Kevin's Royals Blog

• I know I've done quite a bit of complaining about Jim Bowden's complete disregard for Washington Nationals teams beyond 2005, but if the man's going to keep giving me material, I'm going to keep writing about it. There's nothing inherently wrong with signing Gary Bennett to be a team's backup catcher, because if you were to place Bennett's name on the Baseball Reference page of Paul Bako, Eddie Perez, Brent Mayne, or Mike Redmond, nobody would ever know the difference. Backup catchers come a dime a dozen, and outside of the really good backups like Gregg Zaun, they're all the same player.
  
  But Bowden decided to give Bennett a guaranteed $750,000 for next season, which is roughly $450,000 more than necessary for the reasons mentioned above. Heck, in all likelihood he would've taken a minor-league deal with an invitation to Spring Training from Washington without asking any questions. It's deals like this one (and those of Cristian Guzman and Vinny Castilla) that are going to add up over time, and might be the reason they won't be able to sign a more prominent free agent a few years from now.
  
  There are a lot of good people who will be or already are fans of the Nationals, and they deserve a better-run team than this. By forfeiting draft choices to sign Guzman and Castilla, he's jeopardized the team's chances down the road while throwing away money in the process.
  
  By the way, speaking of Washington Nationals fans, some DC baseball bloggers have already sprung into action. The most notable one I've found is the Washington Baseball Blog, which is written by a guy named John. There's quite a bit of solid writing and insight over there. If John keeps this up, I like his chances to be the Nats' leading blogger.
  
  
• The Padres agreed with Dennys Reyes on a one-year deal, ending my private hope that Reyes would come back for at least one more year as a Royal. The Padres are seemingly trying to bring the 2004 KC pitching staff to California (Reyes, Rudy Seanez, Darrell May, and Ryan Bukvich) which probably wouldn't work out so well for them either, but Reyes is still a quality acquisition. In an edition of Rob & Rany on the Royals this past season, Rany Jazayerli made the case for Reyes to be brought back, writing that (and I'm paraphrasing) Reyes just needs to lop off one walk per nine innings pitched to be an extremely valuable member of a pitching staff. I don't think Reyes has any chance of doing such a thing because he's already 27 years old and has thrown 476 innings in the majors, making his chances of suddenly finding his control slim at best.
  
  However, he still has plenty of value as long as he isn't making a ton of money. Despite his control problems, Reyes has always done a pretty good job of missing bats (career 8.30 K/9 rate) and keeping the ball in the park (10.3 innings/home run), two of the most important traits for a pitcher to have. Pitching in Petco Park should only help his ERA. He's going to help the Padres as long as Brad Baker doesn't get held back because of his presence.
  
  
• Every Monday, Royals beat writer Dick Kaegel answers a few e-mail questions from fans. Although I've heard some pretty harsh words about Kaegel's tendency to write "fluff" articles and not be insightful at all, I've never really had a problem with any of his stuff. That is until I read this question and answer in yesterday's Royals mailbag:
  
  

  With Mike Sweeney set at first base, have there been any rumors about trading Ken Harvey?-- Dave Y., Wilmore, Ky.
  
  No. Harvey hasn't yet produced the power numbers the Royals expect but they like his potential to improve in that area. He's also a good first baseman, and, with Sweeney's history of back problems, Harvey is a good option. In fact, he might see more duty at first with Sweeney DHing more.

  Somewhere, Calvin Pickering is crying. I have a really hard time believing that Allard Baird hasn't been working the phones trying to move Harvey's clumsy butt to a team like Tampa or Pittsburgh that might want a first baseman. All I know is that if the Royals still believe Harvey's going to hit for more power, they're going to be very disappointed. My reason behind that statement is something I referenced a few months ago in Voices from the Basement, a something I still find really funny about Harvey:
  
  

  GB/FB RATIO
  ---------------
  2003	2.49
  2004	2.34
  ---------------
  CAREER	2.43

  
  That stat places him in the company of players such as Luis Castillo, Juan Pierre, and Ichiro!, guys who could probably walk around the bases faster than Harv could run around them. His power potential has been maxed out whether the Royals want to believe it or not, and they'd be well-advised to ship him out before the rest of the league catches on.

I did a pretty good job of compensating for what could've been a pretty boring weekend. In fact, it was pretty much the perfect weekend. I filled my time by going to the first Southwest Missouri State men's basketball game of the season (which they won), watched a few movies, played some NBA Live and Madden, and just spent time with the coolest friends a guy could have. Good times.

The Royals have continued to stay under the radar, which is a status that isn't likely to change until many of the top-tier free agents have signed contracts. Sorry Royals fans, but the 2005 and 2006 seasons are going to hurt only slightly less than 2004 did. 2007 can't get here fast enough.

With that, I'm going to start reading Buck O'Neil's book, I Was Right On Time, before calling it a night. Have a great day, everybody.

In yesterday's entry, I talked briefly about what impact the departure of Mark Redman could have on the Oakland A's 2005 starting rotation. Today, while watching football and chowing down on turkey, stuffing, and sweet potatoes with marshmallows baked in, I found time to think about what the Royals rotation might look like next season.

The 2004 rotation was an utter disaster, so heading into Spring Training, there are only two pitchers who have a stranglehold on their jobs: Zack Greinke and Brian Anderson. I'm not going to waste a lot of time talking about Greinke's merits to the team, because if you're reading this article, you're either A) A Royals fan or B) A baseball fan to whom I've raved about Greinke. Either way, you probably know all about the 3.85-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio, the ranges of velocity on his fastball, and his absurd control for a pitcher his age (1.61 BB/9). Unless disaster strikes, the kid's going to be a star in this league for a long, long time.

The other lock, Anderson, had one of the worst pre-All Star break ERA and batting average against numbers I've ever seen, especially for a pitcher with Anderson's solid track record. However, there's plenty of reason to be optimistic that he'll return to his league-average form in 2005. For one, there's little reason to believe that a pitcher who's allowed a career batting average of .287 over 1500 innings will allow a batting average of .320 again. Unless he got old in a big hurry, I don't see that as a possibility. Another reason is Anderson's turnaround in the second half of the season after John Cumberland was fired and Mike Mason was brought in as the interim pitching coach. With apologies for the sloppy table (I'm learning HTML), here's BA's weird season broken up into halves, with his career numbers on the bottom:

	ERA	H/9	K/BB
FIRST HALF	7.23	14.32	1.00
SECOND HALF	4.17	9.51	1.74
CAREER	4.70	10.11	2.12

Whether his ERA dropped by 57 percent in the second half was a result of Mason's teachings or just a progression back to his mean will never be known. But the Anderson Royals fans saw after the break was the Anderson they were expecting to see from the get-go: A pitcher with good control who relies on his defense to make plays behind him. He isn't the staff leader Allard Baird envisioned when he signed him, but I think BA will give the Royals 200 innings of league-average pitching, which will make him valuable to the Royals, especially as trade bait.

After Greinke and Anderson, the picture for the 3-5 starters is muddy at best, especially after Darrell May was given a vacation (or reprieve) to sunny San Diego a few weeks ago. The Royals would be well-advised not to give up on Jeremy Affeldt, Starting Pitcher, even though I think he's better suited for short relief. The lack of starters and the dearth of relievers like Nathan Field, Danny Carrasco, Scott Sullivan, and Justin Huisman in my mind should allow Affeldt the opportunity to compete for the third starter spot. Like Anderson, Affeldt suffered through a season that can be best described as bizarre. After making serous progress with his control in 2003, Jeremy was pegged as being one of 2004's sleepers. He ended up sleeping through the entire season, striking out 1.22 fewer batters per nine, and seeing his strikeout-to-walk ratio plummet. The scary thing is that nobody can figure out why he struggled so much.

It's possible that he was plagued with the "disease" that caused every Royals pitcher pitched as badly as they possibly could -- especially when he made starts, because he showed marked improvement as a relief pitcher. But if I had to guess why Affeldt struggled so much as a starting pitcher last year, it was because he tried to pace himself too much by throwing 88-mph with his fastball when he had the ability to throw in the mid-90s. I'm certainly not an authority on stamina when it comes to pitching, but it seems to me that if a pitcher can throw 95, he should throw 95. Maybe he was afraid to "let it go" as a starter for fear that his blister problem might recur. For whatever reason, he didn't cut it loose last year, and I think he'd be a much more effective pitcher with the high-octane stuff.

After Affeldt, there are a bunch of guys who've never really distinguished themselves for one reason or another. Mike Wood did a decent-enough job in 17 starts (at least by Royals standards), and I expect his strikeout rate to rise as he matures. He already has good control and I really like what he did in the minor leagues. I'm going to pencil him in as the fourth starter.

