Calling All Innings Starters
The deadline for teams to offer their free agents arbitration has come and gone, meaning we're going to see the Hot Stove League pick up some serious steam in the days leading to the Winter Meetings. This also means the Royals will become slightly more aggressive in which players they pursue, although I'd be surprised if they sign anybody before the market shakes out.
We know that in all probability, the Royals won't be signing anybody who was offered arbitration by his former team. Why? A) The Royals won't want to lose any draft picks and B) Players who were offered arby are probably too expensive anyway. While there weren't any Power Hitting Corner Outfielders (TM) within the Royals price range whose old team declined arby, there are a few interesting Innings Starters (TM) and an intriguing relief pitcher I think the R's should take a look at:
Innings Starters ...
Shawn Estes (COL): He's durable but also terrible, which makes him half of the perfect candidate for what the Royals are looking for. Many will look at his sparkling 15-8 record and assume he's turned some sort of a corner, but he hasn't. His last season with an ERA+ of 100 came in 2001 with the Giants. Although he didn't completely embarass himself in Coors Field last year (5.84 ERA), his control is awful, which isn't going to make the R's infield defense any better. Think Darrell May without the command.
Jose Lima (LAD): As much as I hate to admit it, Lima looks like a pretty attractive option because of the lack of talent surrounding him in the free agent pool. I still contend that he's a bad pitcher, but he's probably going to be a hell of a lot better than Estes, and he DOES get bonus points for his personality. If he'd pitch for less than a million bucks, I could deal with him on a one-year contract. But he isn't as attractive an option as ...
Esteban Loaiza (NYY): His 2003 was about as real as Britney Spears' chest, but the Royals aren't looking for a #1 starter. His career ERA is roughly league average for that time span (4.70 compared to the league's 4.62), and I really like his peripheral stats:
BB/9: 2.61
K/BB: 2.24/1
His career K/9 ratio is workable too (5.85). Problems with the home run ball have driven his ERA up, but there's a darned good chance Kauffman Stadium's dimensions would alleviate that at least slightly. I'd give him $1 million, tell him to do the best he can, and then trade him at the deadline. He looks like the best option.
Another starter ...
Hideo Nomo (LAD): If he's healthy, I think this might be a decent risk. He's been steadily declining for the past three seasons because his K/9 and K/BB ratios have been going downhill fast. However, at least part of his disastrous 2004 has to be chalked up to a rotator cuff problem which, if it's been fixed, could make him a bargain. The Royals have entirely too many guys who pitch to contact, and a healthy Nomo could help break the monotony. Hell, it was just two seasons ago that he had a K/9 ratio of well over 7, which is Ryan-esque among this group of pitchers.
To sum it up, Estes doesn't fit, Loaiza and Lima are the safer bets, and Nomo is the guy with the highest upside. With the additional money Allard has in his pocket, he might be able to get both Loaiza and Nomo if he needed to.
Other guys ...
Steve Reed, RHP (COL): It's possible Reed's going to call it a career, but if he doesn't, the Royals should be all over him. Sure he's going to be 40, but all he's done for 12 seasons is be one of the most underrated relievers in baseball with a career 3.51 ERA. In addition, Reed's showing few signs of slowing down. In the past two years pitching at Coors Field, he's posted a 3.49 ERA in 129.1 innings at an advanced age. Pick him up for half a million bucks, watch hiim throw strikes and get guys out, and then move him at the deadline.
Jose Hernandez, IF (LAD): Speaking of underrated baseball players, Hernandez is one, and now I'm wishing Baird hadn't been so quick in signing Chris Truby. Hernandez is going to strike out like nobody's business, but he also draws his share of walks and hits for moderate power. Expecting a .910 OPS out of him again would be lunacy, but the team that signs him is going to get something like .250/.320/.430 from him, or a replacement-level hitter. He's certainly preferable to Truby because he'll probably have more trade value.
We know that in all probability, the Royals won't be signing anybody who was offered arbitration by his former team. Why? A) The Royals won't want to lose any draft picks and B) Players who were offered arby are probably too expensive anyway. While there weren't any Power Hitting Corner Outfielders (TM) within the Royals price range whose old team declined arby, there are a few interesting Innings Starters (TM) and an intriguing relief pitcher I think the R's should take a look at:
Innings Starters ...
Shawn Estes (COL): He's durable but also terrible, which makes him half of the perfect candidate for what the Royals are looking for. Many will look at his sparkling 15-8 record and assume he's turned some sort of a corner, but he hasn't. His last season with an ERA+ of 100 came in 2001 with the Giants. Although he didn't completely embarass himself in Coors Field last year (5.84 ERA), his control is awful, which isn't going to make the R's infield defense any better. Think Darrell May without the command.
Jose Lima (LAD): As much as I hate to admit it, Lima looks like a pretty attractive option because of the lack of talent surrounding him in the free agent pool. I still contend that he's a bad pitcher, but he's probably going to be a hell of a lot better than Estes, and he DOES get bonus points for his personality. If he'd pitch for less than a million bucks, I could deal with him on a one-year contract. But he isn't as attractive an option as ...
Esteban Loaiza (NYY): His 2003 was about as real as Britney Spears' chest, but the Royals aren't looking for a #1 starter. His career ERA is roughly league average for that time span (4.70 compared to the league's 4.62), and I really like his peripheral stats:
BB/9: 2.61
K/BB: 2.24/1
His career K/9 ratio is workable too (5.85). Problems with the home run ball have driven his ERA up, but there's a darned good chance Kauffman Stadium's dimensions would alleviate that at least slightly. I'd give him $1 million, tell him to do the best he can, and then trade him at the deadline. He looks like the best option.
Another starter ...
Hideo Nomo (LAD): If he's healthy, I think this might be a decent risk. He's been steadily declining for the past three seasons because his K/9 and K/BB ratios have been going downhill fast. However, at least part of his disastrous 2004 has to be chalked up to a rotator cuff problem which, if it's been fixed, could make him a bargain. The Royals have entirely too many guys who pitch to contact, and a healthy Nomo could help break the monotony. Hell, it was just two seasons ago that he had a K/9 ratio of well over 7, which is Ryan-esque among this group of pitchers.
To sum it up, Estes doesn't fit, Loaiza and Lima are the safer bets, and Nomo is the guy with the highest upside. With the additional money Allard has in his pocket, he might be able to get both Loaiza and Nomo if he needed to.
Other guys ...
Steve Reed, RHP (COL): It's possible Reed's going to call it a career, but if he doesn't, the Royals should be all over him. Sure he's going to be 40, but all he's done for 12 seasons is be one of the most underrated relievers in baseball with a career 3.51 ERA. In addition, Reed's showing few signs of slowing down. In the past two years pitching at Coors Field, he's posted a 3.49 ERA in 129.1 innings at an advanced age. Pick him up for half a million bucks, watch hiim throw strikes and get guys out, and then move him at the deadline.
Jose Hernandez, IF (LAD): Speaking of underrated baseball players, Hernandez is one, and now I'm wishing Baird hadn't been so quick in signing Chris Truby. Hernandez is going to strike out like nobody's business, but he also draws his share of walks and hits for moderate power. Expecting a .910 OPS out of him again would be lunacy, but the team that signs him is going to get something like .250/.320/.430 from him, or a replacement-level hitter. He's certainly preferable to Truby because he'll probably have more trade value.