Kevin's Royals Blog

As I alluded to in yesterday’s entry, the Royals did a darned fine job of, for the most part, maximizing the talent of their 25-man roster. However, I still don’t understand the logic behind Denny Bautista being the fifth starter when a serviceable pitcher like Mike Wood would’ve happily assumed the job in the short-term, allowing Bautista to clean up his control in the minor leagues. Additionally, I really don’t like the Royals carrying 12 pitchers on the roster because of the tactical limitations it gives Tony Pena when the time comes to send a pinch-hitter to the plate or a defensive replacement to the field.

As it stands now, Pena will have four guys on his bench when the season begins on Monday in Detroit: catcher Alberto Castillo, utilityman Tony Graffanino, and outfielders Emil Brown and Eli Marrero. Castillo’s your classic backup catcher (meaning he can’t hit). Graffanino, while being a fine infielder, sports a career OPS of just .718. Brown’s only struggled in his prior experiences against Major League pitching, and Marrero, coming off his career season, is a sure bet to see his production take a turn for the worse. If disaster strikes and two infielders go down with injuries in one game, I’m curious as to what the Royals’ backup plan is, as Graffanino’s the only guy on the roster capable of playing third, short, or second.

As much as it pains me to say this, if I was given the option of having Nate Field as the 12th man on the pitching staff or carrying Joe McEwing or Denny Hocking as infield insurance policies, I’d take the latter in an instant. There just isn’t a need here for 12 pitchers, and Pena’s ability to manipulate matchups is going to suffer as a result.

American Idol Update

It seems very, very wrong to me that a talented vocalist in Jessica Sierra was sent home last night, while an untalented, overweight, and generally terrible singer like Scott Savol gets to torture Idol viewers with his off-key tunes for another week. I can’t figure out who’d vote for that guy or why.

At any rate, KRB favorite Carrie Underwood’s still in the competition, and that’s only a great thing.

Springfield Cardinals Roster Set

The Springfield Cardinals set the roster they’ll use to begin the season on Saturday against The Fighting LaRussas, which, aside from guys I’ve followed in the past like pitcher Nick Stocks and outfielder Shaun Boyd, is comprised of a bunch of guys I’ve never heard of before. One of those guys, 20-year-old pitcher Stuart Pomeranz, has surprisingly good control for a pitcher who’s listed at 6-7 and 220 pounds, so he might be one to watch this summer.

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Ironically, Tuesday, March 29, 2005 will go down in history as one of the most important dates in Royals history. What’s so ironic about that? That 10, 15, or 20 years from now, nobody will remember why. Nobody – perhaps not even myself – will associate 3/29/05 with That Time The Kansas City Royals Chose Calvin Pickering Over Ken Harvey, but if the Blue Wave have rattled off a few playoff appearances in the next decade or two, the cause of that success can be traced back to yesterday’s events.

It’s important to understand that our now-successful FREE CALVIN PICKERING! march wasn’t so much about the actual act of sending Harvey down to the minor leagues in order to make room for Pickering. Like so many other things in our daily lives, what mattered more was what the act represented. On Tuesday, the Royals represented the franchise Rob Neyer, Rany Jazayerli, Bill James, Daniel Smith, and countless other KC fans always wished they were, and hoped they are. On Tuesday, the Royals took the next step towards becoming a respected organization in the Major League Baseball societal spectrum. They acknowledged that results matter.

Had they not opted to ship Harvey down to Omaha, it certainly wouldn’t have been the end of the world. After all, he can hit left-handed pitching pretty well, which would’ve made him a decent platoon partner for Pickering when the opposing team starts a southpaw. He also seems to be the best defensive first baseman in the system, and has always hit for a reasonably-high batting average. All of that sounds good, but it isn’t, at least not when compared to what Pickering can do on a baseball field. Three years ago, the Royals brass would’ve fallen for the act like a drug dealer walking into a sting operation, but they proved they wouldn’t now, and won’t in the future. No longer will a finished Kevin Appier be dragged to Opening Day just because he’s a recognizable face to Royals fans. Never again will we see bad players like Scott Pose, Brian Meadows, Doug Henry, and Chad Kreuter get too much playing time because of their “veteran presence.” The old Royals would’ve chosen sentiment over talent, but they proved that those days are long gone, and that the finishing touches of a Moneyball organization are being laid into place like bricks on a brand-new chimney.

One overlooked aspect of “The Moneyball Way” is that for a team in any market to achieve its greatest success, it must choose to focus on what a player can do as opposed to what he can’t. In a way, the Royals are guilty of doing the latter with Harvey this season, but make no mistake: he forced their hand in this decision. He might be upset because of a feeling that he has “tenure” with the team and that he was lied to, but Allard Baird made himself painfully clear at the beginning of this competition. To keep his job, Harvey had to show an improved approach at home plate. He had to accept the fact that if he didn’t show an increased willingness to work himself into hitters’ counts, that he’d be sent to a place where he could continue to work on such a thing and also not hurt the Royals’ chances of winning games in the process. He did neither, hit a paltry .238 with only three extra-base hits as a result, and Baird kept his word. After all, results matter.

But perhaps “results matter” should be amended to say “track record and results matter,” because Pickering didn’t exactly light the world on fire with his .222 average and, like Harvey, a homer and two doubles. Unlike Harvey, however, Pickering’s actually shown a very solid approach and very good plate discipline throughout his career, and it’s clear that Baird favors his ability to get on base over Harvey’s … inability to get on base. One could make the argument that Harvey actually had a slightly better spring than Pickering did, but Baird put his words – that he looks more at how a player achieves his statistics in spring training than the statistics themselves – into action.

The new line of thinking extended past Pickering’s newfound freedom. Jimmy Gobble, the team’s winningest pitcher a year ago, was also shipped to Omaha not only because of a crowded pitching staff, but also because he has to work on missing more bats. When it comes to the starting third baseman, the team didn’t allow the temptation of acquiring another stopgap player to get in the way of a clearly-ready Mark Teahen, just as the Royals recognized the very-underrated Ruben Gotay’s hitting talent at second base. And perhaps most importantly, they weren’t at all swayed by Harvey’s designation of being selected a 2004 All-Star, seeing it for what it was: a choice-by-default because of the flawed way baseball selects the participants of the Mid-summer Classic.

In the end, what we have is evidence that the Royals are on the right track towards becoming a winning baseball team. Prior to yesterday, I think most of us wanted to believe that the thought processes of the men and women running the show had changed from the archaic baseball beliefs of the old regime, but it was only a hope and a belief. Now we have proof. We as fans have been presented with the knowledge that a better tomorrow IS on the way. And until we get to tomorrow when the Baseball Gods finally shine upon Kauffman Stadium, we can rest assured that not only do results matter, but that winning does too.

As it relates to this blog, I anticipated there’d be a dramatic shift from the offseason to the regular season in that I’d quickly go from having nothing to write about to having too much to write about. However, I didn’t think the change would be quite this dramatic. For example, last night I attended a very THX-1138-esque confusing (yet rewarding) training session at Hammons Field to prepare for the 11,000-person chaos that’ll ensue this weekend when the St. Louis Cardinals come to town. The rewarding part was meeting an incredibly beautiful girl, and setting up a “date” to see the Missouri State baseball Bears in action on Friday night. Not only is she gorgeous, but she’s also a baseball fan, meaning I’m in complete shock I could meet (and get the phone number of) a girl who seems too good to be true. Anyway, I’m not going to write about my experience last night at Hammons; that story might be better saved for Monday. I’m sure the insanity of 11,000 drunk and confused Cardinals fans will make for quite the weekend recap.

As far as tonight goes, the word on the street is that the Royals are very close to announcing their 25-man roster, and that we could know who made the team and who didn’t by tomorrow. As a result, another word on the street is that the FREE CALVIN PICKERING! movement may have actually worked. Allard Baird, reportedly bothered that Ken Harvey’s continued to display a terrible approach at home plate, is supposedly leaning towards sending him to Triple-A Omaha to have him work on his plate discipline and keeping Pickering as the team’s designated hitter. Keep in mind that nothing’s official yet, but this has to be considered good news. As soon as I know what they’ve decided, I’ll make sure to inform you all on this blog.

Pitching Update

Kevin Appier’s leaning towards retirement, and I can’t say I blame him. If anyone’s ever “left it all on the field,” it’s Appier. He was one of the finest pitchers of his generation, but he’s only throwing in the mid-80s on a good day, so it’s time for him to go.