The fifth starter spot is going to be a dogfight between no fewer than four guys already with the team, and Baird's been scouring the market looking for what he calls an "innings starter," which I interpret as meaning an Esteban Loaiza-type. Among the four pitchers who will be candidates (Runelvys Hernandez, Jimmy Gobble, Denny Bautista, and Dennis Tankersley), one will make the rotation, one will be a reliever, and the other two will be sent to the minors or, in Gobble's case, disabled if his back problem doesn't solve itself.

Of those four, I'm most excited to see what Hernandez can do with a brand new ligament in his pitching elbow. It's possible he'll come back throwing harder than ever and with extra break on his slider, which will make him more effective once he re-discovers his control. The Royals will have to be patient with him, because a pitcher's control is usually the last thing to come back after a big arm surgery.

Denny Bautista, in my opinion, still needs to pitch at and master Triple-A before becoming a fixture. And lastly, Tankersley is a guy who I think profiles better as a short reliever. His mechanics always have been and probably always will be not conducive to starting baseball games, and his wicked combination of a mid-90s sinker and hard slider just scream "CLOSER."

The Royals won't be short on quantity to choose from when they break camp next April, but after Greinke and Anderson, they'll be plenty short on quality. Here's the rotation I'd like to see to open next year, with their VORPs to the right:

NAME	VORP
Greinke	36.4
Anderson	-8.0
Affeldt	4.0
Wood	2.2
Hernandez	11.1*
===========
TOTAL	45.7
*2003

• A little under three weeks ago, I wrote about the Chiefs' thousand-yard dash victory over the Colts and Peyton Manning, which is still the most exciting game of this NFL season. Ever curious about the Colts' offense and those post and post corner patterns Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne run with great success, I started a game of Madden 2004 a couple of days ago, which pitted Manning against the Cleveland Browns.
  
  Before I get into any details about the game (which I started on Tuesday and finished yesterday), it's important to note that I typically play five-minute quarters and run a West Coast-style (ball control) offense. The Chiefs' playbook and personnel is perfect for that strategy because Priest Holmes almost never fumbles, and there are several quick slants and hooks among the pass plays that are designed to pick up 10-15 yards at a time.
  
  After awhile, however, those short passes and five-yard runs can become monotonous, so I played as the Colts with the intent of seeing just how many points I could score. To do that, I boosted the quarter length up to 15 minutes and began my game of fun-and-gun offense. My goal? 100 points in 60 minutes of football.
  
  One of the first things I learned of was Marvin Harrison's god-like abilities in the game. He grabbed almost every pass I threw his way, and even made a circus catch for good measure. Find a way to split double coverage on a post pattern (which was highly successful)? He did it. Run well past the cornerback on an all-go play downfield? No problem, he did that too. Video game Marvin Harrison is probably what Michael Vick would play like as a wideout in real life. Needless to say, Harrison had a huge game, which I'll list later.
  
  Although I'd played as the Colts before, I never knew how accurate Manning's arm was because in the past. Indy's offensive line couldn't stop any sort of a blitz, and Manning was sacked over and over again. Anyway, to say that video game Peyton could throw the ball into a teacup would be an understatement. Although he got picked off a couple of times, he had an incredible game too.
  
  835 yards of offense later, I achieved my "goal," which I suppose is pretty pathetic to have when you're talking about a PS2 game. Peyton and Co. racked up 105 points on 15 touchdowns, although three of those scores were interceptions returned to the end zone. In case anybody cares about my little achievement, here are the stars of my 105-42 thrashing of Tim Couch and the Browns (who obviously had a field day against my defense as well):
  
  Peyton Manning: 128.9 Rating, 34-49, 733 yards, 5 TD
  Edgerinn James and Dominic Rhodes: 33 carries, 120 yards, 7 TD
  Marvin Harrison: 10 catches, 306 yards, 2 TD
  James: 9 catches, 112 yards
  Marcus Pollard: 4 catches, 74 yards
  Brandon Stokley: 4 catches, 134 yards, TD
  Reggie Wayne: 3 catches, 83 yards, 2 TD
  
  Basically, I had one of those exhibition games where everything went right, and I was damn proud of it. Or at least as proud as a 19-year-old can be about winning a fake football game before moving on with his Thanksgiving break. However, if the Colts win big today at Detroit, I'll be taking the credit for giving them good karma or good luck or something.
  
  
• In what appears to be the first big trade of the winter, Pirates catcher Jason Kendall is likely headed to the A's in exchange for pitchers Mark Redman and Arthur Rhodes. Billy Beane never ceases to amaze me with his player acquisition skills. The man's ability to identify top talent he can acquire cheaply is amazing. Even though Kendall's due to make $34 million over the next three seasons, Pittsburgh is likely going to pick up a large portion of that, with the remainder mostly being offset by the contracts of Rhodes and Redman.
  
  Kendall is still one of the better catchers in baseball, posting OPS+ figures of 115 and 110 the last two seasons and having the fourth-highest VORP in baseball among catchers last season (47.5). He hasn't been a good basestealer since 1999, but he still runs well for a catcher, and has walked more than he's struck out in every season except for 1997 and 2001. Throw in Kendall's age (30), and career .306/.387/.418 hitting line, and it's pretty unbelievable that he was available for two mid-level pitchers like Redman and Rhodes.
  
  Redman's departure likely means that Justin Duchscherer will have a really good chance of being Oakland's fifth starter or, if one of the Big Three is traded, their fourth starter with Joe Blanton bringing up the rear. Either way, the A's are going to have a very strong pitching staff once again. Assuming Beane doesn't move Hudson, Mulder, or Zito, here's what Oakland's rotation might look like in 2005, with their 2004 VORP totals:
  
  

  NAME	VORP
  Hudson	48.6
  Mulder	37.2
  Zito	31.5
  Harden	41.3
  Duchscherer	30.2
  ==========
  TOTAL	188.8

  
  That's a damn good pitching staff. Few teams can boast a 37 VORP average for their five starting pitchers. The A's are going to be right there once again, and next year, I don't think they're going to miss the playoffs again.

• This blog went over 1,000 hits a few days ago, an accomplishment I'm quite proud of. The only crappy part is that it took me months and months and months to achieve that, so I guess I'm sort of the Tony Batista of bloggers.
  
  
• The Terminal was one of my favorite movies of 2004, so I felt compelled to buy it yesterday, which was its release date. I bought it not only because I have some kind of a sick DVD-purchasing problem, but also because I'm a sucker for those good ol' Tom Hanks romantic comedies. Whether it's Sleepless in Seattle, You've Got Mail, or The Terminal, I just can't get enough of them. For me, there's just something especially pleasing about watching Hanks' character -- whether he's the owner of a giant book chain or a foreigner trapped in an airport -- find happiness at the end of the movie. And if there's a better actor in Hollywood than Tom Hanks, I'd like to know who he is. I tend to think there isn't anybody better, with only Johnny Depp being remotely close to him in talent.
  
  
• The storyline of the offseason so far hasn't been which of Hudson, Mulder, or Zito might be traded, whether Adrian Beltre will stay in Los Angeles, or where Edgar Renteria's going to sign. For that matter, I haven't heard the name Carlos Beltran mentioned since the Astros were knocked out of the playoffs. The real story has been the number of mediocre-to-bad (which is to say replacement level) players who've somehow received single- and multi-year contracts worth a lot of money from general managers who supposedly knew better.
  
  First, the Cubs gave Neifi Perez a cool million bucks to serve as the team's utility infielder or, if things get really bad, their starting shortstop. After that, Washington Nationals GM Jim Bowden made a huge "splash" by signing Cristian Guzman for four years and Vinny Castilla for two. And yesterday, infielder Juan Castro proved himself to be every bit as slick as Neifi, Cristian, and Vinny are when he signed a two-year deal with the Twins for a guaranteed $2.05 million.
  
  Are you like me? Was trying to think of another Juan Castro the first thing you did after reading that last sentence? Because surely the man who built three straight division winners in Minnesota, Terry Ryan, didn't just sign THE Juan Castro, he of the career .269 on-base percentage. Sadly for Twins fans, he did, because now Castro's practically guaranteed to be with the Twins (and see regular playing time) for all of 2005, and perhaps all of 2006 as well. Suddenly, $4 million a year for Guzman doesn't look so bad.
  
  
• I found a couple of interesting polls yesterday evening, one on ESPN.com, and the other on the Sacramento Bee.
  
