Kevin's Royals Blog

For KRB readers living in the Springfield, MO area, the Royals annual Winter Caravan will visit Bass Pro Shops & Outdoor World next Thursday, January 5 from 7-8 p.m. Andrew Sisco, Mark Teahen, John Mayberry, Brian McRae, and Sluggerrr will be there. KRB will be in attendance as well, so after you've visited with the four former and current Royals, stop by and say hello to the kid wearing the KC powder blue trucker cap.

Kevin Millwood's a Ranger, Troy Glaus has moved to Toronto, and Jeff Reardon's trying his hand at robbing jewelry stores. If the mood strikes you, feel free to discuss that stuff or anything else in today's comments thread.

We're back!

I hope everyone in Royals Nation had a great holiday weekend, and that you got everything on your wish list. KRB ended up with quite the haul, and while Try! (John Mayer Trio's first album) hasn't been taken out of my CD player, my favorite gift is still the very-cool Mayer poster from KRB's best friend, Meagan. Well, that, and the gift of turning 21. Have I mentioned that John Mayer's my favorite musician?

On to the Royals news...

Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA is my player projection system of choice, but Baseball Think Factory's Dan Szymborski's ZiPS is pretty darned good in its own right. A little more than a month ago, Szymborski released his 2006 ZiPS for the Royals. While Dan's system isn't at all optimistic about the Royals' pitching, the offense doesn't look quite as bad. Using his projected numbers, -- which give us just a rough view at what each player's 2006 season may look like -- my own opinions and the reality of what the Royals probably will do, here's the best possible lineup they can field next April:

                         AVG     OBP     SLG
CF David DeJesus        .295    .372    .442
1B Doug Mientkiewicz    .272    .369    .397  
DH Mike Sweeney         .293    .355    .492
RF Reggie Sanders       .247    .306    .457
LF Emil Brown           .283    .346    .440
2B Mark Grudzielanek    .290    .330    .394
3B Mark Teahen          .260    .324    .380
C  John Buck            .257    .309    .407
SS Angel Berroa         .276    .318    .401

`

That lineup probably looks similar to the one any of you would expect with the exception of Doug Mientkiewicz hitting second behind Johnny Damon v2.0 and Mark Grudzielanek hitting sixth. Over the years, the media has brainwashed baseball fans into believing that the second-place hitter should be a guy who "handles the bat well," a phrase that, to them, means he's valuable because he can get a bunt down. Grudzielanek fits that bill, but that doesn't mean he should get the second-most plate appearances on the team.

Lineups are very much an inexact science, but the purpose of it is not to "set up innings" in a "get 'em on, get 'em over, get 'em in" sense. On the contrary, good lineups should feature a team's best hitters at the top and its weakest near the bottom. Common sense tells us that to maximize an offense's run-scoring potential, the best hitters (read: those who make the fewest outs) should get the most chances to hit, whereas those who make the most outs should get the fewest opportunites. That's why I have Mientkiewicz hitting four spots ahead of Grudzielanek, a hitter whose abilities are overstated because nobody seems to understand the very simple concept that outs are bad.

"Nobody," of course, includes every manager in baseball, and after we saw Terrence Long bat high in the order for much of 2005, I'm sure that Royals skipper Buddy Bell is no exception. Mientkiewicz may not be a good first baseman because of his lack of power, but he doesn't make a lot of outs and plays a damned good first base, so he'll earn his playing time.

Overall, that offense looks to be much improved from 2005, especially at the corner outfield positions. Kansas City leftfielders hit just .276/.324/.396 last season. I expect Reggie Sanders to beat his projection by a lot and Emil Brown to fall a little short of his.

Other notables from Szymborski's projections include Justin Huber (.279/.360/.443), Chip Ambres (.249/.351/.406), Matt Stairs (.254/.338/.412), and KRB favorite Calvin Pickering (.255/.362/.488). I didn't include those guys in the lineup because, barring injury to one of the starters, they'll either be playing in Triple-A for most of the year (Huber), won't be a regular (Stairs), or isn't appreciated by his team (Pickering). Ambres, however, may win a roster spot as the fifth outfielder.