Denny Bautista’s performance against the Padres will probably be enough to win him the fifth starter’s spot in the minds of the Royals brass, but it still isn’t enough for me. He’s now walked ten guys against 18 strikeouts in 19 2/3 innings, peripheral statistics that just don’t convince me that he’s suddenly found his control and won’t tank in games that count. I still think Mike Wood’s the better choice for the present time. By the way, one has to wonder why the Royals are willing to put Bautista (who hasn’t seen Triple-A) in the starting rotation, especially when they’re so reluctant to stick Mark Teahen, who’s already seen Triple-A, in the majors because of concerns over how he’d handle it mentally. It seems that if there are any mental states that they need to be concerned about, it’s Bautista’s.

Music to write by:

Train: When I Look To The Sky
AC/DC: Shook Me All Night Long
JoJo: Leave (Get Out)
Aerosmith: Cryin’
Seether f. Amy Lee: Broken
Bush: Glycerine

It’d be fair to say that I didn’t do much of anything this weekend besides watch movies with some good friends. In no particular order, I took in:

Exorcist: The Beginning
Shall We Dance?
Little Black Book
Be Cool
Wicker Park
Austin Powers: The Spy Who Shagged Me
The Score

There’s some comedy, some romantic comedy, and a dose of dramatic comedy in Exorcist (meaning it's really stupid). At least it’s a well-rounded list, right? Opening Day’s only a week away, I have more thoughts on the world of baseball, so here goes:

On Saturday, seven more poor souls were cut from the Royals’ major league camp. Pitchers Justin Huisman, Santiago Ramirez, and Ryan Jensen, infielder Luis Ugueto, catcher Matt Tupman, and outfielder Matt Diaz were reassigned to minor league camp, while pitcher Ambiorix Burgos was optioned to Double-A Wichita. While none of the cuts themselves were surprising, I was nothing short of disappointed when I read this on kcroyals.com:

Burgos, a starter previously in the minors, will pitch in relief for Wichita.

I’ve discussed the possibility of Burgos becoming a reliever before in this space, but now that it’s actually happened, I’m horrified. There’s little to no question that he’s is the most talented young pitcher in the team’s pipeline. In 174 2/3 innings of career work, he’s struck out 219 batters while allowing only 7.68 hits per nine innings pitched. His control can be very shaky, as he’s also dished out 97 walks. However, he won’t turn 21 until April 19, and he isn’t the first young guy with an electric arm to have control problems in the early part of his career.

Without knowing what exactly the Royals are thinking by having him pitch out of relief, it seems incredibly bizarre that they appear content grooming him as a pitcher who could dominate out of the ‘pen as opposed to dominating in the starting rotation. The way I see it, guys like Burgos who throw 97 mph with filthy sliders and have had success starting baseball games at 20 should be given every opportunity to make it as a starting pitcher. And if he proves that he can’t hack it in the rotation for whatever reason (endurance, control, concentration, lack of a third pitch), THEN the Royals should try to salvage his career by making him a closer.

Closers are made, not born, and the formula for developing a big-league door-slammer isn’t “Give a guy a lot of save chances in the minor leagues.” The Royals are making a big mistake if they’ve already become tunnel-visioned with Ambiorix, and are somehow already convinced that he can’t start baseball games.

Royals GM Allard Baird expects to have his roster set by Wednesday, meaning the next three days of spring training are do-or-die blowout days for guys like Abraham Nunez and Dennis Tankersley. To the best of my knowledge, both of those players are out of options, meaning they’d have to clear waivers in order to be sent to the bus leagues.

I don’t suspect the Royals would be too heartbroken over losing a non-factor like Nunez to another club, but I think they need to give Tankersley every opportunity to succeed before giving up on him as the Padres did this past November. Dishing out four walks in a third of an inning on Sunday definitely didn’t help his chances of making the team, but he still has great stuff and the upside of a quality third starter. Besides, he was the prize of the Darrell May/Terrence Long swap, and people shouldn’t give up on prizes before they’ve been given every opportunity to lose their jobs.

Want to hear something encouraging? At the end of this radio interview, Baird mentioned that he liked seeing some of his pitchers turn into strikeout pitchers, because (paraphrasing) “When every ball is being put into play, you’re in trouble.” Coming from a guy who was telling his pitchers to induce contact last spring, that’s a very nice 180-degree turn.

Oakland A’s ace/goofball Barry Zito and SI.com have hooked up on an awesome project. Zito, an aspiring photographer, has snapped a bunch of interesting pictures of his experiences in spring training.

Does anyone else have a bad feeling that Juan Gonzalez is going to have a huge season for the Indians? I don’t have any kind of solid data to support my hypothesis, but we know that anything that CAN go wrong for the Royals DOES go wrong for the Royals. Leave it to me to complain about something when we’re seven days away from Opening Day, eh?

Be sure to check out Sprayahen’s St. Louis Cardinals and Other Notes on the State of Baseball. It’s a very long-winded title, but there’s quality writing over there by Spencer Hendricks and Brian Vaughan, two good friends of mine from high school. What they’ve done is combine humor, sarcasm, and baseball – three of my favorite things in the world. It’s possible that some writing of mine will appear there in the very near future, so if you have a few minutes, give their page a look. It’ll be worth your time.

As far as articles I have written go, head on over to Orange & Black Baseball for my thoughts on steroids and how they relate to the Hall of Fame.

Initially, I was very much against a journeyman like Emil Brown making the Royals’ 25-man roster on the merits of his spring training performance. As I’ve written before, I think allowing things like “open competitions” for everyday jobs in camp will lead teams to make more bad decisions than good ones. After all, a 50 at-bat stretch is a 50 at-bat stretch whether it comes in early March, making it more noticeable but less meaningful, or in the middle of July, making it less noticeable but more meaningful. Anyway, when the Kansas City Star hasn’t been writing about Guy Hansen’s work this preseason, Brown’s been the story in Surprise, as he’s demolished Cactus League pitching to the tune of a .455 batting average and a Bondsian .848 slugging percentage.

Needless to say, the Royals are absolutely enamored with that performance, and Brown’s making it very, very hard on them to not keep him over a guy like, say, Abraham Nunez. In fact, GM Allard Baird likes what he’s done so much, he even dropped the possibility that Brown could be the starting right fielder on Opening Day. A few weeks ago – before I’d done any research on Brown – that was my greatest fear, the Royals just handing out a starting job like candy. Totally eschewing a player’s past and focusing only on what he’s done against several minor league pitchers in meaningless baseball scrimmages has kick-started more than one undeserved major league career, and I didn’t want to see that happen (again) to the Royals.

Fortunately, my fear proved to be an irrational one for a couple of reasons. For one, when talking baseball with people, I often bring up that while a result is important, understanding the process used to achieve that result is almost as important. In the case of Emil Brown, Baird clearly doesn’t like him only because he’s hit .455 so far. In the Star story I linked earlier, he was quoted as saying the following:

“If this kid keeps having the same approach, he might be the everyday guy (in right field). I don't care about numbers in spring training. I care about the approach.”

While the 30-year-old Brown’s certainly no “kid,” I was encouraged by both reading this in today’s Star and by hearing Baird say the same thing in a radio interview about the other Royals players who’re “on the bubble,” so to speak. Of course, I’m taking him at his word and assuming that Brown’s shown the ability to work himself into hitters’ counts and take a walk if it’s presented to him. (I’ve yet to find a web site that lists walks among its spring training statistics.) At any rate, virtually nobody can post an isolated slugging percentage of nearly .400 by swinging at anything thrown in the vicinity of home plate, so Brown’s certainly doing something right.

As the article continued, Baird went on to say that he views Brown as “an undervalued player,” and that the organization sees him as another Raul Ibanez. My curiosity was peaked at this point because Ibanez was undoubtedly Baird’s finest “free talent” pickup to date, and the Royals parlayed him into a couple of draft picks when he became expensive and returned to Seattle. From an offensive standpoint, it’s actually pretty creepy how similar their minor-league unadjusted rate stats are:

	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Raul Ibanez	2323	.295	.365	.473	.838
Emil Brown	2922	.295	.365	.452	.817

Apparently, Baird knew what he was talking about when he made that comparison. As if identical batting averages and on-base percentages weren’t enough, the similarities don’t stop there. Although the Royals picked up Ibanez when he was 28 compared to Brown’s 30 years of age, both players didn't initally show an inability to even make good-enough contact to hold down a steady job on a major league roster. At the same time, both players showed a reasonably good knowledge of the strike zone even through their struggles. However, Brown’s also struck out in roughly one-third of his major league at-bats, a fraction that will have to come down. As a non-power hitter, so he can’t get away with that.