  The poll from the Bee asked which celebrity you'd most like to join you for Thanksgiving dinner, and I found the results to be incredibly shocking. Not only is Royals left-hander Jimmy Gobble leading by a vast margin, but he's also leading the person I voted for:
  
  > Jimmy Gobble: 22% (1,761 votes)
  > Charlize Theron: 18% (1,440 votes)
  
  I suppose it's me and 1,339 others who'd rather have an Oscar-winning actress sitting across from us than some young pitcher who's never had much success in the major leagues, but everyone's entitled to their own opinions. But just in case any of you guys who voted for Gobble haven't seen Charlize Theron before, let me present you with this little comparison:
  
  
  
  I rest my case. Sexy, thy name is Charlize.
  
  The ESPN.com poll, which was on the MLB page, asked this question, with two possible answers:
  
  Baseball hasn't had a 50-homer guy since 2002. Which would you prefer?
  
  > Tougher drug testing, even if fewer HRs
  > Juice 'em up and let 'em rip
  
  I was surprised at the results after I voted for "Juice 'em up and let 'em rip," because only 16.1 percent of the 23,508 voters saw things the way I did.
  
  I know I might catch some flak for writing this, but I don't care if major leaguers take steroids, and I don't think baseball should care either. When an athlete takes a steroid or some kind of a significant supplement, he's essentially making a deal with devil: By shooting up, he risks losing years of his life as a tradeoff to perform at the highest possible level in the present. We all saw the unfortunate demise of Ken Caminiti, in which steroids played at least a small role.
  
  If an athlete of any sport wants to take that risk, I don't see the point of standing in his (or her) way. This isn't MLB's fight to pick, so I think they'd be better off to not ban steroids and let the Sammy Sosas and Jason Giambis of the world shoot up in the on-deck circle if they so choose. If what the fans want is legitimacy attached to their game, then let them have their legitimacy by giving players the option of using. Grown men play baseball, and if they want to die young to hit a lot of homers now, that's their sacrifice to make.
  
  On that not-so-happy note, I hope everyone has a wonderful Thanksgiving. Happy Holidays, everybody.

The Montreal Expos completed their transformation on Monday, officially becoming the Washington Nationals at a press conference that closely resembled a Los Angeles Lakers ticker-tape championship parade. That, or a some kind of a celebration held by the winner of the Presidency on election night. I'm not sure which.

When the ball finally started rolling towards the Expos' inevitable move, Major League Baseball didn't really do anything to slow the process, and that haste has shown itself ever since the move was made official a few weeks ago. Jim Bowden was hired as the then-unnamed team's GM, and right on cue, he made a couple of boneheaded signings I still don't understand and traded for a good outfielder who's probably going to stir up trouble within the clubhouse before the season's over.

But perhaps the biggest sign that MLB and those involved with moving the franchise to Washington didn't quite take enough time to think things over is in the team's logo, which is one of the lousiest team logos I've ever seen in any sport:



Why did I think the logo was awful? Mostly because it lacks any sort of creativity (Washington Nationals placed over a baseball? Brilliant!), but when I saw it, a strange sense of déjà vu came over me as well. I was damn sure I'd seen a logo extremely similar to that piece of crap in the past, but it took me awhile to figure out that it looks like most every MLB All-Star game emblem in the past five or six seasons. Coincidence? You decide. Either way, the logo still sucks, just as the Nationals probably will in 2005. Book it.

One lonely Royals note ...

>>Ken Rosenthal of The Sporting News reported in an article yesterday that the Royals might be interested in signing Magglio Ordonez to a one-year deal. The blurb was nothing more than speculation, of course, but if Ordonez is healthy enough to make it through 75 games, picking him up would be a worthwhile gamble. Maggs' OPS has slipped the past two seasons from his career high .978 in 2002, but if Allard Baird could get him signed for $4-$5 million and then flip him for a prospect at the trading deadline, the Royals would be better for it.

A week ago last Thursday, fellow Royals blogger John Barten from 'Till You're Blue in the Face commented on Indiana Pacers forward Ron Artest's desire to take time off from basketball to work on promoting his rap album. John wrote, in part, the following:

Ron Artest does a couple of stupid things every year. The team knows that. Management knows that. The fans know that. Artest knows that. He'll lose some games through suspension each year. He's still worth the hassle though, and the people who say they would trade him are the same idiots who say they would rather field a team of scrappy clubhouse veterans like Bo Hart and Super Joe McEwing than have a moody, high maintenance superstar like Manny Ramirez or Terrell Owens.

At the time John wrote that paragraph, I couldn't have agreed more with him. Professional sports teams should be willing to put up with a star player's problems and moodiness, if only because the player's production usually outweighs any nonsensical behavior he may display. The Red Sox put up with Manny Ramirez not running out a ground ball to the second baseman because of his value to the club, just as the Chicago Bulls dealt with Dennis Rodman's regular on-court misconduct because he was one of the best rebounders in NBA history. But at a certain point, a player's behavior can cross a line that sends a message to the front office that he just isn't worth it anymore. And when Artest jumped into the crowd on Friday night and started beating up on anybody and everybody wearing Detroit Pistons gear, he may have crossed that line.

Thankfully, the NBA came down hard and swiftly on Artest, suspending him for the remainder of the season, and the others involved for part of the season. After I saw a replay of the altercation early Saturday morning, the very first thing that popped into my mind was the possibility that the NBA wouldn't do anything more than slap the players on the wrist like they've done in the past. $10,000 is a lot of money to 90 percent of the people in the United States, but to an NBAer making $10 million a season, that amount is pocket change. Artest's suspension without pay, which adds up to 73 games, is going to cost him millions and millions of dollars, as it should. I don't think Artest deserved to be suspended for more than twice as long as Stephen Jackson (30 games) and Jermaine O'Neal (25 games) were, but the message was going to be sent.

It's entirely possible that we may never see Artest in a Pacers uniform again if the team can find a taker, but finding that taker is going to be an incredibly difficult task. He's never been a man of character to any degree, has been suspended and fined multiple times by the league, so this fracas that broke out in Detroit might be the last straw for any team that had considered trading for him in the past. In fairness to Artest, however, people are known to change when they mess up badly and have lots of time to think over their actions. I think there's a good chance he'll return next season with an improved mindset and thicker skin, if only because he'll know that David Stern's watching him like a hawk.

Stuff from the Arizona Fall League ...

>>If there's one thing that unites all the people who have ever played professional baseball, it's that they got to live a dream most people never even sniff and that along the way, one defining moment of their careers happened, a moment they'll never forget. Donnie Murphy, a second baseman prospect in the Royals pipeline, hit the biggest home run of his life on Saturday when he blasted an opposite-field grand slam that eventually proved to be the winning runs in the Arizona Fall League championship game. Murphy didn't have very much success for the Phoenix Desert Dogs, hitting .214/.299/.393 in 84 at-bats, but that homer is one he's never going to forget. At 20, there's still tons of time for him to create more memories for himself (and for Royals fans too), but a lot of good players never hit a game-winning home run, much less a grand slam to win a championship.

>>Every year, a relatively obscure prospect changes some minds in front offices with a surprisingly-good performance in Puerto Rico or in another winter ball environment. Oakland's Huston Street was the talk of the AFL after he thoroughly dominated opposing hitters with a 0.98 ERA in 18 1/3 innings. Street walked only two and struck out 19 while displaying a mid-90s fastball, which will probably allow him the opportunity to compete for a job in the Athletics' bullpen next spring. However, his performance overshadowed another reliever's good work, San Diego's Brad Baker. Remember him? If you don't, he was one of Boston's top pitching prospects before being traded to the Padres two years ago for Alan Embree.

The trade turned out to be quite the deal for Padres GM Kevin Towers, even though after the trade, Baker suffered through a period where his velocity disappeared and he struggled for the rest of the 2002 season. A move to the bullpen proved to cure what ailed him, however, as Baker's done this since 2003:

IP	H	K	BB	ERA
162.1	123	217	78	2.94

Add in his 11 inning, three walk, 14 strikeout AFL, and the Pads have a guy who can capably replace Trevor Hoffman as the closer whenever he chooses to hang 'em up. He's clearly ready for the big time. Baker's the finest 23-year-old pitching star nobody's ever heard of, and Hell's Bells will continue to play in San Diego in the ninth inning for years to come.

Three years, five months, and thirteen days ago, the Royals drafted a high school pitching phenom. The kid had it all: A big frame. A mid-90s fastball that had been clocked as high as 100. An incredibly wicked slider. Joe Posnanski's adoration. But here we are three years later, the kid never advanced, and it appears that Allard Baird's finally seen enough. The Colt Griffin Experiment came to an end on Thursday when the Royals added four players to their 40-man roster, protecting those players from the Rule 5 draft next month. Griffin's name wasn't on that list.

