The Guys You Probably Haven't Heard Of
It’s extremely unfortunate that one week before pitchers and catchers report to their respective spring training camps, the big headlines in baseball involve Jose Canseco’s tell-all steroids book and Jason Giambi’s not-so-tell-all press conference. I still don’t see why fans care so much about players using steroids, especially when they weren’t banned in baseball prior to this winter. The way I see it, it’s kind of hard to be cheating when you aren’t breaking any rules. Whether fans of the game want to admit it or not, they’re all on a witch-hunt, and I’m tired of it. Thankfully, the Royals got rid of their only suspected user (Benito Santiago) a couple of months ago, so they won’t have to put up with the carnival of inquisitive media members that’s sure to follow the Yankees and Giants camps in a few weeks.
Because of Santiago’s absence, the Royals will be able to focus on things that actually matter, like choosing the best possible combination of 25 guys to head to Detroit with on Opening Day 2005. Part of what makes choosing that 25-man so difficult is deciding which non-roster invitees have the best chance of helping the team. So with many thanks to Aaron Gleeman for inspiring the idea, I’d like to run down the list of players the Royals have invited to camp this year.
As I mentioned in Tuesday’s entry, the Royals in the Allard Baird era have made good use of minor-league contracts and spring training invites, and the players they brought to camp last year were no exception. Of those players, no fewer than seven of them – Zack Greinke, Rudy Seanez, Shawn Camp, Dennys Reyes, Jimmy Serrano, Calvin Pickering, and Alberto Castillo – made at least somewhat-significant contributions to the team last year. Greinke was by far the best rookie pitcher in the American League. Camp replaced Jason Grimsley as the team’s resident worm-killer out of the bullpen (2.16 G/F ratio) while posting a 51-to-16 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 66 2/3 innings. Reyes pitched his usual league-average ball complete with a lot of walks and a lot of strikeouts, Serrano pitched 32 2/3 innings of 4.68 ERA ball, and Seanez posted a 3.91 ERA in 23 innings before being shipped to Florida for Abraham Nunez. Pickering, the only hitter who did anything worthwhile, was KC’s best hitter the last two months of the season while Castillo played like a backup catcher. Greinke, Camp, Pickering, and Castillo will be back in 2005, while Reyes signed a guaranteed contract with the Padres and Serrano signed a minor-league deal with the A’s.
This year’s list of pitchers has Kevin Appier’s name on it, which seems oddly out of place considering all the great seasons he had during his first go-around with the Royals. Sadly, Ape doesn’t have much of a chance to contribute anything positive, and he’s probably finished as a big-league pitcher. I admire his determination to keep going, but his tendency to break down faster than Firestone tires on a freeway is going to hurt the Royals far more than any innings he provides will help them. Three draft choices from a year ago – Matt Campbell, J.P. Howell, and Billy Buckner – have all been invited, but only Howell even stands the slightest chance of making the team right away. He was only in rookie ball last year, but really wowed the organization during mini camp. I can’t fathom any scenario in which the Royals would push a guy from Idaho Falls directly to Kansas City, but he’s going to move very fast through the minor leagues regardless. A promotion to Triple-A by the end of the year is not out of the question. Steve Stemle, Ryan Jensen, Jonah Bayliss, Byron Embry, and Roberto Giron will get some innings here and there, but they’re all just organizational-type guys.
The wild cards are Santiago Ramirez and Justin Huisman; both have darned good chances of earning bullpen roles with solid performances in Surprise. Huisman was stolen away from the Rockies in 2003. Relief pitchers generally aren’t prospects, but he has a solid track record of throwing a lot of strikes in 282 minor-league innings (2.62 BB/9) and using his above-average sinker effectively (one home run allowed every 28.2 innings). Additionally, Huisman saw some time with the Royals last year, getting beat around to the tune of a 6.84 ERA in 25 innings. However, he only walked eight guys against 13 strikeouts, so there’s reason to believe the 25-year-old will have some league-average seasons out of the ‘pen in the future. Ramirez has an even higher ceiling than Huisman does, but also a higher probability of totally collapsing. In short, the Royals love this guy, especially after he blew away his Winter League competition. At 26, he was a little older than most of the hitters he faced at Double-A last year, but 32 saves, a 2.63 ERA, and 9.5 strikeouts per nine innings pitched is impressive no matter which way you slice it. Ramirez has lost a little velocity on his fastball following some shoulder problems, but his changeup works as an out pitch and he still throws a workable 89-93 mph with movement. The Royals won’t hesitate to break camp with Ramirez over a guy like Nate Field. He’s one to watch, and could be the next Grimsley.
Castillo’s back as a non-roster player again this year and is the early favorite to be the backup to John Buck. The other near-lock to make the club is Chris Clapinski, who’s expected to carry Desi Relaford’s duties this year. He’s 33 years old so his OPS figures of .902 and .878 the last two seasons have to be taken with a grain of salt, but there’s no question that Clapinski’s a better player than most of the no-hit, all-field utility players teams overpay. Relaford was one of those guys last year, and the Royals correctly identified Clapinski as his equal, only at a third of the price. PECOTA likes his chances this year, projecting him out to a .259/.332/.407 line in 109 at-bats. That’s more-than-acceptable production from a utility guy. Luis Ugueto will be Clapinski’s main competition for the spot, and the Royals might decide to take his youth and potential (which is minimal, in my opinion) over his opponent’s age and experience. Denny Hocking was signed as insurance and to play for Triple-A Omaha, and Darren Fenster’s another organizational soldier who offers some plate discipline but little else.
The only outfielder with a realistic chance of making the club is Aaron Guiel, who, if his eye problems are all cleared up, remains a viable option as a fourth outfielder. He’s extremely stretched as an everyday player, but his knowledge of the strike zone and defensive capabilities make him acceptable as a short-term fix while the team looks for a legitimate everyday guy. Browns Adrian and Emil will likely be outrighted to Omaha at some point, as will Brian Hunter. The final outfielder, Alan Moye, came over as part of a trade for first-round bust Jeff Austin and Brian Shackelford in 2002. Scouts say that Moye has legitimate physical tools, but a dislocated shoulder in early 2003 knocked him out for the entire season, and he only got 87 at-bats last season after completing his rehab. He’ll definitely be one of the first players sent back, but there’s a glimmer of hope that Moye will turn into a productive player. He obviously bit into the organizational philosophy and drew 18 walks last season as a 22-year-old. If he can stay healthy, he’s a guy to keep an eye on starting in 2006.