The Fantastic Four
First and foremost, I’d like to thank you, my readers, for understanding about my non-post yesterday. For some reason, I was drawing far more frustration than inspiration when I was trying to write on Monday evening, and I hope that doesn’t happen again for a long time. I was starting to think yesterday afternoon that I'd have to take another day away from the blog due to a rough day, but eating dinner at our brand spankin’ new Ruby Tuesday’s and shooting the breeze with two friends has really put me into a much better mood. Meagan and Joseph, you guys rock. Thanks. Moving on…
With Ken Harvey or Calvin Pickering at first base, Tony Graffanino at second, Chris Truby at third, and Angel Berroa trying to reclaim his 2003 magic at shortstop, the Royals starting infield is one of the few settled areas of concern heading into spring training. As reader David Sanford pointed out, the irony here is that Triple-A Omaha probably has a better infield, at least on a raw talent basis. It wasn’t something I’d really thought about before, but he’s very right, especially if the Royals (stupidly) use Pickering’s last option and send him back to the minor leagues as a designated hitter. About a hundred Pacific Coast League pitchers are hoping Calvin opens 2005 as a Royal, but that’s beside the point.
It’s improbable that Justin Huber, Ruben Gotay, Mark Teahen, and Andres Blanco won’t be broken up at some point due to the goals of the big league club. However, if those four guys who’ll man the infield for the O-Royals the first few months of the season got the opportunity to spend the entire year together, they could be minor league baseball’s version of The Fantastic Four. Going around the horn, with Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA and VORP projections:
JUSTIN HUBER, 1B (Ben Grimm):
| AVG | OBP | SLG | VORP | |
| PECOTA | .261 | .363 | .449 | 26.3 |
Among his three teammates, Huber’s probably stands out the most among prospect mavens, so his best comparison is The Thing. In Jim Duquette’s desperation to acquire Kris Benson from Pittsburgh last July, Allard Baird threw himself into the middle of that deal and pilfered Huber from the Mets for Jose Bautista, a waiver claim just a month earlier. An Australian, Huber blew up his knee a day before the trade was made, so his catching days are over, and the Royals are having him make a position change. Given the glut of first base and designated hitter candidates within the organization, it’s sort of strange that he isn’t being given an immediate opportunity to become something the major league team could really use like a left fielder, but his bat should carry him anyway. Huber’s always brought a very impressive package of plate discipline and power to the table, but his walk rate was particularly impressive last season. As a 22-year-old playing mostly at Double-A, Huber drew 54 walks in only 300 at-bats. Critics will point out his lower-than-desired batting average (.270) and slugging percentage (.473), but there’s still a very high probability that he’s going to be a star. For young disciplined hitters, it isn’t unusual for power to be the very last of the BA/OBP/SLG triumvirate to show up. George Brett’s pushing for him to make the club out of camp, but the Royals can’t afford to carry a guy learning a new position on the 25-man roster. Such a thing could have disastrous effects for both the player and the team. Still, if anyone’s going to make Mike Sweeney expendable down the road, it’s this guy.
RUBEN GOTAY, 2B (Sue Storm):
| AVG | OBP | SLG | VORP | |
| PECOTA | .266 | .337 | .414 | 16.7 |
You’re going to work with me on this one, because obviously, Ruben Gotay is not a woman. However, Storm’s superpower is invisibility, much like Gotay’s career to even the keenest of Royals fans. Like his teammate a few feet to the left, Ruben already has a very impressive knowledge of the strike zone for a hitter his age, and had a breakthrough season at the Double-A level last year. He’s a real "performance scouting" kind of a prospect in that he isn’t very big (a generous 6-0), and doesn’t do anything exceptionally well. After following up an encouraging full-season debut in 2002 by hitting a disappointing .261/.343/.387 in 502 at-bats for Single-A Wilmington in 2003, Gotay proved that part of his falloff was due to the Blue Rocks’ spacious park. He went to hitter-friendly Wichita last year and rebounded nicely, hitting .290/.373/.441 with 51 walks in 106 games. I’m still skeptical about his potential of being an everyday guy for the Royals because of the presence of better players like Donny Murphy. However, he’s going to have a career as a backup infielder if things don’t break his way or one as a starting second baseman somewhere if he can improve his defensive skills.
MARK TEAHEN, 3B (Reed Richards):
| AVG | OBP | SLG | VORP | |
| PECOTA | .251 | .322 | .375 | -1.1 |
Mister Fantastic is known as the leader of the Fantastic Four, and Teahen, because of his prior experience at the Triple-A level and being closest to the majors, will probably be looked on as a leader in Omaha. Everyone knows his story by now. Teahen was a member of the Moneyball draft, had no room for a promotion to Oakland because of Eric Chavez’s presence, and was part of the ransom Baird got for half a season of Carlos Beltran. The general consensus is that he’ll start the year in the minor leagues and be called up sometime in June as the everyday third baseman, but I think there’s a small chance the Royals will give him the job right away if he hits like crazy in Arizona. They probably shouldn’t do that even if he does hit seven or eight homers, but the possibility’s there. He’ll be another Royals mainstay for years to come, and has the ability and size to have a few 30-homer years.
ANDRES BLANCO, SS (Johnny Storm):
| AVG | OBP | SLG | VORP | |
| PECOTA | .229 | .283 | .291 | -9.1 |
This comparison is sort of a by-default kind of thing, but Blanco’s definitely the speediest member of the group and although he doesn’t actually throw fire, he has an incredible arm at the shortstop position. His apparent incredible defensive ability is where his value is always going to lie, because if he ever does hit, he isn’t going to do it in Kansas City. That isn’t a knock on Blanco or the Royals, it’s just that if he ever hits enough to hold down an everyday job, it’s going to happen years from now as it did with Omar Vizquel. In Blanco’s 19-game tryout with the Royals last year, he was very impressive, making multiple acrobatic plays in the field, and hitting a more-than-respectable .317/.379/.417. Unfortunately, I’m 99.9 percent certain his hitting was just a fluke. He’s displayed a good-enough knowledge of the strike zone in the past. However, he frequently got the bat knocked out of his hands by Double-A pitching last season, and wire-thin middle infielders who can’t hit in the minors don’t suddenly start hitting in the majors. Still, he’s very for-real defensively, and might one day hold the distinction Rey Sanchez did during his few years in KC as a guy who deserves to start based on his ability to catch the ball.
PECOTA expects a collective VORP of 32.8 from the minor leaguers, which is very similar to the 38.8 it expects from Harvey (9.0), Graffanino (10.3), Berroa (15.2), and Truby (4.3). Both totals are very sad, since a VORP of around 35 is the equivalent to one really good player. However, the good news is that PECOTA tends to unfairly punish players with limited time in professional ball, hence the bad projection on Teahen. Additionally, Harvey’s, Graffanino’s, and Truby’s PECOTA levels represent what’s likely the pinnacle of their careers. So while they may not be superheroes, it’s pretty clear that the kids can compete with the guys who’re already collecting service time.