As their efforts to acquire a guy like Austin Kearns have apparently stalled, the question becomes how Brown will fit in with the Royals initially, assuming his hot start, speed, and defensive prowess gets him a job. Nunez was an organizational favorite due to the many, many things he can do on a baseball field, but all he’s shown so far is an ability to draw a lot of walks. Being able to do that is great, but after his terrible spring training and terrible 221 at-bat trial with the Royals late last season, it’s pretty apparent that even hitting .250 is going to be a huge challenge for him. Drawing all the free passes in the world doesn’t do anything if a player can barely lift his average above the Mendoza line. Ken Phelps All-Star Aaron Guiel has probably done enough to get one more opportunity, although I suspect that his 2003 season was likely his career season. At 32 and with poor eyesight, he would best serve as a platoon partner for Brown, should the Royals choose to go that route.

The point is that among the guys not making guaranteed money, Emil Brown just might be the best of a sorry lot. The likelihood is that he won’t hit and will therefore lose his job, but there’s definitely an Ibanez-esque upside, too. Let’s just hope that if the former proves to be true, the Royals won’t continue to hang on, waiting for the latter to happen.

Brace yourselves, Royals fans, because the Catfight of the Century is about to commence under a hot Arizona sun.

However, I'm sorry to report that the catfight won't be between Catherine Bell and Jessica Alba in nothing but Zack Greinke jerseys. We'll have to settle for Denny Hocking battling former St. Louis Cardinals cult hero Joe McEwing for the right to be the no-hit, moderately good-fielding, jack-of-all-trades utility man. That certainly isn't my idea of a fantasy, but I'd bet Tony Muser's going to love every minute of it.

Just as a quick point of reference, Kevin’s Royals Blog went over 10,000 hits late yesterday afternoon, a milestone I’m quite proud of. My thanks goes to every last one of you who take the time to load up and read this page every day. Here’s to many, many more thousands of hits down the road. Now, some links to Royals-related items:

Royals GM Allard Baird (who is one of my heroes) did a very interesting interview with MLB.com during yesterday’s game with the Chicago Cubs. I never walk away unimpressed after listening to him on the radio or watching him on TV because he’s extremely well-spoken, clearly has a good head on his shoulders, and seems like a guy who’s always prepared. In this particular segment, Baird repeatedly stated that using the team’s small-market status as an excuse for not winning is a cop-out, and that the Royals just have to find ways to make it work despite the reality of their situation. It wasn’t but five years ago that the Royals frequently whined about a lack of money, providing further evidence that although his team hasn’t won anything during his tenure, Baird has this organization in a better position to win than they’ve been in for years.

Bob Dutton of the Kansas City Star wrote an informative piece that pretty much eschewed the notion that the Royals have been one of the worst teams in baseball at keeping their players off the disabled list. An unnamed scout bashing Tony Muser and Bob Boone for ruining Jose Rosado’s career is also a part of Dutton’s article, which will always bring a smile to my face. Boone and The Gunnery Sergeant just can’t be degraded enough, if you ask me.

Bradford Doolittle of Royalties & Cardinalate did an outstanding Royals season preview over at The Hardball Times, complete with detailed answers to five questions the Royals will have to answer in 2005.

You know, there are a lot of statistically-minded baseball fans out there who don’t think Zack Greinke’s going to be anything special. Royals fans know better, and the Star's Joe Posnanski detailed why. For any of the non-believers out there, Zack’s an anomaly, a young pitcher whose results are outweighed by how he achieves those results. If Jedi Mind Tricking opposing hitters into swinging at a curve in the dirt isn’t on his list of things to do this season, I’d be surprised.

The Runelvys Hernandez Clown Perm Watch has reached critical mass. Here’s to Elvys keeping that badass haircut for the rest of the season.

Not that the Royals need any more below-average defensive outfielders, but I’d love for them to trade Ken Harvey to the Devil Rays for Jonny Gomes. As John Barten of ‘Till You’re Blue in the Face wrote, Gomes is the ultimate Three True Outcomes hitter, meaning the length of his Major League career will depend on how well his employer tolerates record-setting strikeout totals. Unfortunately for Gomes, a man with the baseball intellect of a cheese sandwich is running the Devil Rays, so he probably isn’t going to get a chance to show off his power unless the Royals or some other saber-minded organization free him.

Hell, it probably wouldn’t even take a player as “good” as Harvey is to pry Gomes away from the cheese sandwich himself, Tampa Bay GM Chuck LaMar. Maybe Baird could sell them on the merits of Emil Brown’s outstanding spring training…

When the Royals announced they’d traded Carlos Beltran to the Houston Astros, I wasn’t exactly sure what to do. I was extremely sad that Beltran, an all-around good baseball player and an even better person, wouldn’t be patrolling center field for the Royals ever again. After all, he’d created so many good memories for Royals fans with his fence-climbing acrobatics, hustle, and game-winning home runs. I was also happy for Carlos who was heading to a better situation, and ultimately almost led the Astros to the World Series.

However, in between those emotions on opposite ends of the emotion spectrum, I was most anxious to find out which players the Royals had received in return for a half-season of Beltran’s services. The early reports had pinpointed Oakland Athletics third base prospect Mark Teahen and Houston Astros catching prospect John Buck as the two main targets of GM Allard Baird, with the only uncertainty being an unknown third prospect. At the time, it was believed that Baird coveted hard-throwing A’s reliever Jairo Garcia, but after the trade was made official, he’d accepted a lesser pitching prospect named Mike Wood. Assuming that the reports are true, Oakland GM Billy Beane wouldn’t cave to Baird’s demand as he did by including Angel Berroa in the Johnny Damon trade four years earlier, and Baird had to settle for the less-talented Wood instead to get the deal done.

Whereas Teahen and Buck immediately became fixtures towards The World of Tomorrow in Kansas City baseball, Wood was only thought to be a fifth starter, long reliever, or swingman, albeit a quality one who was ready for the Majors. The projection was reasonable; Wood never has thrown very hard, had questionable durability, and saw his strikeout rates fall dramatically after moving past Single-A competition. The Royals brought him to the Majors right away, and while he posted a rather-unimpressive 5.94 ERA in 100 innings of work, his peripheral statistics told a different story. In a neutral setting, Wood was rather unlucky in the number of hits he allowed, and Baseball Prospectus’ PERA expected him to post a 4.47 ERA.

In the early part of spring training 2005, Wood worked with pitching savant Guy Hansen, who helped him clean up his mechanics. Although I’m not a guy who puts very much stock in spring training statistics, Wood’s been on point in almost every outing so far this preseason, with his latest masterpiece being four perfect innings against the Rockies on Sunday. As if his 10 2/3 innings of 0.88 ERA ball isn’t impressive enough, he’s backed it up with a 12-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio and no home runs allowed. Hansen said that the natural movement on Wood’s pitches is the closest to Greg Maddux’s on the Royals staff. While that might be damning with faint praise, there’s no doubt that Wood’s pitched like Maddux so far.

Spring training performance typically doesn’t indicate the type of regular season a player’s going to have, but when a young starting pitcher busts out in the way Wood has, everyone should be taking cautious notice. Unfortunately, the Royals haven’t taken notice, and are only considering him for a job out of the bullpen thanks to how impressive Denny Bautista’s been. I’ve already chronicled my opinion as to why I think Bautista needs to go to Triple-A, and that opinion just garnered some extra ammunition with Wood’s dominance in camp. He’d be the perfect placeholder for Bautista in the Royals’ rotation, and should have an opportunity to stick anyway due to the ineffectiveness or injuries of his rotation mates.

There’s a serious upside here, far more of an upside than I ever thought Wood would have. I think it’d be fair to say that Wood’s already way ahead of the game. He already throws strikes, knows how to change speeds, has a history of keeping the ball on the ground and in the park, and even has a streamlined delivery to boot. It’s hard not to like a 25-year-old with that entire set of skills going for him. But if the Royals don’t like him enough to give him a chance as a starting pitcher now and in the future, FREE CALVIN PICKERING! might just turn into FREE MIKE WOOD!.

Miscellaneous baseball musings...

Speaking of the FCP! march, things aren’t exactly looking so swell for the big man these days. In 30 at-bats, he has only five hits (all singles including his phantom home run), and has been striking out like nobody’s business. Ken Harvey’s only been slightly better, hitting .200 with a .360 slugging percentage entering Sunday’s action. It’s wrong that the team’s probably viewing this as a competition, but Pickering really needed to have a big spring to prove to Pena and Baird that he deserved to be with the team, and he hasn’t done that. Make no mistake: the crusade’s continuing, and won’t stop until the Royals admit that Pickering is clearly Harvey’s superior as an offensive player.