As I mentioned earlier, the pitching staff doesn't look nearly as good as the offense does. Using the same criteria, here's a possible rotation and bullpen to open the season, again with Szymborski's projections:

                            IP     ERA     SO     BB
Scott Elarton              171    5.53     98     54 
Mark Redman                183    4.82     99     61
Zack Greinke               186    4.69    119     45 
Runelvys Hernandez         148    4.80     80     62
Joe Mays                   136    5.49     47     39

`

                            IP     ERA     SO     BB
Mike MacDougal              65    4.57     59     30
Andrew Sisco                77    4.32     78     41
Ambiorix Burgos             67    4.70     69     35
Joel Peralta                53    3.91     47     18
Jeremy Affeldt              92    4.50     68     35
Mike Wood                  147    5.08     85     50 

`

ZiPS expects quite a regression from Scott Elarton, and while I'm no big fan of the signing, I also think he'll do quite a bit better than a 5.53 ERA given the Royals' improved infield defense. Everyone else in the rotation looks about right to me, although I'm sure that injuries and ineffectiveness from Joe Mays will eventually give J.P. Howell (ZiPS 4.68 ERA) a chance this summer.

Moving on to the bullpen, given his flaky history, expecting Mike MacDougal to suffer through a regression doesn't come as a surprise to me, but I'm a little bit stunned that ZiPS doesn't think Ambiorix Burgos or Andrew Sisco will improve at all in their sophomore seasons. Both simply got tired near the end of the season, and I expect they'll be better conditioned to make it through 162 games this time around.

And how about the 2004 Shawn Camp-esque projection for waiver wire claim Joel Peralta? The Royals would be thrilled if he gave them 53 innings of 3.91 ERA ball.

Other Royals Notes...

According to the Fort Worth Star-Telegram, former Royals pitcher Brian Anderson is expected to sign with the Rangers sometime before spring training begins. Always one of KRB's favorites for his attitude, work ethic, sense of humor, and flawless use of the term, "Donkey Punch" in a sentence, Anderson will miss at least the first month of the 2006 season while he continues to recover and rehab from Tommy John surgery. I'm saddened that BA will probably leave Kansas City, but I'll be cheering him on for the rest of his career.

I know that hating on kcroyals.com beat writer Dick Kaegel has become a little bit cliched, so to be fair, I thought I'd bring this up from Mark Sheldon's article about Mays' one-year, $1 million contract with KC:

But despite carrying some risk for the Royals, Mays has had success pitching in KC. He is 4-0 with a 3.89 ERA in eight career appearances at Kauffman Stadium.

Could Mays' track record in Kauffman Stadium be any more irrelevant, given that in those starts, he was pitching against the bad offense he now pitches for? This is a perfect example of statistics being misused by somebody who doesn't know what he's doing.

The 1985 World Series was memorable for so many reasons for Royals fans old enough to remember it, one of which being the birth of Bret Saberhagen's son. 20 years later, Drew Saberhagen -- who is the spitting image of his father -- is an infielder for Pepperdine University. Time flies.

I'm not sure what I'd rather have for Festivus ... A donation made in my name to The Human Fund, or Joe Mays as my favorite team's fifth starter, an idea that doesn't seem so bad now that I've been reminded of his recent Tommy John operation. At any rate, here's a warm KRB welcome to new Royals Reggie Sanders and Mays!

Ken Rosenthal's report was correct. Reggie Sanders confirmed to Jeff Passan of the Kansas City Star that he has agreed to a two-year, $10 million contract with the Royals, and that he expects to sign the deal today.

In the same article, this bit of news is kind of interesting:

The Royals have offered right-handed starter Joe Mays a major-league contract and view him as a potential fifth starter.

"We do have interest in him," Baird said.

Mays’ best season was in 2001, when he went 17-13 with a 3.16 ERA. Last year, he went 6-10 with a 5.65 ERA with the Twins.

Given the insignificance of the fifth starter on a non-playoff team, I guess I shouldn't complain too much about this. However, I don't have the slightest clue why the Royals would want to give Mays a guaranteed contract, especially when he's been nothing short of awful the past couple of seasons for Minnesota. Oh, and his trend indicators aren't all that good either. Never one to miss many bats in the first place, Mays only struck out 3.40 batters per nine innings pitched last year, a career low for the 30-year-old.

If all the Royals want out of the back of their rotation is another sacrificial lamb like Jose Lima, they could find him on the minor-league free-agent market. Giving a contract to Mays is short-sighted and doomed to fail before the ink dries.

