Kevin's Royals Blog

Since I sorta' slacked off in yesterday's entry, today's covers a lot of stuff, at least by my standards. Let's get started, shall we?

In what was their darkest hour, the 2004 Kansas City Royals achieved an unenviable trifecta of finishing dead last in the American League in ERA, last in OPS, and next-to-last in fielding percentage (one point ahead of Detroit). As you might expect, a team that’s the worst in the league in hitting, pitching, and catching the baseball isn’t going to have a season to remember … at least not for the right reasons. Basically, the only bright spots were Zack Greinke (who’s currently scaring the Royals to death in Surprise), the moderate emergence of John Buck, and the nifty acquisitions of Justin Huber, Denny Bautista, and Jaime Cerda for nothing more than three very ordinary players.

Incidentally, Cerda became part of what was another bright spot – the bullpen – even if “bright” is defined as a dim flashlight in a dark room. The team’s 4.54 ERA placed them 11th in a 14-team American League which is certainly nothing to brag about, but they were closer to finishing in sixth place than “catching” the Toronto Blue Jays in the cellar. Much of their success can be attributed to The Ongoing Education of Allard Baird, as the Kansas City front office finally grasped the concept that good relief pitchers can be found on the minor league free agent market and stolen from other teams if you look in the right places. Below is a table of the “free talent” relief pitchers the Royals rescued from baseball purgatory last season with their 2004 statistics:

PITCHER	IP	ERA	HOW ACQUIRED
Jaime Cerda	45.2	3.15	Trade with NYM for Shawn Sedlacek
Nate Field	44.1	4.26	Minor-league free agent
Shawn Camp	66.2	3.97	Minor-league free agent
Rudy Seanez	23.0	3.91	Minor-league free agent
Dennys Reyes	108.0	4.75	Minor-league free agent
DJ Carrasco	35.1	4.84	Rule 5 draftee

None of those guys will ever be confused with Eric Gagne (or even a guy like Steve Kline) but for little to no expenditure in financial or player resources, the Royals got 323 innings of 4.23 ERA ball out of those six pitchers. That isn’t necessarily good production from a bullpen, but there are more than a few middling relief pitchers out there making more than a million bucks to have a 4.50 ERA.

The bullpen picture for 2005 is still pretty muddy, although Cerda, Field, and Camp are all probably going to be back in the picture this season. Injuries certainly haven’t helped any, as pitchers who’d be shoe-ins in Jeremy Affeldt and Scott Sullivan have gone down with groin and back problems, respectively. Affeldt’s injury isn’t thought to be serious, (which, in Royals speak means he’ll be out for the season) but Sullivan’s status is more of an unknown. However, the Royals have a glut of decent relievers just begging for a chance to pitch, along with the guys who fail to make the starting rotation. One of my personal favorites, Indy-league refugee Byron Embry, was optioned to minor-league camp on Monday, but Baird indicated that he has a very good chance of being with the big club at some point this season.

Although I don’t like the idea of a 12-man pitching staff, I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised to see the Royals break camp with Affeldt, Sullivan, Cerda, Field, Camp, Mike Wood, and Rule 5 pick Andy Sisco in the ‘pen to start the season. If that group were to stay together for an entire season, there’s reason to believe they could at least perform at a league-average rate. With the exception of the unknown quantity in Sisco, the rest of those guys do a darned good job of keeping the ball in the ballpark with a decent strikeout rate. That’s a formula for success, and with pitching coach Guy Hansen’s help, the relief corp should be a strength for the Royals this season.

Big Calvin Pickering isn't helping my cause any. Despite the fact that the Royals should ignore his .174 batting average (which is identical to his slugging percentage) in camp, they won't, and he's probably headed to Omaha if he doesn't start hitting. But I'm not giving up the fight until the Royals see the light and let him start terrorizing American League pitchers with his beer league softball skills. Keep the faith.

The shape of the infield is going to hinge greatly on the performances of second baseman Ruben Gotay and third baseman Chris Truby. Coming into yesterday’s action, Gotay has jacked four homers and three doubles in his 25 spring at-bats to go along with a .480 batting average, and is making it difficult for the Royals to ship him back to Omaha like they’d intended. Truby’s gotten a grand total of three at-bats due to a sore left wrist that’s kept him out of action.

The interesting thing is that if Truby isn’t ready to assume his seat-warming duties for Mark Teahen on Opening Day AND Gotay makes the team as the starting second baseman, it’s entirely possible that second base incumbent Tony Graffanino will become the stopgap third baseman, Truby will be left behind in rehab, while Chris Clapinski would still be the utility man.

Royals fans all across the midwest, including yours truly, are scared to death of Greinke’s inexplicable struggles so far this spring, although Hansen believes that his control problems can be attributed to starting five inches too far to the right on the pitching rubber. Whether that will fix what ails him remains to be seen, but Studes at The Hardball Times has data that suggests Greinke might be due for a massive regression this season due to the difference in his BABIP (Batting Average on Balls In Play) and his LD% (Line Drive Percentage). This definitely isn’t a conclusive study since it only covers the 2004 season, but it gives us another reason to worry internally while being confident about his prospects on the outside. It’d be nice if the Baseball Gods would stop screwing with us KC fans just ONCE.

Speaking of the Baseball Gods, I think they’re trying to signal this as the end of the road for Kevin Appier, who’s been drilled on the shoulder by a line drive, has allowed eight earned runs in 5 2/3 innings of work, and is only topping out in the low-80s on his fastball. It’s time, Ape. Take the hint.

A lot's been made of Angel Berroa's poor plate discipline (and with good reason), but this picture shows his biggest problem when it comes to actually making solid contact with a baseball. Keep that front side closed, Angel.

Music to write by: Michael Buble, It's Time

This entry was posted on Tuesday, March 15, 2005 at 3/15/2005 12:00:00 AM. |