It isn't like we should be surprised this happened, though. A big part of The Ongoing Education of Allard Baird is his improved focus on performance scouting, and Griffin, for all his physical gifts, just never gave the Royals any reason to believe. Even days after he was drafted with the ninth overall pick in 2001, a few writers thought there was more sizzle there than steak (he had problems throwing strikes to high school hitters too), and his "production" proved those people right.

As a result, the Royals are rightfully making Griffin available to any team that wants him via the Rule 5 draft, although I can't imagine any club being able to keep a pitcher who's not even close to being ready on their 25-man roster for all of 2005. It isn't out of the realm of possibility, however, that a club not expected to contend would pick him up and make a trade for his full rights, giving them the option of sending Griffin to the minor leagues. He might be worth it too, because for a guy who's walked 6.71 batters per nine innings of work, Griffin's done a really good job of limiting his hits allowed (8.02 per nine) and a very good job of limiting his home runs allowed (0.31 per nine).

In other words, for all his lack of success, Colt still isn't a normal pitcher. A frustrating one, yes, but definitely not a normal one. He's one of those guys who fans talk about all the time, saying, "If he could just find his control, he'd be unstoppable." They'd be right, too, because Griffin's fastball sinks like a brick in a pond, and his slider tilts so much, he can't control it (ala Dan Reichert).

There is a measure of risk for Baird by leaving Griffin unprotected, but it's a risk he needed to and did take. The likeliest scenario is that he continues to flame out and spiral into oblivion, and small-market baseball teams don't have any business protecting players like him. But what about the players the Royals did choose to place on the roster?

By now, every Royals fan knows who Mark Teahen is, although 30 years from now, those same Royals fans probably won't remember that Chris Truby kept the seat warm for him at the start of the 2005 season. Adding him to the roster was a no-brainer, especially after he's continued to demolish Arizona Fall League pitching (.390/.455/.552) and was awarded the first annual Dernell Stenson AFL Sportsmanship Award. The 'hen's going to be a good ballplayer, and seems to be a classy individual too. That's a rare combination in today's sports world.

The Royals also added Justin Huber to the roster -- another no-brainer -- because A) He's going to hit and B) He's going to hit. Huber really burst onto the scene in 2004 before tearing his ACL the day before the Royals stole him from New York, hitting .271/.414/.487 in 236 at-bats at Double-A. I'm especially impressed by the 46 walks he drew, which set his career high in BB/AB. Huber probably isn't going to catch again because of the knee injury, but he'll make a fine corner outfielder, first baseman, or designated hitter.

Devon Lowery was also a part of the Royals' disastrous 2001 draft, but he's exceeded expectations as a 15th-round choice. Last season, he kept his strikeout-to-walk ratio above two-to-one, but I'd like to see his strikeout rate continue to improve. He has a future, but whether that future is as a starter or a reliever remains to be seen. Lowery's just 21 years old, so there's plenty of time for him.

Ambiorix Burgos is the most intriguing player the Royals chose to protect. He's intriguing for the same reason Griffin's going to intrigue other clubs (a high-octane fastball and plus-breaking stuff), but unlike Griffin, Burgos has actually performed. His strikeout rate was an unbelievable 11.58 in 2004, and while his command needs a lot of work, he's still on track to be a very good major league pitcher. After all, control problems aren't unusual for 20-year-olds with blazing fastballs. If Burgos can cut his walk rate in half over the next two seasons, he'll be mentioned as one of the ten best pitching prospects in baseball. He's probably the only pitcher the Royals have in the minor leagues who has the potential to be a Johan Santana kind of great.

For those of you who I don't chat with on a regular basis, have a great weekend. As usual, I'll be back on Monday with more blather about 2005's Irrelevant Baseball Team, my beloved Royals. Voices from the Basement will probably make its return in the near future as well, as Daniel's emerged from wherever he was hiding. Happy Hot Stove League!

A couple of days ago, I wrote that one of the lousiest things about the early offseason is the lack of interesting baseball subjects to discuss. And if you've read each entry since that day, you know that my writing subjects haven't been very baseball-related to say the least. That is unless you're into the "Six Degrees of Kevin Bacon" thing, which can link Sarah Michelle Gellar -- a key component of yesterday's entry -- to Freddie Prinz, Jr. who played a baseball player in Summer Catch. With that said, I'm going to try to do a better job of putting together entries about baseball and, more importantly, Allard Baird's quest to collect as many six-year minor league free agents as possible.

So my goal for the remainder of the week and beyond is to get back on track and write stuff you might actually care about, and what better way to do that than with a juicy trade rumor? It's been reported by more than one source that the Royals are actively pursuing Cincinnati's Austin Kearns to be the "power-hitting left fielder" they so desire, and I think he'd would be a tremendous pickup for the right price. Here's what an mlb.com article said about the possible trade scenarios involving Kearns, who the Reds are considering moving to third base:

Early in the Hot Stove season, there has been plenty of back-fence talk involving Austin Kearns. One rumor has him being traded to the Expos for pitching. Another involves a deal with the Royals, which could possibly bring 20-year-old shortstop Andres Blanco and a couple of pitching prospects.

I don't know anything about the Expos rumors, so I'm not going to comment on that. But if Kearns ends up in Kansas City, the price of Andres Blanco and two pitching prospects sounds about right to me. While he's a flashy defensive shortstop loaded with physical ability, I have my doubts that Blanco's going to hit before he reaches his free agency years, meaning his greatest value to the Royals may be through a trade. To some, that price will seem excessive due to Kearns' injury problems that have bothered him over the years, but I'd be willing to risk Blanco and a couple of young arms to reap the potential rewards Kearns could bring not just in 2005, but down the road as well. And that's what Baird is looking for if he's going to trade prospects of any kind: A player who's going to be in Kansas City for more than just one season.

Additionally, Kearns is going to be a great hitter if he can put together an injury-free season, because he's shown an outstanding knowledge of the strike zone at a very young age (.095 isolated discipline), and has flashed amazing power at the major league level. In other words, the kid doesn't just hit home runs: He has the ability to hit what Jon Miller and Joe Morgan call "big flies," or high, towering, drives that travel well over 400 feet.

Kearns can not only hit, but is also a pretty damned good defender in right or left field with a strong and accurate throwing arm. Perhaps most importantly, he can cover some ground at either corner, which is extremely valuable in the vast expanses of the Kauffman Stadium outfield. I generally don't trust Range Factor as a fielding metric, but Kearns has a well above average RFg in 206 career games in right field (2.07) compared to the league over that time (1.69).

In addition to all that, he isn't going to be eligible for free agency for another three years, meaning the Royals would have the opportunity to build their outfield around Kearns, David DeJesus, and perhaps Justin Huber if he doesn't become a first baseman. That outfield would be a championship-caliber one, and perhaps a mini-Johnny Damon/Carlos Beltran/Jermaine Dye trio Royals fans were treated to a few years ago. This time, however, I'm going to cross my fingers that Kearns or Huber wouldn't be traded for anybody named Neifi.

Thankfully, Vlad Guerrero won the American League MVP award, meaning the baseball writers got the MVPs in both leagues right, which is more than I can say for their selection of Roger Clemens as the National League's best pitcher. Even though Guerrero -- who led the AL with a 93.2 VORP -- deserved the award, I think the reasoning behind his selection is faulty at best.

All I've been hearing on the radio and on TV is that he won because he had a tremendous last week of the season, catapulting the Angels over the A's to capture their division. And while that's true (Guerrero batted over .500 in the final week), the analysts are acting like the rest of the season never even happened. Guerrero did a lot to put his team in a position to make the move for the division over the first five months. That larger sample size is what the voters should be looking at, not just who came through "in the clutch" when games with playoff implications are magnified.

After all, seasons are comprised of streaks, both good and bad. Had Guerrero put together a poorer last week of the season and Anaheim hadn't beaten Oakland for the division, the MVP trophy probably would've gone to a less-deserving Gary Sheffield, and that would've been wrong. Guerrero would still have been the best player in the AL, which automatically would've made him the most valuable player to his team. But the writers are never going to see things that way. They've always voted for the best story, and they always will.