According to FOXSports.com's Ken Rosenthal, the Royals are close to signing 38-year-old outfielder Reggie Sanders to a two-year contract worth about $10 million, perhaps partially because Mark Grudzielanek, a teammate of Reggie's with the Cardinals a year ago, signed with Kansas City last week. Still, if the report is true, Sanders becoming a Royal will be an upset. Just nine days ago, Royals GM Allard Baird declared his club "pretty much out of the Sanders thing."

The Royals presumably stepped up their pursuit of Sanders almost immediately after Jacque Jones spurned their offer of three years and $15 million, instead opting to join the Cubs for an extra million bucks and a better chance to compete. Trust me: the Cubs did the Royals a massive favor by taking Jones off the market for that price. As I've discussed in a previous post, Jones is nothing more than a platoon player who became massively overrated once an already-thin free-agent market for outfielders became thinner after Brian Giles re-signed with the Padres.

Despite the fact that Sanders is eight years Jones' senior, I view paying him an average of $5 million over the next two seasons as much less of a risk than I do paying Jones $5 million for the next three. A walking testimonial to how an outstanding commitment to conditioning can prolong athletic careers, Sanders has managed to avoid having his production slip from age 33 to now, what is usually considered a baseball player's decline phase. Looking at it simply, Sanders has posted OPS figures of .886, .779, .912, .797, and .886 over the last five seasons. Additionally, he's hit right-handed pitching nearly as well as he has lefties over the last three seasons, making him easy to put in the lineup against anybody.

It's difficult to predict what's going to happen with a player this old, but I don't think he's a candidate to suddenly collapse and be a total hinderence to his team overnight. Either way, giving Sanders a short-term contract fits in with the direction of the ballclub and, unless it takes Baird out of the hunt for another starting pitcher, is about as good of a use for his remaining resources as there is.

I've seen a lot of teeth-gnashing over the addition of Grudzielanek, mostly because it seems to make acquiring infielder Esteban German pointless. To clear that up, it's important to understand that German was never viewed as a solution at second base, only as a candidate for the job if Baird didn't find an established, reliable guy to play the position. German still fits in with the club, only in a diminished role as a very useful utility man who draws walks and wreaks havoc on the basepaths.

The Royals non-tendered Ken Harvey on Tuesday night, hopefully ending the Kansas City portion of The Big Contact's career. I don't know why, but I still find something extremely humorous in the irony of his career groundball-to-flyball ratio (2.33), and his number of stolen bases in 271 games (3). Or maybe I just hate him because he doesn't know what happens when a hitter sees four balls before three strikes.

Finally, although I won't officially be 21 until Saturday, KRB celebrated its last significant birthday last night with friends and family. Thanks to everybody for the great gifts, especially Regina for the Royals wall clock (so I can tell when the losing will once again commence), Meagan for the awesome John Mayer poster, and most of all, The Official Parents of KRB, Don and Linda, for footing the bill at dinner. Thanks guys!

L-R: Dad, Mom, Regina, Richard, Meagan, and KRB


L-R: Regina, KRB, Joe, Richard, and Meagan

I ran across an interview with Allard Baird that was conducted by Brian McRae before the 2003 season began. Considering that was the first year of Baird's plan to rebuild the organization, it's very interesting to hear his thoughts when the Royals were at the ground floor of the project.

One of the highlights is Baird's remark that in his first two full years as general manager, he was very impatient and wanted to win immediately before realizing that a long-term plan was needed. With that, the long-standing belief of mine that the light came on for Baird in the winter of 2002 is pretty much verified.

To watch the clip, simply click here.

As you've probably heard by now, the Royals are reportedly close to acquiring Mets' right-hander Kris Benson and his incredibly-hot wife for relievers Mike MacDougal and Jeremy Affeldt.

My initial reaction to the deal was that it was silly for Allard Baird to deal his two main bargaining chips for one innings-eater, but after discussing the deal with Dave Sanford of Royals Corner, it makes more sense to me now, although I don't think Benson is anything all that desirable. Despite his outstanding 2005 season in which he served as the Royals' closer, MacDougal is still a pretty big question mark, while Affeldt is going to be a total wasted talent if he doesn't turn things around in the next couple of years.

I'll have more analysis and commentary on the deal if and when it's completed.

kcroyals.com

I'm not sure if this is a crack on Jose Lima, the Royals, or both. I'm also not sure if it was done intentionally or uninentionally. I AM, however, sure that it's one of the funniest things I've ever seen, especially since the un-edited version is designed to sell MLB apparel to the masses.

Lima Time. Believe it!