The first trade of the new baseball season was also its first heist, as the Mets traded catcher Jason Phillips to the Dodgers for overrated lefthanded pitcher Kaz Ishii. Although Dodgers GM Paul DePodesta agreed to pick up a significant portion of Ishii’s contract, he’s still saving his team some money while jettisoning a pitcher likely to see his ERAs bloat well into the 5’s at any time. Ishii’s somehow maintained a reasonable ERA despite severe control problems, and the drop in his strikeout rate last season certainly isn’t a sign of better things to come. A lot of baserunners + relying on your defense to make too many plays = liability. In the meantime, the Dodgers now have an inexpensive and reasonably good starting catcher to hold down the fort until prospect Dioner Navarro’s ready to take Paul LoDuca’s old gig. If Phillips gets playing time, he’s going to have the career Todd Pratt was supposed to have had, which isn’t a bad thing in the least.

Both players are easily replaceable commodities, but replacing Ishii’s production is going to be a much easier task than finding a catcher with good on-base skills would’ve been. Score another for DePodesta, who’s doing what he knows is right in the face of wild scrutiny.

The writing’s on the wall for Kevin Appier, who met with Baird and Pena yesterday and was essentially told that his days with the Royals were numbered. In typical Baird fashion, he promised Ape that he’d do everything in his power to get him a job with another team, which is a classy move by a classy GM. However, I’d really prefer to see Appier retire. He’s already hung on too long, and judging by his Saturday postgame comments, Pena knows it:

“He threw the ball a lot better,” manager Tony Pena said. “He had a tight breaking ball. Look, you know he still has his heart, and he's still able to throw the ball across the plate.”

When all you “still” have is your heart and an ability to throw a baseball somewhere in the strike zone, it’s time to hang up the spikes.

You’ve just gotta love Congress these days. In my opinion, the common and recurring theme in their hearings on Thursday was that the steroid testing/punishment policy baseball’s instituted isn’t harsh enough, which is just downright stupid. To fulfill their agenda to smear good people like Mark McGwire, Sammy Sosa, and Rafael Palmeiro because they might’ve taken *GASP* STEROIDS!, they’re conveniently ignoring the facts. According to Baseball Prospectus’ Will Carroll, 83 players tested positive for steroids in 2003 – the first year of the program – and only 12 tested positive in 2004.

Sometimes, proof can be a bitch. Baseball needed to get itself cleaned up, and although they clearly took a big first step towards doing that, morons like Sen. John McCain and Rep. Tom Davis are getting involved in this anyway. To paraphrase Billy Beane, ESPN baseball analyst Joe Morgan often doesn’t like to allow facts get in the way of his opinions. Needless to say, the same holds true here.

By the way, I think we can safely assume that McCain spewed the Hypocrisy of the Week when he said that baseball couldn't be trusted. There's nothing quite like a Senator suggesting that somebody else's word isn't reliable.

Sorry for the dust that blew through this blog yesterday. I don't really have anything interesting to write on this Black Saturday in Lawrence, but after taking a look at the pictures of the 2005 Royals, I think Leo Nunez might be an ET:

By the time you read this, The Idiot Brigade’s witch hunt (read: Congress’s steroids hearing) will be close to starting or already underway, so here’s another un-juiced entry of random baseball thoughts, with some non-baseball stuff mixed in for good measure. These spring training notes articles are quickly becoming a favorite of mine:

Royals fans have to be relieved today in the aftermath of Zack Greinke Strikes Back, as FreakChild pitched like that speed-changin’ mother we watched with such great joy a year ago. 3 2/3 innings, one hit, no walks, and most impressively, three strikeouts. Greinke reportedly implemented at least one of the delivery changes pitching coach Guy Hansen asked him to make after his four-walk disaster against Oakland. For all you fantasy baseball nuts out there, he’s back, and there’s nothing to be afraid of.

Another guy who Hansen worked with – Mike Wood – is having a great spring so far. In 6 2/3 innings, Wood’s struck out eight batters against only one walk, and is my choice for the 5th starter coming out of camp. His PERA (Peripheral Earned Run Average) last season was 4.47, about a run-and-a-half lower than his actual ERA of 5.94. Denny Bautista will probably unseat him at some point this season, but guys like Wood who throw strikes, keep the ball down, and chew up innings will always have value to a contending team’s pitching staff.

Then there’s Chris George, who doesn’t throw strikes, doesn’t keep the ball down, and will never have value to a contending ballclub. I know, I know. He’s going to keep getting chances because he throws with his left hand, but Chris George, Major League Pitcher just isn’t going to happen. He probably wouldn’t make it through waivers if the Royals do the sensible thing and try to send him back to Omaha, but making him someone else’s problem wouldn’t be any sort of a loss. Chris hasn’t displayed solid peripheral statistics since the Clinton regime.

Ever wonder how once-proud organizations become the laughingstocks of baseball? One way is to trade a legitimate pitching prospect for a 40-year-old catcher like Benito Santiago, an unforgivable sin, especially for a team that isn’t in the “success” part of their success cycle. As Pirates GM Dave Littlefield noted in this MLB.com fluff article, the Buccos are “comfortable that [Santiago’s] going to help us.” Benny’s going to help them, alright. Their rousing quest for 80 wins wouldn’t have quite been the same without Santiago’s “veteran presence.” Somewhere, Allard Baird's chuckling.

I think speed, defense, and “doing the little things” are all undervalued commodities in the baseball market nowadays, but ridiculous articles like this one really peeve me because of their sheer ignorance. The Chicago White Sox are usually at the forefront of discussions centering around the “power v. speed” debates, and this story provided no exception:

The White Sox hit 242 homers last season, the most in club history, but they won only 83 games and finished second in the American League Central, nine games behind Minnesota. Out the door went the heavy-hitting Lee and Magglio Ordonez. In the door came new baserunning coach Tim Raines, who as a member of the Montreal Expos, led the NL in 1983 with 90 steals, the most in a single season of his career.

[Chicago manager Ozzie] Guillen noted that there were moments when the 2004 White Sox "could score 14, 15 runs a game" and then spend "two, three days without even moving a guy over."

You’ve gotta love that logic. Guillen readily admits that the 2004 team “could score 14, 15 runs a game,” yet views that as a negative since the team only won 83 games. If the Sox think trading run-producing guys like Carlos Lee for guys like Scott Podsednik is going to help them win more games since the latter does a better job at giving away outs, they’re delusional. The name of the game is scoring more runs than your opponent, and whether Guillen wants to admit it or not, doing that becomes more difficult with every single out your team make on offense. But hey, while the White Sox are clearly on their way to the American League Central basement, at least Guillen’s proud that his team’s being constructed in his image:

"If I build the team the way I played, we're never going to win," Guillen told the Arizona Republic, his tongue stuffed firmly in cheek.

Ironically, he’d be right if he wasn’t being sarcastic. In case you’re wondering about “the way [he] played,” Guillen’s career OPS was a downright-awful .626, especially when you consider that the league average OPS during that time was .744.

One of my biggest problems with people throwing steroid accusations around left and right is that we just don’t have enough information to make any kind of a judgment yet. We don’t know what exactly they do to the human body and, more importantly, how exactly that relates to a baseball player’s success on the field. Fortunately, guys like Will Carroll are around to educate us on the subject. (Premium Content)

If Dusty Baker hasn’t taken up residence in some sort of a bomb shelter yet, he needs to. Cubs fans aren’t too happy about what’s happened to Mark Prior, and I can’t say I blame them. Even if Prior's career hasn't been permanently damaged, this should serve as a lesson about protecting young pitchers to the 29 other teams. Even if a guy has good mechanics, it's better to err on the side of caution while he's still developing physically.

Carrie Underwood survived another week on American Idol, which means I get at least one more chance to nearly pass out when they put her gorgeous face on TV again next Tuesday.

or

With the announcement that Chris Truby probably isn't going to start the season with the Royals, the team's prepared to give Mark Teahen the third base job right out of spring training. As I see it, their other options include making a trade for another stopgap third baseman (which I view as totally unnecessary), or allowing Tony Graffanino, Chris Clapinski, or Denny Hocking regular playing time at the hot corner while Teahen, in the name of service time, finishes developing in Omaha.

What would you do?

Since I sorta' slacked off in yesterday's entry, today's covers a lot of stuff, at least by my standards. Let's get started, shall we?