>>Three years ago, my favorite teacher in high school took a pretty good rip at Brad Pitt's The Mexican, saying the dog that was in the movie was the best "actor" in the entire film. I always admired that teacher, because he was every bit the wiseass I was then and continue to be today. Anyway, I saw Sarah Michelle Gellar's The Grudge last night, which was every bit as awful as I thought it'd be. In fact, it wasn't even Gellar's movie, because for every scene that involved her, it seemed like there were two scenes featuring the real star of the movie, which is this thing (on the right):



Yes, a blob. An annoying, black blob that somehow morphs into a person-looking thing stole the show from the (sometimes) beautiful actress on the left. The blob didn't even have any lines, except for the belching sound it made before it killed somebody by, uh … scaring the person to death, I suppose. If you haven't seen The Grudge yet, save your money. You'd be better off lighting it on fire at a baseball stadium, and you wouldn't be alone. Jim Bowden's already started that party.

The lousiest thing about maintaining a blog in the offseason is that on many days, absolutely nothing happens of any consequence and as a result, today I have nothing to write about. I haven’t forgotten that Barry Bonds rightfully won his seventh MVP award yesterday, but I don’t even find that to be very interesting. In fact, I’d be surprised if you read anything (other than news stories) about Bonds winning today, which speaks to how ridiculously dominant the man’s been over the past four season. No other player could hit .362/.609/.812 and NOT have the baseball world still in total shock nearly a month after the season ended. But when Bonds destroys pitchers to that tune from start to finish, it becomes a "been there, seen that" situation.

But if a day without any baseball, football, or movie news is going to occur, I’m glad it happened on a Monday, which is my favorite night to chill in front of the TV and watch CBS Monday, which has become a minor obsession of mine. As many of you know, the lead show on Monday nights is Everybody Loves Raymond (which was extremely funny and smart as usual), but CBS has come up with two other quality shows that lead into Raymond’s 9 p.m. eastern slot: Still Standing and Listen Up, a show starring Jason Alexander that’s based on the life of ESPN’s Tony Kornheiser.

In fact, Listen has drawn enough viewers that CBS picked it up for the remainder of the season, making Alexander the first supporting cast member from Seinfeld to have his or her own sitcom not be canceled halfway through a television season. The show’s success stems from a likeable and familiar cast, which includes Alexander, Malcolm-Jamal Warner of The Cosby Show fame, and the adorable Daniella Monet, who’s probably going to have a great career in television and movies.

With that, I’m going to wrap up this entry. My pillow’s calling my name, and with a pretty busy day ahead of me, I probably shouldn’t ignore it and stay up until 3 a.m. again. With any luck, some sportswriter will write something that pisses me off and give me something to respond to tomorrow. Or maybe Mike Young will win the American League MVP award over Big Papi and Vlad the Impaler, which mlb.com seems to think is a possibility. Whatever.

I was going to write today’s entry about the Chiefs’ win over The Fighting McAlisters, but that didn’t end up working out so well. For the second consecutive week, Trent Green & Co. lost a game they probably should’ve won, out-gaining the Saints in yardage (497-374), and dominating the Time Of Possession battle (35:44-24:16). But as was the story a week ago against the Buccaneers, turnovers ended up dooming Kansas City. They lost two fumbles (New Orleans fumbled twice but retained possession both times), Green threw two interceptions, and that was that. The Chiefs fell to 3-6, which essentially eliminates them from playoff contention. Regression to the mean is a horrible, horrible thing when it plagues your favorite sports team.

Needless to say, I’m very frustrated because of the game and because The Incredibles left quite a bit to be desired. San Francisco Giants GM Brian Sabean, however, gave me a person to take my frustrations out on with his signing of Omar Vizquel to a three-year contract worth $12.25 million. My problem doesn’t reside with Vizquel himself, because he’s still a pretty darned good defensive shortstop, and does a decent job of getting on base. My problem is with Sabean announcing the signing before the deadline at which a free agent’s former team must offer or decline that player arbitration. Sabean’s hastiness to get Vizquel under wraps before that deadline cost the Giants their 2005 first-round draft pick.

It’s one thing to sign a premier free agent whose former team was going to offer that player arbitration anyway, but it’s quite another to quick-sign Omar Vizquel, who Mark Shapiro certainly wasn’t going to offer arbitration to. But this isn’t the first time Sabean’s done this. Last year, the Royals were the beneficiary of Sabean’s idiocy when he signed another replacement-level player, Michael Tucker, before the deadline. Despite Allard Baird announcing to the world that he wasn’t going to offer any of his free agents arbitration, Sabean just had to sign Tucker 12 hours before that deadline, and the Royals used the Giants’ first-round pick on Matt Campbell. Sabean’s reason? That he didn’t want the selection, and the likely $1.5 million bonus price tag that came with it due to payroll limitations.

Perhaps I'm naive, but I just can't figure out why a team wouldn't want both the free agent and the draft pick when they could have both. And secondly, why would a team with payroll limitations spend $3.5 million on Michael Tucker, when his production could easily be replaced by a six-year minor league free agent who’s only lacking opportunity? I just don’t see the downside of losing Michael friggin’ Tucker to another team because you waited a few more hours to announce his signing.

Fast-forward to today, and Sabean’s committed the same crime for the second time, signing a replaceable Omar Vizquel for big money and forfeiting his team’s first rounder to Cleveland, who’ll probably put that pick to good use as the Royals did. Were the White Sox going to swoop in and take Vizquel from the Giants if Sabean waited any longer? Perhaps, but that isn’t something he should’ve lost any sleep over. Whether Sabean wants to admit it or not, the heart of every team’s success (or lack thereof) stems from its farm system. If he keeps this up, the Giants are going to end up hanging themselves when Vizquel, Barry Bonds, and J.T. Snow retire, because there won’t be any quality players coming up the ranks to capably replace them.

Other thoughts ...

>>The good folks at The Hardball Times have published a baseball book. I'm going to purchase my copy this week, and you, as a baseball fan, should too. Their site has become one of my daily internet stops, as it provides wonderful articles from many of the finest baseball bloggers on the 'net.

>>One of the hot topics Week 9 of the NFL brought was the (mis)management of the game by the New York Jets. I can't capably sum up what happened in my own words, so I'll quote from the game recap instead:

The Jets tied the score when Doug Brien kicked a 20-yard field goal with 5 seconds to go in regulation. But another mistake cost them a chance at a touchdown. Facing third-and-goal from the 3 following an incomplete pass, the Jets wasted their final timeout with 8 seconds remaining.

A draw play was called, but Carter broke the huddle too late and there was little chance they could get the play off in time. Instead, they kicked the field goal.

Basically, the Jets had the ball at Baltimore's 3-yard line with eight seconds to go and a timeout in their pocket. But because the play clock was about to hit zero, New York wasted their final timeout to avoid the five-yard delay-of-game penalty. This -- using a timeout to avoid the penalty -- has become a common practice in the NFL, and it doesn't make any sense to me whatsoever. A team is given only three timeouts per half, making them far more valuable than five yards in any instance. That especially holds true here; Quincy Carter would've been better off taking the penalty, because the Jets would've still been within chip shot distance of a field goal at the eight-yard line.

>>Because I didn't have a whole lot of work to get done this weekend, I spent quite a bit of time playing NBA Live 2005, which is one of the coolest sports video games I've ever seen. I've secretly been wishing for EA Sports to add in the Slam Dunk Contest, and they finally came through for me this year. Getting the timing of all the different slams down is really tough, but when you master one, the result is really, really awesome.

Someday, we're going to find this as a baseball trivia question, and nobody will know the answer. Allard’s quest to find The Guy Who’s Going to Keep the Seat Warm for Mark Teahen ended on Thursday when he signed Chris Truby.

--Crickets chirping--

Like the Terrence Long trade that preceded it, nobody outside the Kansas City community and Chris Truby’s immediate relatives are impacted in any way by this, but the pickup is interesting on at least a couple of levels.

Before delving into any numbers or analysis, it’s important to understand why Truby was chosen to, barring injury, be the third baseman on opening day. While meandering around several of my daily Royals message board stops, I’ve noticed a lot of fans upset that Baird & Co. didn’t pick up a better player. In a way, I can understand their frustration because no Royals fan wants to see extremely sub-par players (Truby’s one) on the field, being marketed as a key component. As Allard noted however, the team had to find the "right guy." He detailed what he meant in a November 10 article in the Kansas City Star:

"I'm not going to go out and get an every-day guy and offer a three-year deal. That doesn't make any sense."

[ . . . ]

"So how do you sell it? I can't go to an every-day guy and say, ‘I want you to come here, but I'm going to have Teahen ready at some point.' This guy has to be the right guy."

The "right guy" is someone good enough to play regularly for an extended period — maybe half the season or more — but not so good that he can't be moved aside once Teahen is judged ready.

