Voices From The Basement: Believe It!
Kevin: I guess I can break out my t-shirt again, because you-know-who will be a Royal in 2005. One year at $2.5 million for the second installment of Lima Time! has me questioning just what Allard Baird's doing, and the ladies of KC questioning how they're going to make their escape.
But in all seriousness, my reactions to this news are that the Royals gave him ENTIRELY too much money, will probably give him too important of a role as a staff leader, and are still hung up on 2003. I think what we're seeing is Allard making another panic move, but we're just going to have to live with it.
Since Lima's going to be here, we have to hope that he pitches well enough that Allard can flip him for a Grade-C prospect in June or July. And that might be a fairly realistic scenario, I think. Lima was pretty good at Chavez Ravine last year, only allowing batters to hit .255/.278/.421, essentially turning every guy into Tony Batista. He was terrible on the road, of course, but I don't think that's a very good way to estimate how good he'll be in Kauffman. Last year, the Park Factor for The K was 910, and Dodger Stadium's was 909. Jose's probably in line for a regression, but I don't think he'll be so terrible we'll look back on this as a signing that rates an Albie Lopez on the terrible scale.
Daniel: You can break out your t-shirt, but if you do anything with it except dry your car, I think you might be expecting too much.
In line with that, Allard Baird and many Royals fans will be expecting too much from Jose Lima. Baird, I think, is focusing on the hope that Lima, like his previous two seasons, will simply not be bad. Many fans are focusing on his pretty, shiny won/loss record over the last two years, as if that's a barometer of how Lima will perform in 2005.
Baird could be right, but the fans will be wrong. Lima's smoke and mirrors act will experience strong winds and a sledgehammer in 2005. Those terrible road splits you mentioned? They can't be ignored (1.47 WHIP, 5.56 ERA, and 2.3 HR's per 9 innings). The WHIP and ERA are at about Darrell May and Brian Anderson of 2004 levels, and the HR/9 is actually worse. While not necessarily a good barometer of how Lima will pitch at Kauffman, those numbers are perfectly acceptable for Lima's road starts with the Royals in 2005.
As far as the rest, well, indeed the park factors were similar for Chavez Ravine and Kauffman last year, but forgive me if I put a bunch more emphasis on the numbers from Dodger Stadium, since that edifice has had about four decades to prove itself to be a pitcher's park, while Kauffman's new dimensions have just last year under its belt.
Lima Time! was fun and cool in 2003, and Lima gave the team a boost during his brief tenure. But besides dance a little and pump his fist, his numbers from that season indicate that the level of respect Lima gets from Royals fans is disproportionate to how well he actually pitched. Remember, Lima pitched for much better teams in the 2003 Royals and the 2004 Dodgers (especially offensively for the Royals in 2003), and this Royals team is likely to be nowhere near .500. Also remember, even Chris George was 9-6 in 2003.
Kevin: Well, I guess I'm just looking for reasons to like the move with the park factors, because there aren't many other reasons to think Lima won't totally stink.
With that said, I'm sure Allard knows what Lima is, and that's a slightly below-average pitcher ERA-wise with good control and a problem with the gopher ball. It seems that kind of a pitcher could've been had from the minor-league free agent market for roughly a tenth of Lima's salary. However, with Baird's intelligent use of said market, there has to be some other reason he chose Lima over Esteban Loaiza and others.
I think a lot of that decision had to do with who Jose Lima is: A good guy whose song-and-dance act is purely authentic. And when his team's going good, there isn't a more fun player out there in professional baseball. I don't think that's worth $2.5 million, of course, but I think it was the reason Lima's the guy playing Darrell May's role in 2005.
Daniel: It is indeed difficult to knock Baird without seeing what Lima can do in his first few starts, but like you said, on the surface it looks like a move that could have been duplicated for much less money. However, if it brings a few more fans out to the park (and from the little I've heard to this point, it looks like it actually could), and gets the fans a little more excited to see Royals baseball, I suppose there are worse ways to spend $2.5 million for one season. For better or worse, it'll be Lima Time!