In what was their darkest hour, the 2004 Kansas City Royals achieved an unenviable trifecta of finishing dead last in the American League in ERA, last in OPS, and next-to-last in fielding percentage (one point ahead of Detroit). As you might expect, a team that’s the worst in the league in hitting, pitching, and catching the baseball isn’t going to have a season to remember … at least not for the right reasons. Basically, the only bright spots were Zack Greinke (who’s currently scaring the Royals to death in Surprise), the moderate emergence of John Buck, and the nifty acquisitions of Justin Huber, Denny Bautista, and Jaime Cerda for nothing more than three very ordinary players.

Incidentally, Cerda became part of what was another bright spot – the bullpen – even if “bright” is defined as a dim flashlight in a dark room. The team’s 4.54 ERA placed them 11th in a 14-team American League which is certainly nothing to brag about, but they were closer to finishing in sixth place than “catching” the Toronto Blue Jays in the cellar. Much of their success can be attributed to The Ongoing Education of Allard Baird, as the Kansas City front office finally grasped the concept that good relief pitchers can be found on the minor league free agent market and stolen from other teams if you look in the right places. Below is a table of the “free talent” relief pitchers the Royals rescued from baseball purgatory last season with their 2004 statistics:

PITCHER	IP	ERA	HOW ACQUIRED
Jaime Cerda	45.2	3.15	Trade with NYM for Shawn Sedlacek
Nate Field	44.1	4.26	Minor-league free agent
Shawn Camp	66.2	3.97	Minor-league free agent
Rudy Seanez	23.0	3.91	Minor-league free agent
Dennys Reyes	108.0	4.75	Minor-league free agent
DJ Carrasco	35.1	4.84	Rule 5 draftee

None of those guys will ever be confused with Eric Gagne (or even a guy like Steve Kline) but for little to no expenditure in financial or player resources, the Royals got 323 innings of 4.23 ERA ball out of those six pitchers. That isn’t necessarily good production from a bullpen, but there are more than a few middling relief pitchers out there making more than a million bucks to have a 4.50 ERA.

The bullpen picture for 2005 is still pretty muddy, although Cerda, Field, and Camp are all probably going to be back in the picture this season. Injuries certainly haven’t helped any, as pitchers who’d be shoe-ins in Jeremy Affeldt and Scott Sullivan have gone down with groin and back problems, respectively. Affeldt’s injury isn’t thought to be serious, (which, in Royals speak means he’ll be out for the season) but Sullivan’s status is more of an unknown. However, the Royals have a glut of decent relievers just begging for a chance to pitch, along with the guys who fail to make the starting rotation. One of my personal favorites, Indy-league refugee Byron Embry, was optioned to minor-league camp on Monday, but Baird indicated that he has a very good chance of being with the big club at some point this season.

Although I don’t like the idea of a 12-man pitching staff, I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised to see the Royals break camp with Affeldt, Sullivan, Cerda, Field, Camp, Mike Wood, and Rule 5 pick Andy Sisco in the ‘pen to start the season. If that group were to stay together for an entire season, there’s reason to believe they could at least perform at a league-average rate. With the exception of the unknown quantity in Sisco, the rest of those guys do a darned good job of keeping the ball in the ballpark with a decent strikeout rate. That’s a formula for success, and with pitching coach Guy Hansen’s help, the relief corp should be a strength for the Royals this season.

Big Calvin Pickering isn't helping my cause any. Despite the fact that the Royals should ignore his .174 batting average (which is identical to his slugging percentage) in camp, they won't, and he's probably headed to Omaha if he doesn't start hitting. But I'm not giving up the fight until the Royals see the light and let him start terrorizing American League pitchers with his beer league softball skills. Keep the faith.

The shape of the infield is going to hinge greatly on the performances of second baseman Ruben Gotay and third baseman Chris Truby. Coming into yesterday’s action, Gotay has jacked four homers and three doubles in his 25 spring at-bats to go along with a .480 batting average, and is making it difficult for the Royals to ship him back to Omaha like they’d intended. Truby’s gotten a grand total of three at-bats due to a sore left wrist that’s kept him out of action.

The interesting thing is that if Truby isn’t ready to assume his seat-warming duties for Mark Teahen on Opening Day AND Gotay makes the team as the starting second baseman, it’s entirely possible that second base incumbent Tony Graffanino will become the stopgap third baseman, Truby will be left behind in rehab, while Chris Clapinski would still be the utility man.

Royals fans all across the midwest, including yours truly, are scared to death of Greinke’s inexplicable struggles so far this spring, although Hansen believes that his control problems can be attributed to starting five inches too far to the right on the pitching rubber. Whether that will fix what ails him remains to be seen, but Studes at The Hardball Times has data that suggests Greinke might be due for a massive regression this season due to the difference in his BABIP (Batting Average on Balls In Play) and his LD% (Line Drive Percentage). This definitely isn’t a conclusive study since it only covers the 2004 season, but it gives us another reason to worry internally while being confident about his prospects on the outside. It’d be nice if the Baseball Gods would stop screwing with us KC fans just ONCE.

Speaking of the Baseball Gods, I think they’re trying to signal this as the end of the road for Kevin Appier, who’s been drilled on the shoulder by a line drive, has allowed eight earned runs in 5 2/3 innings of work, and is only topping out in the low-80s on his fastball. It’s time, Ape. Take the hint.

A lot's been made of Angel Berroa's poor plate discipline (and with good reason), but this picture shows his biggest problem when it comes to actually making solid contact with a baseball. Keep that front side closed, Angel.

Music to write by: Michael Buble, It's Time

In the absence of an article (at least for the present time), here are a few links to weekend stuff I found to be interesting:

Friend of KRB Dave Haller has written the Milwaukee Brewers' Team Health Report over at baseballprospectus.com, and did a darned good job if you ask me. You can read it if you have a Premium subscription over at BP.com. If you can't read it, why haven't you signed up yet?

Here's a heartwarming story about Detroit Tigers outfielder Alex Sanchez.

Not that anyone but myself and fellow Kickapoo High School alums care about this, but the KHS girls' basketball team won their third state championship in five seasons over the weekend. By the way, head coach Stephanie Phillips has won two of those titles, and has an insane 106-7 record during her tenure.

A few weeks ago, I wrote a short commentary on the way teams use spring training to evaluate players who are competing for jobs. I probably went a little bit overboard in my opinion, saying, “teams need to have their minds made up about their rosters before the games start.” I’m partially retracting that statement because even after taking everything into account, trying to understand what a player’s spring training performance means is a fool’s errand at best. Putting too much stock into how well a player competed in camp to earn a job can lead to making a poor decision, because even bad players have good month-long stretches. Conversely, putting too little emphasis on it because of a pre-conceived notion about a player can start anybody down Billy McMillon’s career path. While Michael Wolverton proved that won-loss records in spring training don’t have any relation to won-loss records in the regular season, I’ve yet to find a study that discusses what individual performance means. For the time being, we’ll just have to take it on a case-by-case basis.

All of which leads us to the no-less-than-eight-man battle going on in Surprise, Ari. for the right to be the Royals’ fifth starter straight out of the chute. There’s the veteran – Kevin Appier – who’s so old, he pitched on a staff with Charlie Leibrandt. There’s Ryan Jensen, the other veteran playing the role of Tyler Green, and he’s probably ticketed for Omaha no matter what he does. Stranger things have happened, but I can’t envision any way Jensen would even make this sad excuse for a pitching staff (barring an injury, of course). After that, we get to the six kids who’re vying for the slot, including but not limited to Mike Wood, Dennis Tankersley, Chris George, Jimmy Gobble, Kyle Snyder, and Denny Bautista. While four of the first five guys on that list all have the abilities to be valuable pitchers to varying degrees (George, in my opinion, doesn’t) and will likely see Kansas City at some point this season, it’s Bautista who’s considered to be the leader in the clubhouse. Tony Pena even went as far as saying there’s “no way” he couldn’t put Bautista in the rotation if he keeps throwing lights-out ball.

To an extent, I can see where Pena’s coming from, because there are a ton of things to like about what he did over the winter and the carry-over it’s had to the first week of games. In five innings, Bautista – who added 20 pounds to his frame since October – has allowed less than a baserunner per inning and has already racked up eight strikeouts. Say all you want about sample size, but apparently he’s throwing harder than he ever has before. That’s saying something; prior to 2005, Bautista already threw consistently in the mid-90s with a killer hard-breaking curveball. There’s a great deal of upside with intimidating pitchers like him, and the Royals might want to use what’s sure to be a lost season to shorten his learning curve in the major leagues.