In short, Allard had to present his third baseman possibilities with this outline of what was going to happen to them:

1) Play every day until Allard’s Boy is ready to go.
2) Subsequently be kicked to the curb with nothing more than a thank you.

No decent player is going to accept that lemming of a role. Although I doubt that Truby is "good enough to play regularly for an extended period" because of his .231/.269/.388 career hitting line, what he is going to provide is Joe Randa-esque defensive ability (which is to say decent) and the chance of hitting like Randa. He showed major improvement in the plate discipline department while playing for the Pirates’ Triple-A team in 2004, posting a .367 on-base percentage and a .558 slugging percentage. The improvements probably aren’t real, because Truby was extremely old for the league, but it at least provides Royals fans with a glimmer of hope that he won’t be a complete drain on the offense. I could certainly deal with a .730ish OPS from him, which might be a reasonably-likely possibility if he can replicate the plate discipline he showed at Nashville.

Truby’s real value to the team is his inexpensiveness. I haven’t found any stories that detail what his contract is worth, so if any of you have that information, I’d greatly appreciate it if you’d e-mail it to me. I’m assuming he isn’t getting any more than $500,000 to be Teahen’s placeholder which is the most Baird should’ve given him, so I don’t have any sort of a beef with the money. The only curious thing about Truby’s contract is that it’s being reported as a guaranteed, major-league deal. As rotoworld.com put it, it’s hard to imagine there being such competition for Truby’s services that a major-league deal was necessary, so I think there has to be some sort of a back story here.

I say that because Allard Baird is one of baseball’s best GMs when it comes to recognizing and signing freely-available talent, a skill that’s especially important for a man running a small-market team. Over the years, he’s found Jason Grimsley, Shawn Camp, Raul Ibanez, Aaron Guiel, Calvin Pickering, Nathan Field, Rudy Seanez, and others who’ve made significant contributions to the team either through their play or through a trade. For that reason, it’s hard to understand why Baird would give Truby – an inferior player to all of those I just mentioned – guaranteed money, even if it’s just on a one-year contract. If I had to guess, I’d say that Truby wanted some sort of compensation for agreeing to be a sitting duck, a desire I can understand.

Ultimately, that isn’t really a big deal except that the Royals must use a 40-man roster spot on the guy. That might create problems in terms of picking up or losing players in the Rule 5 draft, but that’ll have to play itself out. If the Royals lose a prospect over Chris Truby, disaster will have struck.

Like it or not Royals fans, your third baseman is some 30-year-old hack who’ll be ditched as soon as possible. Things are going to get very messy in 2005. Allard knows it.

I know I’ve been doing a lot of non-baseball posts and these little entries that, when combined, make one big entry for the day, but that’s what happens in the early offseason. Once the trades start going down and Carlos Beltran signs for eleventy billion dollars, I’ll have more actual "articles" that run down my reaction to those events. But until then…

If there’s one thing I love more than the Royals, baseball, John Mayer music, and Catherine Bell, it’s f---ed up news stories that aren’t from The Onion. Check out this beauty from Yahoo!’s Oddly Enough section:

Actor Jim Belushi says his next-door neighbor, actress Julie Newmar, is spying on him, destroying his property and calling him names behind his back.

[ . . .]

Belushi says that Newmar, 71, destroyed a fence and landscaping on his property, spied on the actor and his family and directed loud music into his backyard.

By the way, Julie Newmar’s agent (What the hell is she doing that requires an agent?) essentially denied the allegations. Anyway, I had to read that last sentence of the article three times to fully grasp what it was saying. If you have to read it five times, I understand, because that has to be about the strangest scenario ever. Let me see if I can sum that up: According to Jim Belushi, 71-year-old former Catwoman actress Julie Newmar somehow defaced his property and made a lot of noise while spying on his family. That’s so incredibly bizarre I’d rather not believe either side, but since somebody HAS to be lying here, one of two things happened:

1) Jim Belushi is a hallucinating, lying, doodie-head.
2) Julie Newmar, at age 71, is having keggers at her home and blasting God-knows-what into Belushi’s backyard.

I’d like to be a humanitarian and hope that Belushi hasn’t gone insane, but that might be the lesser of two evils. I seriously hope this woman (or mannequin, if you prefer) isn’t "direct[ing] loud music" into anyone’s backyard for any reason. That’s just creepy. The article continues:

The suit, filed last week in Los Angeles County Superior Court and made public on Monday, describes Newmar's behavior as "an effort to force Belushi to move from his home."

Yes, that's right. Like a spirit who's pissed off that you've destroyed her old kitchen with ugly wallpaper, Jim Belushi believes that Catwoman is trying to force him to take his residence elsewhere. Sounds like there's only one thing left to do, and that's asking these guys for help:

• Lost in the shuffle of Monday’s trade that brought Terrence Long and Dennis Tankersley to Kansas City was the Royals’ signing of Chris Clapinski, a 33-year-old minor league infielder. Clapinski, who I’m going to call "The Clapper" because I want to, signed a minor-league deal and as of right now is the favorite to be the team’s utility infielder in 2005.
  
  Clapinski being the team’s jack-of-all-trades infielder isn’t such a horrible thing, especially since he couldn’t possibly be any worse than Desi Relaford was in the same role last year. In fact, he’s had a very productive career as a Triple-A roster filler, spending at least a portion of each of the last nine years at that level. He’s shown good strike zone management skills and moderate power, making him a better player than a lot of the backup infielders some teams are employing for a lot of money (Jim Hendry, I’m looking in your direction). His 2004 hitting line translates into a .257 MjEQA (Major League Equivalent Average), which trumps anything The Neifi’s going to give the Cubs next year. He’s also been productive in 105 major league at-bats, hitting .267/.355/.400.
  
  Chris Clapinski is another one of Allard Baird’s reasonable gambles in the mold of Cal Pickering and Jimmy Serrano, and I don’t really have a problem with it because of the low-risk nature of his signing. However, this likely ensures that one of my favorite players, Jed Hansen, will be signed by some other organization as a six-year minor league free agent, as Clapinski was.
  
  Ultimately, there’s absolutely zero difference between Hansen and Clapinski, as their skillsets and age are damn near identical. Still, the Royals’ outright refusal over the years to use Hansen as a utility player is baffling. There’s no telling how many inferior players they put on the 25-man roster when he’s been just a short drive away from Kansas City.
  
  But it isn’t all bad. After all, the 2005 Royals could have guys nicknamed "Tank" and "Clap" on the team next year. That’s pretty damn cool if you ask me.
  
  
• I’ve never watched Last Comic Standing on NBC, but I might start watching religiously after seeing Gary Gulman perform on campus. He was one of three finalists from the show’s third season, and it was very easy to see why. He not only had solid material (one bit about Fig Newtons was laugh-til-you-cry funny), but his delivery of the material was flawless and seemingly effortless. In my opinion, the guy’s a natural and a must-see if he’s performing in your area. I guarantee you won’t be disappointed.
  
  
• I was at a local department store last Sunday in search of a couple pairs of jeans and a couple of shirts when I saw a guy walking towards me, talking to somebody. Unusual? It wouldn’t be, except there wasn’t anyone walking with him. It turns out that he was using one of those hands-free ear piece devices that are an accessory to cell phones nowadays. In a store. When he wasn’t driving.
  
  Now I’m pretty damn lazy, but I haven’t become so lazy that I can’t hold a phone to my ear when I want to talk to somebody. Perhaps these people who’re using the hands-free device outside of a car are going to be considered trendsetters in a few years, but I think they just look stupid. Folks, nobody thinks you’re cool because you have a tiny headset in your ear, and nobody’s going to be confusing you for somebody important like a Secret Service agent. Lose the headset, and use a cell phone like a normal person.

Allard Baird and Kevin Towers rang the opening bell on the 2004 winter trading season on Monday, announcing that outfielder Terrence Long, pitcher Dennis Tankersley, and cash is heading to Kansas City, and that pitchers Darrell May and Ryan Bukvich are going to sunny San Diego. When I read the story about the deal on mlb.com, I could hardly contain my excitement. Yeah, that seems bizarre given that nobody besides Royals and Padres fans give a crap about this non-consequential deal, but I just think trades – especially Hot Stove League trades – are cool and interesting to dissect. So what kind of an impact will this deal have on the 2005 Royals? The short version is that it won’t do a damn thing positively or negatively.