But in all seriousness, my reactions to this news are that the Royals gave him ENTIRELY too much money, will probably give him too important of a role as a staff leader, and are still hung up on 2003. I think what we're seeing is Allard making another panic move, but we're just going to have to live with it.
Since Lima's going to be here, we have to hope that he pitches well enough that Allard can flip him for a Grade-C prospect in June or July. And that might be a fairly realistic scenario, I think. Lima was pretty good at Chavez Ravine last year, only allowing batters to hit .255/.278/.421, essentially turning every guy into Tony Batista. He was terrible on the road, of course, but I don't think that's a very good way to estimate how good he'll be in Kauffman. Last year, the Park Factor for The K was 910, and Dodger Stadium's was 909. Jose's probably in line for a regression, but I don't think he'll be so terrible we'll look back on this as a signing that rates an Albie Lopez on the terrible scale.
Daniel: You can break out your t-shirt, but if you do anything with it except dry your car, I think you might be expecting too much.
In line with that, Allard Baird and many Royals fans will be expecting too much from Jose Lima. Baird, I think, is focusing on the hope that Lima, like his previous two seasons, will simply not be bad. Many fans are focusing on his pretty, shiny won/loss record over the last two years, as if that's a barometer of how Lima will perform in 2005.
Baird could be right, but the fans will be wrong. Lima's smoke and mirrors act will experience strong winds and a sledgehammer in 2005. Those terrible road splits you mentioned? They can't be ignored (1.47 WHIP, 5.56 ERA, and 2.3 HR's per 9 innings). The WHIP and ERA are at about Darrell May and Brian Anderson of 2004 levels, and the HR/9 is actually worse. While not necessarily a good barometer of how Lima will pitch at Kauffman, those numbers are perfectly acceptable for Lima's road starts with the Royals in 2005.
As far as the rest, well, indeed the park factors were similar for Chavez Ravine and Kauffman last year, but forgive me if I put a bunch more emphasis on the numbers from Dodger Stadium, since that edifice has had about four decades to prove itself to be a pitcher's park, while Kauffman's new dimensions have just last year under its belt.
Lima Time! was fun and cool in 2003, and Lima gave the team a boost during his brief tenure. But besides dance a little and pump his fist, his numbers from that season indicate that the level of respect Lima gets from Royals fans is disproportionate to how well he actually pitched. Remember, Lima pitched for much better teams in the 2003 Royals and the 2004 Dodgers (especially offensively for the Royals in 2003), and this Royals team is likely to be nowhere near .500. Also remember, even Chris George was 9-6 in 2003.
Kevin: Well, I guess I'm just looking for reasons to like the move with the park factors, because there aren't many other reasons to think Lima won't totally stink.
With that said, I'm sure Allard knows what Lima is, and that's a slightly below-average pitcher ERA-wise with good control and a problem with the gopher ball. It seems that kind of a pitcher could've been had from the minor-league free agent market for roughly a tenth of Lima's salary. However, with Baird's intelligent use of said market, there has to be some other reason he chose Lima over Esteban Loaiza and others.
I think a lot of that decision had to do with who Jose Lima is: A good guy whose song-and-dance act is purely authentic. And when his team's going good, there isn't a more fun player out there in professional baseball. I don't think that's worth $2.5 million, of course, but I think it was the reason Lima's the guy playing Darrell May's role in 2005.
Daniel: It is indeed difficult to knock Baird without seeing what Lima can do in his first few starts, but like you said, on the surface it looks like a move that could have been duplicated for much less money. However, if it brings a few more fans out to the park (and from the little I've heard to this point, it looks like it actually could), and gets the fans a little more excited to see Royals baseball, I suppose there are worse ways to spend $2.5 million for one season. For better or worse, it'll be Lima Time!