However, trying to shorten a learning curve too often short-circuits a pitcher’s career if he isn’t ready to handle the jump, as the Royals can attest. They can point to any number of reasons for why they’ve been looking to the future in every season since 1995, but none stands out more prominently than their total incompetence when it’s come to developing a live arm into a good pitcher. Bad coaching is as much to blame for the failed potentials of Mike MacDougal and Jeremy Affeldt among others, but also to blame is the Royals pushing their pitchers through the pipeline too fast. Allowing a pitcher to master a level before being forced to pitch against even better hitters is something I view as a necessity even if the majority of Major League teams don’t.

You’re probably asking, “What does ‘master a level’ mean, Kevin?” Well, for me, a pitcher needs to not only display a solid primary performance in his ERA and WHIP, but also support those numbers with good peripheral statistics like K’s and BB’s per nine innings pitched and strikeout-to-walk ratio. As it applies to that pair of Royals pitchers I mentioned above, MacDougal consistently walked more batters than he struck out during his apprenticeship, and Affeldt was allowed to skip Triple-A altogether after everybody saw his legendary strikeout of Jim Thome three years ago this month. My belief is that the careers of both guys’ careers were hurt because of being pushed to the next stop before they even got their feet underneath them at their original level. Dealing with pitching coaches not named Guy Hansen certainly didn’t help either, but the fact remains.

Discounting Bautista’s horrendous 8.49 ERA during his month-long stint in Kansas City a year ago, it’s easy to see why the Royals were thrilled (and probably making sure they weren’t being Punk’d) when the Orioles agreed to surrender him for Ordinary Relief Pitcher Jason Grimsley. Looking at his career performance, level by level:

LVL	IP	ERA	K/9	BB/9	HR/9
R	63.0	2.42	8.29	2.43	0.14
A	255.0	3.83	7.48	3.42	0.35
AA	197.0	3.55	9.41	4.56	0.59

There isn’t much of anything not to like in that career to date. He’s been allowed to complete each level before moving on to the next, and you have to really nitpick to find negatives in his line. His walk rate has doubled since his debut, but he showed massive improvement in his strike-throwing ability last after he came over to Kansas City, hatcheting more than one walk per nine innings while pitching for Wichita. You could also argue that his home run rate’s gone up drastically, but considering where he started, there’s just no way to continue allowing so few bombs at higher levels of the minor leagues. He has the ability to form half of a dominant 1-2 punch with Zack Greinke at the top of the Royals’ rotation for years to come, especially with Hansen there to help him at the highest level.

However, missing from that stellar box o’ numbers are the letters “AAA,” which means that he hasn’t finished his progression yet. Denny’s far from a finished product. His control still needs a lot of work, as does his stamina, mechanics, and mindset. Additionally, putting off service time clocks starting is absolutely necessary for small-market clubs, and I don't think Bautista’s started with his September callup a season ago.

He’ll be pitching for the Royals soon enough, but once he’s here, he needs to be ready to pitch effectively every start. Being on a shuttle between Rosenblatt and Kauffman Stadiums isn’t going to help him any. I really hate to include Bautista in a blanket statement, but too many promising careers have gone awry in Kansas City because of an accelerated developmental program, and a talent like his has no business being ruined. Call it my desire to rather be safe than sorry. The Royals are covered from head-to-toe in guys who can capably pitch at the bottom of a rotation right now, but Bautista shouldn’t be one of them. When he’s a Royal, he should be in the Majors because his track record proved his worth, not because he was effective against a group of backups in spring training. The ability is there, and it's up to the Royals to not ruin it.

Since I received a couple of e-mails and a comment yesterday on the subject of the Royals possibly picking up Rick Ankiel, let’s talk about that for a moment.

For those of you who haven’t heard the news, here’s a little background: Cardinals pitcher Rick Ankiel is now Cardinals outfielder Rick Ankiel, as he decided to scrap the whole pitching thing and try to carve out a career as a hitter. The decision was apparently all his, whose total inability to throw a baseball anywhere near home plate became too much of a distraction and burden for him to bear. Although he seemed to have solved his control problems with a ten-inning, one-walk performance in five relief appearances at the end of 2004, Ankiel’s pitching career will likely be remembered as the Second Coming of Steve Blass.

By every account I’ve read in past scouting reports, backs of baseball cards, and quotes from people with the Cardinals organization, the belief has always been that Ankiel’s fine athletic ability would allow him to become an outfielder if he ever chose that path. However, the original idea was for him to be the Cardinals’ version of Brooks Kieschnick, a relief pitcher/pinch-hitter who would essentially allow the team an additional player on the bench or in the bullpen because of that extreme versatility. Such a strategy probably would’ve worked wonders for Ankiel, who, like division rival pitchers Mark Prior and Kerry Wood, can really swing it for a pitcher. In 134 minor league at-bats, Ankiel has a .908 OPS, and has hit a respectable .207/.258/.310 with two home runs in his 87 at-bat major league career. That was while pitching, and one could make a reasonable argument that he’d be much, much better than that focusing on offense only.

However, with the crowded outfield situation the Cardinals are facing, it’s highly unlikely that they’d carry him on the 25-man roster over John Mabry, So Taguchi, and/or Roger Cedeno. That means a trip to the minor leagues (and perhaps Hammons Field) would be in order, but because he’s out of minor league options, the Cards would have to sneak him through waivers to option him down. That’s where the question of what the Royals should do if he becomes available comes into play.

I’m operating under the assumption that no amount of convincing and miracle working from Guy Hansen could possibly get him to try pitching one more time. As it stands now, the Royals have David DeJesus inked in at centerfield, with Eli Marrero, Terrence Long, Abraham Nunez, and Aaron Guiel competing for playing time at the corners. Matt Stairs will also see some time in the outfield this year, but he’ll mostly be a part of the logjam at first base and designated hitter. Everyone except Guiel is on the 40-man roster. Since Marrero and Long are on guaranteed contracts and are guaranteed roster spots barring a trade, the question becomes whether or not Ankiel is a better player than Guiel or Nunez.

I really hate to be blunt, but I think the answer’s a resounding “no” if the Royals wouldn't be able to ship him to Omaha or Wichita. There’s just no reason for the Royals, already using one roster spot on Rule 5 draftee Andy Sisco, to waste another to carry a second guy learning on the job. Additionally, I don’t think there’s any reason to believe that Ankiel, for all his physical gifts, profiles as anything more than a fourth outfielder – exactly what Guiel and Nunez are. With that said, I’m declaring this an “open thread” for you all to share your opinions on this subject. Should the Royals, if given the opportunity, take a gigantic chance on this guy?

From the “Don’t They Have Anything Better To Do?” department: Congress has subpoenaed seven current and former baseball players to testify before a panel about ‘roids, which is pretty much the latest ridiculous development in what I’m officially dubbing “The Great Witch Hunt of the 2000’s.”

I’m on record as saying that I really don’t care if athletes take steroids. While I agree with the masses that it’s a hazardous spiral that needs to be stopped, it’s baseball’s problem to deal with, and everyone else – Congress especially – would be doing everybody a favor if they’d butt out. Most of you know that I think this notion of placing asterisks next to or completely removing home run records set by suspected juicers is ridiculous; we just don’t know who did and who didn’t yet. And even if Barry Bonds and Mark McGwire were proven to have used performance-enhancing substances, how could we possibly know which particular home runs wouldn’t have left the park in their record-setting seasons?

Anyway, upon hearing of Capitol Hill’s great interest in this case, I couldn’t help but be reminded of the court scene in The Majestic – one of the most underrated movies of the last ten years – in which Peter Appleton (Jim Carrey) is forced to purge himself of his “Communist ties” before a government panel, a room of reporters, and the rest of the free world watching on television. The problem, however, is that Appleton wasn’t actually a Communist; he just unknowingly attended a Communist meeting in college to impress a girl. The government found a way to blacklist him from his Hollywood writing career, therefore forcing his hand in admitting to something that wasn’t actually true. When Appleton told the panel that what they were doing was wrong and that he wasn’t what they said he was, he was damn near thrown in jail for telling the truth.

