The Horror of the Outfield
The time has come for Royals fans to brace themselves, because we’re staring the possibility of a Nunez/DeJesus/Long outfield to start 2005 square in the face. I know it’s only January and trades often happen all the way up to the last day of Spring Training, but color me unoptimistic that the Royals are going to get Austin Kearns or any other outfielder who’s been prominently mentioned in this space over the past couple of months. I’m not being my pessimistic self in this instance (at least not completely), because by all accounts, Allard Baird’s exhausted every avenue currently available to him to get this player. Call it being realistic … a not-so-happy realistic.
As a result, if they really do intend on giving Nunez and Long a significant number of plate appearances next year, it’s important that they maximize the usefulness of both players. That means making the best out of a bad situation, which can probably best be done by platooning Matt Stairs with Nunez and Eli Marrero with Long. Since we pretty much know that T-Long brings a .770ish OPS to the table if the vast majority of his at-bats come against right-handed pitching, the question mark is the potential of Nunez, who the Royals have told to hit exclusively right-handed in winter ball.
Since I became a sabermetric-devotee a few years ago, I can’t remember another player who’s had me so divided on what I think his ceiling as a hitter is. In other words, my brain doesn’t think much of Nunez’s potential in the least because he really hasn’t done anything in the minors that foreshadows a future regular corner outfielder. Sure, he’s done a really good job of drawing walks, but he’s been among the oldest players at each of his minor league stops since the 2000 season. He hasn’t hit for a high average (.263) or for much power (.444 slugging percentage) either. And in 221 at-bats with the Royals, all he could muster was a paltry .226/.304/.335 line, horrid for a guy who might be manning right field on Opening Day.
However, the Royals insist there’s quite a bit of potential in him to be useful, and frankly, I can see it too. For one, having him try to abandon switch-hitting was a pretty intelligent decision. The numbers don’t show that he’s a superior hitter from the right side (which is becoming a theme in this instance), but I agree that he has a lot more power hitting right-handed. Also, Nunez is a pretty well-built guy who flashed a strong throwing arm and solid range in the outfield. In short, I see a guy who has all the physical attributes necessary to be a good two-way player. It’s going to come down to Abe transforming those tools into baseball skills. He’s off to a good start, hitting .283/.431/.428 hitting line for Estrellas in winter ball.
Other stuff ...
- As much as I hated ESPN.com’s Hot Stove Heaters selection of and reasons for Juan Pierre as the game’s best base stealing artist, I loved the article that named Brad Radke as having the best control in baseball. This article had everything the Pierre story lacked: Thoughts from fellow players who’ve actually played baseball, as opposed to unnamed "major league executives" and "talent evaluators." A couple of statistical tables that support the claim that Radke’s the best strike-thrower in the game. And perhaps most important, the article was just much better written, making it 100 percent more enjoyable to read.
Not surprisingly, this one also had a different writer, a darned good one at that in Alan Schwarz. Many of you know Schwarz as the author of an amazing book on the history of baseball statistics, The Numbers Game, which has gathered many well-deserved praises since its publication. Anyway, in this article, Schwarz includes a table that shows not only the best strikeout-to-walk ratios from the 2004 season, but also one that displays a less conventional metric: Walks Per 36 Batters Faced. (Schwarz writes that 36 batters faced is "roughly a full game," but I think that number should be 40. Assuming there are no errors in the game, facing 36 batters over 9 innings works out to a WHIP of 1.00, which is just unrealistic. The 2004 American League WHIP was 1.41.) This could be a future "arbitration statistic" used in the defense of a more-hittable pitcher with great control, or against a less-hittable pitcher with great control.
Additionally, Zack Greinke fell 17 innings short of qualifying for such things as BB/36BF, but in his age-20 season, he walked 1.56 batters per 36 faced. Had he been eligible, that number would’ve put him just behind Carlos Silva (1.45), just in front of Randy Johnson (1.64), and in the company of guys like David Wells, Greg Maddux, and Ben Sheets. Pretty heady stuff for a kid only three years removed from high school.
- For any of the pro-Ken Harvey people who’re still out there, Baseball Prospectus’ player forecast system, PECOTA, has Big Calvin Pickering at a .943 OPS in 2005 (.400 OBP/.543 SLG). While I don’t think he’ll be quite that good, it’s pretty clear that somebody needs to make room for Pickering’s bat. Harvey, King of the Groundball Hitters, seems to be the obvious choice to me.