Milton's Monopoly
Some of you might be wondering why I haven’t posted a more in-depth look at Jose Lima’s return to the Royals, and with good reason. But rest assured, because there’s a Voices From The Basement discussion about that very topic coming later this week; I just don’t want to write something about it now and then repeat it later. By the way, if you look to your right, you’ll see that I finally figured out how to post a Links section. There are some high-quality blogs over there you should check out.
On to more important topics at hand …
On to more important topics at hand …
- It doesn’t mean I think any more of the guy than I did before, but Jim Bowden’s off the hook. Reds GM Dan O’Brien made damn sure of that by making the worst free agent signing of 2004 by far, guaranteeing Eric Milton three years and $25.5 million. Well, the worst free agent signing for a team, because Milton’s probably still on cloud nine right now. But I’ll get to that later.
I’ve always been curious as to what the fascination with Milton’s all about. Maybe it’s his left-handedness. Perhaps his stuff makes people think he’s better than he really is. But no matter what, it stretches from fans to front office members to managers to other players even though he’s been a steady, but incredibly average pitcher during his tenure; his career ERA of 4.76 is just slightly above the league’s of 4.73. To his credit, he’s taken his reputation and cashed it into about $22 million worth of career earnings coming into 2005, when his shiny new contract will kick into gear.
The interesting thing is that Matt Clement received the exact same contract from the Red Sox, and unless Milton was allowed to pitch all of his games against the Royals (13-2, 3.67 ERA in 17 career starts), there’s no question which of the two is the better pitcher has the best chance of earning his pay. Their career ERAs are pretty similar (4.76 and 4.34), but Milton has a chance of having some Lima-esque problems with the home run ball at Great American Ballpark. Clement, on the other hand, is a groundball/power kind of pitcher who hasn't allowed opposing batters an OPS north of .700 since 2001.
If that wasn’t enough, I ran the data for both pitchers in The Hardball Times’ Net Win Shares Value Calculator, which takes a player’s contract status, Win Shares, Win Shares Above Average, and previous season’s salary into consideration. The result is an estimated salary according to the player’s production. Some earlier projections I ran turned out to be pretty accurate (Brad Radke and Carl Pavano), and I’d expect Carlos Beltran to get around $15 million a season when he signs as well. Anyway, Clement’s NWSV is $3,773,169. Milton’s? $609,201. Both are pretty far off what both actually received, but it’s clear that Milton is being extremely overpaid even if you don’t buy into the sabermetric way of thinking.
Of course, one man’s stupidity is another man’s gain, and Eric’s now a much, much richer man because of it. I couldn’t be happier for him, especially since he’s going to stay in the Senior Circuit and won’t be able to torment the Royals for awhile longer. Some of what he said at the press conference is absolutely priceless:
"I was very surprised. They had not been very active in the past."
Six zeroes trailing a 25 tends to do that to people, dontcha think?
"Things changed from week to week. New teams came up, and teams dropped out and went in different directions. Once they got into the mix, they were pretty relentless. It just made me feel really wanted, that's for sure."
"I want to be on a winner. That was a big key for me going into this whole free agent thing. I think this team is headed in the right direction now, and hopefully in the next couple of years we'll keep improving."
Sure, Eric, you want to be on a winner. That’s why you turned down the Yankees, Red Sox, and Dodgers, three playoff teams from a season ago.
I don’t think any team, no matter how hard they try, could possibly top this move in badness. I hope the Reds are ready to stick with Milton for the full three years, because this is one of those unmovable contracts no team has any business entering into.
- I entered into an interesting discussion at one of my favorite Royals message board stops yesterday regarding which catcher Zack Greinke is most effective with. The numbers, albeit somewhat skewed for a couple of reasons, are at least somewhat interesting, I think. Here's what I wrote:
Santiago: 2.76 ERA (26 IP)
Buck: 5.03 (59.1 IP)
Castillo: 3.51 (46.2 IP)
Stinnett: 3.46 (18 IP)
So you're right, Greinke did pitch better with Castillo behind the dish. However, this is sort of the same thing the Braves did with Javy Lopez and Greg Maddux's personal catchers. Yeah, the pitcher is more comfortable, but the loss of offensive ability from Buck to Castillo outweighs whatever comfort level Zack has with Castillo.
EDIT: After double-checking, my numbers are wrong. Five extra IP got thrown in there somewhere, but I don't feel like going back and tallying the innings and earned runs again in ESPN.com's game log. I'm just going to call it "close enough."
BUCK
ERA: 5.17
WHIP:1.28
K/BB:3.57
K/9: 7.18
HR/9:1.58
BB/9:2.01
CASTILLO
ERA: 3.28
WHIP:1.24
K/BB:6.00
K/9: 6.55
HR/9:1.76
BB/9:1.09
I don't know what to make of all that, but my best guess: Greinke is the same pitcher no matter who's throwing down the signs. He has a better ERA with Castillo, which looks to be a function of fewer walks (don't know how you peg that on a catcher). Most of the other numbers suggest parity, but Greinke's K rate is strangely higher with Buck.
I don't think there are enough innings to draw any sort of conclusion. And even if there were a few more innings ... there might be too many biases anyway (home/road, Greinke learning as the season wore on, etc.)