But I don’t write this blog to be short and sweet (unless it was last Friday), and you, my few but loyal readers, don’t read this blog to get an unreasoned, one-sentence opinion. If you want that nowadays, all you have to do is head over to ESPN.com. Anyway, the deal can be best evaluated if broken down into two key "battles" between the two guys with the contracts (May and Long) and the two kids without ‘em (Tankersley and Bukvich).

Round One: May v. Long

This is a classic swap of bad one-year contracts and bad attitudes, not entirely unlike the Eric Karros/Mark Grudzielanek swap before it. Darrell May’s contract is only bad because he had a terrible 2004 and, perhaps as a result of his frustration, said some things he probably shouldn’t have said about his offense’s "lack of run support" when he was on the mound. Joe Randa said after the season that Darrell had a tendency to rub some guys the wrong way with his remarks, so I’m not at all surprised he was jettisoned. Royals fans generally dislike Darrell for those remarks and for his horrendous 19-loss season, but one thing needs to be made clear: Something clicked for him in Japan, and he posted solid K/BB ratios in each of his three seasons with the Royals. Darrell May is not as bad of a pitcher as he showed in 2004, although he isn’t as good as he was in 2003. I wouldn’t be at all surprised if The Real Darrell is slightly better than the 2002 version, which would make him bearable as a fifth starting pitcher. He’s a replacement-level lefty who’ll definitely help the Padres as a durable 200-inning guy.

In Terrence Long, the Royals are adding some much-needed outfield depth with a guy who can play all three outfield positions. Allard Baird says that T-Long will battle Abe Nunez for the starting right field spot in Spring Training, but I can think of about 4,700,000 reasons why Long will end up winning that battle. In the end, Long and Nunez are likely the same player, meaning your run-of-the-mill .740 OPS fourth outfielder. Long gets bonus points for his versatility and having better speed, though. As long as the Royals use Terrence exclusively against right-handed pitching the way San Diego did a year ago, he’ll be an asset either in a surprise run for a playoff spot (unlikely) or as trade bait (very likely). Long hit a solid .305/.350/.430 against righties in 2004.

Advantage: Even. Both teams traded a replacement-level guy from a position of depth and added a replacement-level player to a position that lacked depth. The money’s a wash, since the Padres kicked in the difference between Long’s and May’s contracts.

Round Two: Bukvich v. Tankersley

It wasn’t too long ago that Dennis Tankersley was widely considered one of the five best pitching prospects in baseball, and with good reason. In 2001, "Tank" was named the Minor League Pitcher of the Year after he posted a ridiculous 1.72 ERA in 156 1/3 innings of work, which spanned stops at Single-, Double-, and Triple-A. His star has fallen considerably since then, but he’s still only 26 years old, has filthy stuff (his 7.11 K/9 ratio in the majors is very good), a funky delivery, and will get to work with one of the best pitching minds in baseball, Guy Hansen. The only statistical problem I’d like to see corrected is his control. If Hansen can get him to harness his stuff, the Royals might have a poor man’s Kevin Appier on their hands.

The Padres are adding a similar pitcher in Ryan Bukvich, but I’m considerably less high on him, a reliever, than I am Tankersley, a guy who has the stamina to start. Nobody’s ever denied that Buk has incredible velocity on his fastball, but comparably, nobody’s ever denied that he has no idea where it’s going. The Royals tried everything to get him to harness his control, including having him throw from at least three different arm angles since he was drafted in 2000. The light never came on, and now he’s going to be fighting for a spot as the last man out of the Pads’ pen. There’s a chance he might suddenly "get it" and be the 2005 version of Scott Linebrink, but I doubt it.

Advantage: The Royals won this swap easily. Tankersley’s ability to start automatically makes him more valuable, because there’s a good chance neither guy will become anything very useful. Tank and his great minor league ratios have considerably more upside, however.

For those of you scoring at home, the Royals came out on top on this one. One of Allard’s best skills as a general manager is turning nothing into something or a player who might be something. He did that when he traded Jeff Austin and Brian Shackelford to Cincinnati for Alan Moye and Damaso Espino and when he acquired Nunez from Florida for Rudy Seanez, and he did it again in getting Tankersley. This is a good start to the offseason. Next on the shopping list is a power-hitting left fielder. Jose Guillen, anyone?

I’m quickly learning that there are many great advantages to having your own blog. For a sports-minded dude such as myself, this space gives me a forum to talk baseball and football and share my opinions on the different aspects of each sport. That’s a wonderful thing for my friends and family in particular, because I probably talk their ears off less with trivial information they probably never cared about in the first place. But another plus of having a blog – especially for a young person – is that having a goal of writing something new five days a week A) Probably improves my writing skills and B) Allows me to discover what and how I write best.

To be honest with you, I didn’t have the slightest clue what I was going to write for today’s entry as of roughly two hours ago. In fact, I became so frustrated in trying to fix the carnage that is the Zack Greinke Article, I decided to suspend my topic-worrying by having a cheeseburger while listening to some good ol’ John Mayer music. I wasn’t at all surprised that the cheeseburger tasted good and that John plays "Why Georgia" flawlessly every time I pop Room For Squares into the CD player, but I was surprised that my plan actually worked.

To make a long story short, I came back to my computer totally refreshed and clear-minded, ready to write and armed with a new knowledge: I need to stop trying to be Aaron Gleeman. Don’t get me wrong; Aaron’s a freakish young writing talent in the way that Greinke’s a freakish young pitching talent, and I definitely admire both guys for their respective abilities. However, I usually don’t write decent articles when I have to interrupt the flow of a paragraph with some kind of a data table. I don’t know why, but I guess my mind just doesn’t work like that. So here I am, writing in a format I’m comfortable with: A more personal format. What I’ve learned is that there’s no one correct way to write, and that my writing voice is one that a lot of people would probably enjoy too.

With that said, I had a pretty good weekend, but with one moment mixed in that I wish I could go back and do over again. Unfortunately, this moment involved a girl who I’ve had a crush on for awhile who I saw at Southwest Missouri State’s first exhibition basketball game. It was just a night with the fellas for the first half of the game, until I ran into the girl at halftime. She eyed me at the worst possible moment, which is to say I was in the process of talking to one of my friends about the Bears’ new transition game and wolfing down a hot dog and chips. We’ll call the girl Abigail Smith. Our "conversation" went as follows:

Girl: Kevin! How are you?
Me: [With mouth full] Abigail freaking Smith! Oh, I’m okay. Just eatin’ some food. How are you?
Girl: Pretty good, pretty good.
---Awkward silence as she waits for me to respond---
Girl: [To friend] And how are you?
Friend: I’ve been doin’ well, thanks.
Girl: [To me] Well, it was good seeing you again.
Me: You too.
Me: [Panicking] Hey, you look good.
Girl: Thanks.

For a guy who’s been told he bears a slight resemblance to Justin Timberlake, I’m not very smooth. I talked with my mouth full. And Abigail freaking Smith? Are you freaking kidding me? And then if it wasn’t bad enough, I had to throw in that "You look good" remark, which means she probably thinks I’ve turned stupid since high school. We’ve all had those moments – especially us guys when caught off guard like that – but that’s one of the worst efforts of all time when it comes to a guy trying to convince a girl he’s dateable. Hopefully I’ll see her again, and this time not ruin an opportunity to ask her out.

On the bright side, things could be worse. I could’ve had one less cheeseburger, been without John Mayer’s high quality tunes, and not know what kind of a writer I am. At age 19, it doesn’t get any worse than that.

I'm just going to forget the whole "Greinke for ROY" article. I basically finished the thing, read it over, and realized what I'd written was helpless crap. And I'm sure as hell not going to post something I think is boring.

I hope everyone has a good weekend. With some luck, I'll be able to write entries that are of somewhat decent quality starting on Monday.

I don't have my report on Zack Greinke's ROY chances ready quite yet (CSI tends to distract me from doing productive things like writing), but check back here later today. I should have it posted before the night's over.

I was going to find something interesting to write about for today's entry, but no words of mine could have possibly topped this:



That's reason #1,284,403 why the 2004 Red Sox are the coolest sports team ever.

The Royals invited ten players to the team’s 2005 Spring Training camp on Tuesday, although the only names that are even somewhat recognizable are those of Aaron Guiel and Alberto Castillo. Adrian Brown, an outfielder who saw action in five games with the Royals last year, was also invited, but he’s probably slated to be an outfielder for Triple-A Omaha next season.

Of the remaining seven, three – pitchers Santiago Ramirez, Roberto Giron, and Byron Embry – probably won’t ever see any success in the major leagues. Pitcher Justin Huisman will have a chance to win a bullpen job out of camp, and pitchers Matt Campbell, Billy Buckner, and J.P. Howell were 2004 draftees who the Royals want to give some major league experience to.

