addition to that, the jerk characters got eaten by the zombies who escaped the wrath of the girls with the guns. I'd give this movie four stars, but that isn't enough. 12 1/2 stars.

>>After the movie, three of my friends and I had a smallish night on the town, which involved nothing more than a quick stop for ice cream and playing around with a digital camera in a SMS parking lot. And we had a great time doing just that, too, with non-stop laughs and smiles along the way. If I can, I'll post the pictures that are appropriate for a blog such as this one. (Meagan and Regina had a little bit too much fun with the camera, if you know what I mean.)

>>Harvard: We Suck. I don't think I even need to comment on this, other than to say that it's clearly the prank of the century.

Another week, another DVD bought. This time, it was Spider-Man 2, which was my second-favorite movie of 2004 behind last week's purchase, The Terminal. Of course, like a kid who just opened that toy he's been coveting for months on Christmas day, I had to drop everything and watch it immediately after getting back to my place. Or, in the case of the toy, play with it immediately after opening it. You get the picture. A couple of other thoughts I've been saving up …

• My daily Bowden Complaint is actually a thank-you to his former employer, the Cincinnati Reds, for saving him from himself by re-signing Paul Wilson. The Reds gave him a pretty good chunk of change ($8.2 million over the next two seasons), which is probably more than he's worth.
  
  But before I get into the whole dollar value thing later, I want to talk briefly about what Wilson's become, which is a pretty consistent 4th or 5th starter, and how he got there. Back before the 2001 season, Wilson was in the "sleeper" column of my fantasy baseball draft sheet, as he was coming off a terrific year with the Devil Rays, posting this line in 51 innings:
  
  

  K/BB	K/9	OPS	ERA
  2.50	7.06	.562	3.35

  
  Most impressive was the one homer he allowed and the outstanding strikeout-to-walk ratio. I was pretty sure the Paul Wilson the Mets had hoped to see before destroying his arm had finally arrived, but after 2001, I was pretty sure I was wrong. He had another decent year, posting another K/BB ratio of more than 2 and striking out 7.08 batters per nine innings, but his hit rate and home run rate skyrocketed. In 2002, his downward slide continued, as his hit and home run rates went up again, and his strikeouts dropped by 28 percent from the previous two seasons.
  
  The Devil Rays eventually gave up on him after 2002, letting Wilson sign with Cincy, and good things have happened for him since then. Look at his trends since 2002:
  
  

  YEAR	K/BB	K/9	OPS	ERA
  2002	1.66	5.16	.830	4.83
  2003	1.86	5.02	.801	4.64
  2004	1.86	5.73	.771	4.36

  
  His steady improvement over the past three seasons is encouraging, but all things considered, it looks like he's settled into an auto pilot mode where we can expect these 185 inning, 4.50 ERA performances for at least three more seasons. He definitely isn't going to run out of gas while he's under contract with Cincinnati, which makes today's announcement only a partial waste of resources for the Reds. I still think similar, less-expensive options are available on the free agent market (Kris Wilson, anyone?), but on a staff with some young arms with promise like Brandon Claussen and Jose Acevedo, Wilson will be a reliable guy Dave Miley can throw every fifth day.
  
  
• Getting back to dollar values, baseball fans typically enjoy discussing how much a free agent is "worth" on the open market. Quite frequently, there are also disagreements between fans, agents, and teams alike on that issue, because putting a dollar value next to a free agent's name is an objective thing. The market usually plays a large role in determining how much money each player will get. To help with this, teams have been given the option of getting a suggested dollar value on a free agent from the commissioner's office.
  
  Basically, the free agent market is all a giant mess right now, but if you're like me, messes can be fun. The Hardball Times has developed a cool thing called "Net Win Shares Value," a calculator that estimates "how much a player was worth, given his contribution to the team's wins and the conditions under which he signed his contract (free agent, arbitration, etc.)." I particularly like the concept of using Win Shares to determine a player's value on the open market, because Bill James' system, flawed as it may be, is still centered around wins and losses, which is the point of baseball in its most watered-down form.
  
  Just for fun, I put in Paul Wilson's information, and the result was a Net Win Shares Value $1,241,994, or significantly less than the $4 million per season deal he signed with the Reds. I can't lay claim to how accurate the NWSV is, but it's really cool no matter what. Assuming the system is accurate, major league GMs and front office-types might be well-advised to at least take a look at this thing. Here are some other projections for prominent free agents:
  
  Carlos Beltran: $14,319,732
  Adrian Beltre: $20,014,876
  Carl Pavano: $10,733,901
  Matt Clement: $3,773,169
  Brad Radke: $8,624,588
  Troy Glaus: $4,616,894