I think there’s a comparison to be made here, because the attitudes in Carrey’s movie that was based on The Red Scare and the attitudes being displayed by Congress, the media, and baseball fans in the present are almost exactly the same. Just as the psychos during the 1950s convicted almost everybody of something only a few people were a part of, there’s a modern day desire to believe that if Bonds used, then most everyone else used. In other words, the thinking is that there’s just no way a person can hit a ton of home runs because of technique and hard work in the weight room. Certain people just won't even hear that possibility because they already have their minds made up: everybody's under suspicion even without any valid data suggesting such a thing, so when Bonds, the poster boy of this hunt, even suggests that the controversy is overblown, he's ridiculed. He’s telling the media what they don’t want to hear, refusing to give them the "correct" answer, so he’s being demonized for it. I think it’s sad that this is the opinion of most everybody out there. As Joe Sheehan wrote in a Premium article on BaseballProspectus.com, the rationale baseball fans are using to throw their heroes (but mostly Bonds) under the bus is “Well, he's a jerk, and he got bigger, and he hit a bunch of home runs, so he did it.” That isn’t good enough for Mr. Sheehan, and it certainly isn’t good enough for me.

So while it’s important to keep discussing this issue until it’s resolved, I think it needs to be kept on the backburner. Steroid use isn’t nearly as big a deal as it’s being made out to be by the media and now Washington D.C., and it would help greatly if we as a society would just let it rest, and play ball. It doesn’t affect the lives of anybody but Major Leaguers, it doesn’t affect the health of anybody but Major Leaguers, and the geezers running this country straight into the ground have bigger fish to fry. Folks, either accept the answers players are willing to give you, or stop listening. This problem isn’t going to go away by sweeping it under the rug, but it’s only getting worse with our McCarthyesque attitudes.

Other stuff…

One of my favorite things to do every day is checking my site statistics, which allows me to see how many people have visited my page, how they got here, and how much time they spent here after arriving. Yesterday, I noticed that somebody got to KRB from a USATODAY.com link, which is very, very exciting because it’s such a big, national publication. Turns out that I was linked on a feature called “March Blogness,” which is a blog maintained by USA TODAY staff members who scour the web, looking for interesting articles from sports bloggers such as myself.

After frantically scrolling up and down the page, trying to find where “Kevin’s Royals Blog” was printed, I finally came upon this vindicating boldfaced type about halfway down the page:

Calculating risk, Calvin Pickering edition

As if it wasn’t enough that my page is continuing to gain notoriety by being noticed by staff members at USA freaking TODAY, the fact that my campaign to FREE CALVIN PICKERING! is gathering steam as we head into the middle part of spring training is particularly exciting. It’s going to happen, guys. Keep the faith, spread the word, and we’ll get Picko in the lineup on Opening Day.

It was a good first outing for Runelvys Hernandez, as he allowed just one run and four hits in three innings of work. He also struck out two batters, walked nobody, and generally had a pretty uneventful day. No news is good news with Hernandez, who apparently had no problems with his surgically repaired elbow. He did, however, bust out a cool new clown perm. Bartolo Colon would be proud.

The Royals shipped six players to their minor league camp yesterday, one of them being righthanded pitcher Jonah Bayliss. Bayliss isn’t a prospect, but it’s interesting that he went to high school at Phillips Academy in Andover, Mass. Apparently the kid’s pretty smart; Phillips is an Ivy League pipeline that produced the following individuals:

George H.W. Bush
George W. Bush
Jeb Bush
John F. Kennedy, Jr.
Humphrey Bogart
Peter Sellars
Bill Belechick
Bill Veeck

The list of famous people goes on and on. Suddenly, I don’t feel so cool for graduating from Brad Pitt’s high school.

I posted a short little article on Royals Court on Sunday, but nobody could read it because of some pretty serious server problems the good folks at MVN were having over the weekend. I’ll have more original material up on the weekends, and anything I post during the week will be a reprint of something Royals-related you read here, only with, perhaps, a few edits here and there.

The Chiefs were able to sign linebacker Kendrell Bell to a seven-year contract on Tuesday, but lost out on cornerbacks Fred Smoot (who signed with the Vikings) and Samari Rolle (who chose the Ravens). Earlier, linebacker Jeremiah Trotter spurned their offer to take less money with the Eagles. As it stands now, the Chiefs still need a starting cornerback, and because they’ve resisted Miami’s trade ransom for Patrick Surtain, making an impressive sales pitch to Ty Law becomes that much more important.

I’m no football expert (does anyone out there understand how the salary cap works?), but it seems that the Chiefs have 2005 to have a successful run in the playoffs before this particular group of players is blown up. That means making massive improvements on the defensive side of the ball, and I’m not confident that Bell’s good enough to make a dynamite difference in the linebacking corp. Chime in with some opinions on the signing if you want. This Chiefs fan would like to hear ‘em.

By every story I’ve read so far, new Royals pitching Guy Hansen’s been making a monumental impact on Royals pitchers in spring training, fixing deliveries, mindsets, arm slots, and attitudes, all in the hope of making the Kansas City staff one of the American League’s best in 2005. I don’t want to dampen everyone’s spirits, but there are far too many similarities between this situation and the one Gunther Cunningham inherited prior to the Chiefs’ season. Even great coaches can’t take terrible football/baseball/basketball players and turn them into productive pieces of a winning team.

I’d feel bad for forcing upon you guys and gals another article about the ongoing battle royale between resident fatties Ken Harvey and Calvin Pickering, but the FREE CALVIN PICKERING! march must go on until everyone’s on board with it. Impossible? Perhaps, but I won’t rest until Harvey’s back home in Nebraska playing some Triple-A baseball (or in Tampa Bay – also Triple-A baseball) and Pickering’s suited up in the blue and white at Kauffman Stadium on an everyday basis.

The latest person who needs to join up with the inevitable is Royals beat writer Dick Kaegel. I’ve read in the past that Kaegel is nothing more than an old-fashioned, stubborn baseball writer who believes in old-school baseball theories – and only old-school baseball theories – but it took me seeing his writing for myself to really believe that. How does this relate to my FCP! cause? Judging from several of his articles and “mailbag” answers on the Royals’ official site this winter, it’s painfully clear that 1) Kaegel likes Ken Harvey way too much and 2) He isn’t really interested in Pickering even getting an opportunity to prove himself this spring. Check it out:

December 5 Mailbag:

Pickering can crush the ball, as his seven home runs in 35 games for the Royals and his 35 homers in 89 games for Triple-A Omaha attest. However, the Royals view him primarily as a designated hitter and not a first baseman. They already have Mike Sweeney and Ken Harvey for those spots, so look for Pickering to be at Omaha as a fallback in case either one of those players is injured again.

Although I disagree with what Kaegel says the Royals view him as, that’s a fair assessment, newsy as it may be.

December 15 Mailbag:

[ . . . ] Pickering, 28, has become something of a journeyman, getting previous chances with the Orioles, Reds and Red Sox. The big guy (6-5 and 260-plus) has always hit a lot of home runs in the minors. He had 35 this year for Triple-A Omaha and then seven more for the Royals. However, Pickering has not yet proven he can hit Major League pitching on a consistent basis. For example, in his last
nine games for the Royals, he was 4-for-29 (.138), although two of the hits were homers. He also strikes out a lot -- 42 times in 112 at-bats for KC. Pickering has Mike Sweeney and Ken Harvey ahead of him as first basemen-designated hitters, although he could get some playing time as a left-handed DH.

This is the point where I began to question Kaegel’s sanity/ability to use common sense. Starting with his first point of interest, it’s a true statement that Pickering, like every other player with 237 career at-bats, hasn’t proven himself capable of hitting “Major League pitching on a consistent basis.” However, using that 4-29 stretch over his last nine games of the season doesn’t really work. Baseball seasons are comprised of streaks, both good and bad for every single player. Slumps and hot streaks are just unavoidable, and a 29 at-bat stretch in late October doesn’t conclusively prove that Pickering can’t hit Major League pitching consistently.

I think it’s also important to note that just because a player hasn’t had a chance to prove himself doesn’t mean that he can’t be an asset to a baseball team. To date, Pickering’s been a member of the Orioles, Reds, and Dan Duquette-era Red Sox, or three organizations not known for their good decisions. Not every general manager is a Billy Beane, who would most definitely recognize and use Pickering’s abilities until he became too expensive. Calvin does strike out a lot, whiffing in 32 percent of his Major League at-bats, but the next time somebody proves that a strikeout is significantly worse than a groundout, flyout, or popout will be the first time. Additionally, Harvey isn’t exactly the face of contact hitting either; he’s struck out in 20 percent of his at-bats.

And how well did Harvey do over his last nine games? Try 7-35 (.200), only with NO home runs, two walks, and one extra-base hit (a double).

February 7 Mailbag:

Looking at it logically, Harvey is less likely than Sweeney to be traded because he fits in with the youth movement. At this point, Pickering wouldn't have much trade value because he has yet to prove himself in the Majors. It's doubtful that any of them will be released.