The Royals invested three high-round draft choices in Campbell, Buckner, and Howell, and thus far they’ve gotten mixed returns. All three of them pitched at low-A Idaho Falls; Buckner (3.30 ERA in 30 innings) and Howell (2.77 ERA in 26 innings) were effective, but Campbell (8.44 ERA in 10 2/3 innings) was downright horrific. But no matter how effective or ineffective the trio of college hurlers was, the Royals’ decision to draft them is an example of the positive direction Allard Baird’s taking the Royals in, even with the Disaster that was 2004.

For years, KC’s scouting department, led by Deric Ladnier, made incredibly risky selections with the team’s first and second round picks (see Griffin, Colt) that not surprisingly haven’t exactly worked out. However, it’s pretty clear that those days are gone, and Howell, Campbell, and Buckner exemplify why. By every scouting report I’ve read, none of the three exactly "wow" anybody with his assortment of pitches. Because they all only pitch consistently in the high-80s with their fastballs, it’s clear that the Royals chose them based on performance rather than raw ability, and perform they did. Courtesy of a wonderful file of college baseball statistics from The Hardball Times (RSAA = Runs Saved Above Average):

	IP	H	BB	K	ERA	RSAA
Howell	111.2	69	41	134	2.01	59.7
Campbell	99.2	78	25	118	3.07	37.6
Buckner	74	65	20	91	3.04	30.8

These selections were Moneyball picks to the very core of the philosophy. None of ‘em may have outstanding stuff, but to post lines like they did with outstanding ratios across the board, obviously all three of them do something right. And when you consider Buckner and Campbell were teammates at South Carolina, well, I guess playing the Gamecocks wasn’t a very pleasant experience for most teams.

As I mentioned earlier, Howell’s and Buckner’s solid NCAA lines immediately transferred over to the pro game, and Campbell probably just had a bad ten-inning stretch. The only area of concern with him is his complete loss of command; Campbell walked 10 guys in those 10 2/3 frames. And while it wouldn’t be a complete surprise to hear that he has a torn labrum or needs Tommy John surgery, I’m going to hold out hope that isn’t the case and that he just needs a winter to rest.

Of the three, I think Howell has the highest upside if only because he was the fifth-most effective pitcher in NCAA Division I baseball a year ago by Runs Saved Above Average. He also has a deceptive delivery to home plate and a good, hard slider. Howell, if he stays healthy, might be another Jarrod Washburn.

A few thoughts after a day of a little work, some Everybody Loves Raymond, and "saving" the family from a wasp that got in the house:

• In case you've never had the privelege of killing a wasp, it's quite the chore, as they'd probably make for a good way to fight the terrorists. My weapon of choice? So many rolled up newspapers that it resembled a club. I hit the wasp once after it landed on a wall, which did absolutely nothing; it flew away and landed on a recliner. I think I pounded the bug (which was apparently wearing body armor and an FBI bulletproof vest) three times while it was on the chair (four times total) and at that point I'd only severely wounded the damn thing to where I could shovel it onto a sheet of the newspaper and toss it outside to go bother somebody else. Sick enough of those on Osama Bin Laden, and Captain Turban wouldn't have a chance in hell of escaping.
  
  
• I watched Saw on Sunday afternoon, and it's one hell of a good movie. The acting's a little cheesy and the plot has plenty of holes in it (If you're chained to a pipe and have a gun and one bullet, why don't you shoot the chain?), but the story is original and the plot takes a severe right turn in the final 30 seconds. Some people don't like films that make them think they have everything figured out and then take a twist, but I love 'em. And if you're like me, the ending will leave you shocked and generally terrified. It's a solid flick, and a must-buy for me when it hits DVD.
  
  
• While I was watching Saw, the Chiefs and Colts were busy putting the finishing touches on arguably the most exciting game of this still-young NFL season, a track meet that yielded a combined 80 points and 1,095 yards. Fortunately, this time the Chiefs came out on top, although a regular season win definitely doesn't atone for the 38-31 playoff loss at the hands of the Colts in January. Both games were a lot of fun to watch, mostly because of the incredible Peyton Manning. I continue to be amazed at how the Colts' offense almost never huddles up, which maintains their momentum and prevents the defense from making very many substitutions. It's a strategy that makes sense if your quarterback, linemen, backs and receivers communicate well with each other, and I have to wonder why more teams don't use the hurry-up offense like Indy does.
  
  One interesting note from the game: The Chiefs racked up 590 yards of total offense, which means they essentially covered the football field six times. They put six touchdowns on the board along with one Lawrence Tynes field goal. The Colts picked up the remainder, which would be 505 yards, or roughly five times covering the entire field. They scored five touchdowns. I don't know if there's anything to this trend in particular, but it'd be something interesting to research. We know that yards allowed and scores allowed are generally related, which is why Greg Robinson's defensive strategies were so flawed. It isn't okay to give up a lot of yards in between the 20s "as long as you stop them from scoring." If a football team's giving up a lot of yards but no points, they've either been lucky or extremely opportunistic by creating turnovers. Either way, the floodgates are bound to open, just as they did with last year's Chiefs team.
  
  
• Believe it or not, Rickey Henderson's still playing professional, organized baseball, and at last report didn't even need a walker (Rickey don't need no walker!) or be fed applesauce by a nurse at the seventh inning stretch (If Rickey's gonna be fed by a nurse, Rickey's nurse had better be a hot nurse!). But all jokes aside, Henderson played 91 games for the Newark Bears in the independent Northern League, and tore stuff up to the tune of a .281/.462/.436 hitting line. In addition, Rickey stole 37 bases and was caught only twice, a success rate that would make Carlos Beltran proud.
  
  Rickey's going to be 46 years old on Christmas Day, and while I admire his perseverance and desire to keep playing baseball at some level, I wish he'd just hang 'em up so baseball can put him in the Hall of Fame as soon as possible. Sure, that .462 on-base percentage he put up last year is incredible, but check out his batting averages in MLB since 1998:
  
  

  Year	AVG
  1998	.236
  1999	.315
  2000	.233
  2001	.227
  2002	.223
  2003	.208

  
  Many of you who're reading this either know me personally or know me through my writing, so you're undoubtedly familiar with the fact that I just don't use batting averages as a tool to evaluate the abilities of hitters. However, it's pretty clear what's happened to Rickey's ability to make contact, and 1999 sticks out like a sore thumb. The only value Rickey provides a major league team with is his ability to draw walks (which he still does very well) which has essentially been negated by his inability to avoid outs. He has 3,000 hits, the all-time runs scored record, and is second all-time in walks. That's a great career by one of the most special talents anyone's ever seen. My hope is that he doesn't completely embarass himself so baseball fans can remember him as the great player he was, not the washed-up has-been who didn't know when to quit.

Ever since the Royals acquired Mark Teahen in late June as part of the Carlos Beltran deal, Allard Baird’s stance on when his third baseman of the future would make his first appearance as a Royal has been steadfast: That Teahen is going to open the 2005 season at Triple-A Omaha no matter what. However, baseball players have a tendency to change the thinking of a team’s management by displaying new and improved skills, and that’s exactly what Teahen’s done in the Arizona Fall League. Through the games of October 30, here’s the carnage he’s inflicted upon AFL pitchers in 59 at-bats:

AVG	OBP	SLG	R	RBI
.441	.507	.678	16	13

It's entirely possible that all this is is a Bondsian two weeks, but there's real improvement here. Many of his peripheral statistics are up from his minor league season as well, including his walks per at-bat and isolated power.

The one variable that’s forced me to maintain my opinion that Teahen’s going to be another Joe Randa as opposed to another Jason Giambi is that the AFL is very much a hitters’ league; batters hit .276/.349/.421 in it from 2001-2003. But unless Teahen’s home park in Phoenix has a hitting background similar to that of Kauffman Stadium’s, the rise in his walk rate would probably be legit no matter which fall/winter league he played in. And as many of us believe, an ability to get on base is a very important trait good offensive players have.

Teahen’s improvement offensively (and defensively, according to the article I linked yesterday) at least has Shaun McGinn, KC’s director of player development, saying that the opening day third base job is "still up in the air." However, McGinn still concedes that the likelihood is that he starts the year at Omaha before getting the job at the hot corner come midseason.

The bottom line is that in Teahen (who looks an awful lot like Dean Palmer), the Royals appear to have a solid everyday third baseman whose ceiling is probably as a Corey Koskie-type player. That isn't bad at all, especially when he'll play for roughly $300,000 until 2007.