Again, although Pickering and Harvey are roughly a year apart in age, Harvey “fits in with the youth movement” while Pickering “has yet to prove himself in the Majors.”

Then there was the latest icing on the cake:

March 7 Mailbag:

[ . . . ] Pickering, 28, has appeared in just 88 Major League games with 13 home runs and 42 RBIs. He showed big power last year for Omaha with 35 homers there and seven more for the Royals. He has a good eye at the plate, but strikes out a lot. His defense at first base is limited. General manager Allard Baird says Pickering will compete with Ken Harvey as the first base-designated hitter companion to Mike Sweeney. Yet it's hard to believe the Royals would give up on Harvey, who was one of the American League's top hitters in the first half of 2004 and made the All-Star team.

Once again, Kaegel’s playing the strikeout card like that alone totally negates Pickering’s abilities to get on base and hit the ball out of the ballpark, and if his defense at first base is limited, then Harvey’s is only slightly limited. There isn’t enough of a difference there to justify putting Harvey’s league-average stick in the lineup over Pickering’s above-league-average stick.

I’m assuming that by calling Harvey “one of the American League’s top hitters in the first half of 2004,” Kaegel’s referring to only his first half batting average, which sat at a healthy .305. However, we know there’s always more to the story than just batting average, and Harvey’s OPS at the break was a less-than-top-notch .805. That he made the All-Star team was a technicality, and only a technicality because of the rule that every team has to be represented at the Midsummer Classic. Basically, he didn’t deserve to be there.

Spread the word. Calvin Pickering is practically begging to be freed, but it won’t happen without your help.

Other Royals thoughts...

I really don’t want to stay on a somewhat-negative note, but there are other players in the Royals’ camp who I’m actually rooting against, in hopes that they’ll be so bad, the Royals won’t be tempted to break camp with them on the roster. One of those pitchers is righthanded pitcher Ryan Jensen, who signed a minor league deal with the team this winter. I was okay with the signing at the time because I thought somebody has to start games at Omaha, and a veteran guy like Jensen is almost perfect for the job. However, I did NOT think he’d have any chance of winning a job, but his chances of being the fifth starter or a member of the bullpen are apparently all too real.

This goes back to something I slightly alluded to in yesterday’s entry that discussed Zack Greinke’s struggles. The way teams use spring training – as an open competition to see who “wants it more” when it comes to winning a job – is absolutely ridiculous and counterproductive. Using the race for the fifth starter as an example, it doesn’t matter if Jensen pitches better than Mike Wood or Jimmy Gobble. He’s still the inferior pitcher to both of those guys and should lose the tiebreaker, so to speak. That’d hold true, especially, if Gobble can re-discover the four or five mph he lost off his fastball and get his strikeout rate back up to 5.5 K’s per 9 innings pitched.

Baseball players are who they are. Some players are just better than others, and a sample size of at-bats in spring training doesn’t change that fact. Many roster mistakes are going to be made this spring because of the stock teams put into spring training performance.

Having said that, if Tony Graffanino doesn’t get healthy in a big hurry, he’s probably going to lose his starting job to Ruben Gotay. The kid’s having a heck of a spring so far, and if he keeps hitting, I wouldn’t be surprised if the team broke up their dream infield at Omaha, took Gotay north with them, and sent Chris Clapinski to Triple-A with Graffanino being the utility man.

I originally had a picture of Andy Sisco here alongside a comment about how he's really tall, but this one is infinitely better:



I really wish I could tell you that picture was altered somehow, but it wasn't Photoshopped or edited in any way. It's a real photo of Phil Mickelson's reaction to a crucial missed putt on Sunday. I think I'll just let the picture speak for itself, because nothing I could possibly say would make THAT any funnier than it already is.

If you’re reading this, you’re probably a Royals fan, which means you’re at least a little bit concerned about Donald Zackary Greinke today. However, if you aren’t a Royals fan, let this entry serve as a lesson for just how important Greinke having success is to the Royals’ future and, more importantly, to Royals fans not being sent to the nuthouse.

After hearing of the shellacking he took yesterday against the Brewers – who hit him around to the tune of seven hits (two of which were home runs) and seven runs in two innings of work – even I’m a little curious to see if he’ll recover. I’m even on record as saying that spring training games don’t matter, but when it comes to Greinke, every game is significant. How much does it matter? So much that I’ll look for any reason to convince myself that yesterday won’t be the norm for the rest of his career. This game yesterday wasn’t quite the beating of his life since he allowed eight runs in two innings against the Orioles last year. Additionally, Royals Killer Extraordinaire Carlos Lee hit the two homers, Zack was probably somewhat unlucky because he struck out three guys and walked only one, and he was only allowed to throw his fastball and changeup.

But all the excuses in the world don’t change the fact that he got his butt kicked, and with the track record the Royals have of destroying young pitchers before they even get their feet off the ground in the majors, Royals fans are understandably becoming Chicken Littles all across the web. Yes, Zack Greinke has proven that he just might be human, and as a result, Royals Nation is terrified of what the future holds. Check out the thoughts from one of my favorite KC message boards:

After this poor performance today, they may reconsider who's catching Zack. If Zack doesn't improve substantially before the season starts, he may be starting in AAA.

Zack has the most potential, but he is still young and goofs around too much. The way he has pitched the last couple of times, just about any of them could prove to be better if he doesn't get his act together.

The young man has probably spent all winter reading his press clippings. Hopefully he will come around before April, if not why not send him down and get his attention. Some of you seem to forget these are very young men and many have been treated with kid gloves all their lives. Part of the job of the manager should be to welcome them to the real world.

And then there’s this beauty, which pretty much sums all of that up in a few words:

No kidding. If Zack struggles, there'll be nothing to live for.

This is how bad things have gotten in Kansas City during the past decade, especially with the young pitching. Greinke’s the only young pitcher the Royals have developed into something even moderately useful during that time, so if Zack – one of the most special pitchers in baseball – goes the way of The Pittsley, that’s it for us. It’ll be all over, because the Royals would surely then be doomed to eternal failure. Preposterous? Maybe not. The Baseball Gods aren’t known for kidding around.

However, there is a light at the end of the tunnel in regards to Greinke recovering, and that light (thankfully) doesn’t belong to a freight train. The bottom line is that he’s proven to everybody how good he is with his Rookie-of-the-Year-caliber season a year ago, and pitchers with Zack’s talent don’t just collapse. Heck, Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA player forecasting system gave him a Collapse Rate of zero percent.

Think of it this way: If you own a Mazda RX8 and have a fender-bender that leaves a dent under a headlight, your car is still a Mazda RX8. Similarly, a very, very, good pitcher like Greinke who suffers through one disastrous start is still a very, very, good pitcher. The “dent” in his record doesn’t really mean much, especially in his first start of the season.

What I’m trying to say is that while the Royals need to be alert towards any sign of trouble they see with The Prodigy, they also need to remember who he is as a pitcher is one factor that absolutely will not change (barring a talent-robbing injury, of course). It’s important for us, as fans, to keep that in mind as well. Zack Greinke is going to be just fine.

MVC Tournament Musings

For the second year in a row, the SMS Bears ambushed top-seeded Southern Illinois in the Missouri Valley Conference tournament, winning 65-61. I missed the game, choosing instead to take advantage of the awesome 70-degree weather we’re having by playing some basketball and playing catch, so I can’t offer a first-hand account of who played major roles in the win. However, after trailing 42-26 at halftime, the Bears put the proverbial brakes on SIU’s offense, allowing only 19 points in the final 20 minutes. They did it in their usual way, outrebounding their opponent by a wide margin (31-21), and hitting 87 percent of their shots from the free throw line. Somehow, the Bears only committed 14 personal fouls as a team for the game, while SIU was whistled for 25. Suspicious? Yes. Unfair? Definitely. But I’ll take it.

The Bears are going to face the Creighton Blue Jays tonight in the finals, and will have the unenviable task of beating the same team three times in one season. If Tamarr! and Co. find a way to win, they’ll get the program back to the NCAA Tournament for the first time since Steve Alford’s final season as head coach back in 1999. If they lose, they’ll be lucky to get a NIT berth, and Barry Hinson will have to sweat out another summer of job uncertainty. I’m not Hinson fan, but I’m pulling for the former, even if they’d get a low seed and their rear ends handed to them by a top program in the first round.

By the way, don’t you think Wichita State forward Kyle Wilson looks an awful lot like Dallas Mavericks’ star Dirk Nowitzki?