I have some brief and very random thoughts before I get some much-needed sleep, but before I get to that stuff, I’d like to congratulate good friend of KRB Dave Sanford -- better known to Royals fans as RC -- for having his site linked on ESPN.com’s Page 2 yesterday. In his very, very lengthy “Uni Watch” article about uniform alterations, Page 2 columnist Paul Lukas included a link to Royals Corner and their coverage of the Royals’ new uniforms.

If you’re a Royals fan and haven’t visited RC, you’re really missing out on some of the finest Royals coverage anywhere. Not only was his Arizona Fall League coverage incredible, Dave also works very hard to produce everything from articles to pictures to prospect reports -- all of which is premium material -- so head on over and pay him a visit.

Moving along…

I always thought it’d be awesome to work for a professional baseball team, and earlier this year, I was proven right. One of my favorite aspects of my job last spring and summer with the Springfield Cardinals was getting to have some interaction with the players and staff, limited as those times may be. You all know what I’m talking about; there’s just something way cool about ballplayers, no matter how good or bad they are.

KRB favorites Randy Leek and Juan Diaz agreed to minor-league contracts with the Cardinals earlier this month, so there’s a chance that they’ll be back at Hammons Field in 2006, Leek doing his thing with great control and Diaz doing his by popping the scoreboard with mammoth home runs. However, I’m sad to report that second baseman Aaron Herr will not return, opting to sign a minor-league deal with an invitation to spring training with the Cincinnati Reds.

Herr showed impressive power, hitting .298/.336/.498 in 426 at-bats for Springfield last year, and in my opinion played a pretty good second base. However, his strikeout-to-walk ratio was about as bad as it can get at 108-to-15, a result of poor pitch recognition skills. Despite all that, the 24-year-old son of former player Tommy Herr feasted on fastballs and hit 21 home runs, an impressive total for a middle infielder. He could have a career as a utility man someday.

Getting to the point, Aaron’s the kind of player any fan can get with because he looks playerish. He’s a guy who always swings for the fences, dives for every hard-to-reach ground ball, slides into bases headfirst and generally plays the game like it’s “supposed to be played.” The fans of whatever club he ends up with next season are sure to love him, and he’ll be missed in Springfield.


Diaz congratulates Herr
(springfieldcardinals.com)

Has a more useless article ever been written than this one?

It’s always a scary proposition for record labels when a successful recording artist completely overhauls his or her sound. Unless, of course, the artist is a sheer genius. The Official Musician of KRB, John Mayer, released his newest project on Tuesday. Try!, the first of what hopefully will be many efforts with The John Mayer Trio, has a distinct flavor of blues, jazz, funk, and soul. That’s right, the acoustic has been put in storage, and the legendary sound of electric blues guitar has replaced lighter songs like KRB favorite Why Georgia.

Folks, I’ve listened to a couple of tracks to Try! (which was recorded live, by the way), and I think it’s a must-own for anyone who loves artists like B.B. King or Buddy Guy, and a DEFINITE must-have for Mayer junkies such as myself. Mayer’s guitar playing is nothing short of scrumtrulescent and, after this and the release of Continuum (Mayer’s latest solo album due in early 2006), he will have launched himself to legitimate musical superstardom.

Did anyone else see David Letterman’s reunion with Oprah last night? Aside from the good-natured ribbing Letterman hit her with up until she came on stage, I was taken aback by Oprah’s composed presence and Dave’s gesture of escorting her to the theater at which she plays a role in The Color Purple. Really, when you think about it, we saw television history that’ll probably be on Dave’s “Greatest Moments” compilation 40 years from now.

With the internet running short on good baseball writers, Dayn Perry of FOXSports.com is a breath of fresh air. I’ve yet to read a column of his that wasn’t rational and well-reasoned, two writing traits that guys like John Kruk and Joe Morgan should look into acquiring. I’ve added a link to Perry’s archive on the sidebar.

Have I ever mentioned how much it sucks that FOX gave the heave-ho to Arrested Development?

Oh well. We all have to move on, and what better way to do that than by discussing some Royals news?

As I alluded to in Monday’s entry, the Royals are still desperately trying to acquire another outfielder or two to flank center fielder David DeJesus, and I don’t suspect they’ll leave any rock unturned. The team’s already had a meet-and-greet session with free agent Reggie Sanders and expressed an interest in Brian Giles. Sanders is sure to get offers from other clubs, and Giles reportedly re-signed with the San Diego Padres last night for $30 million.

Aside from Rondell White, Jacque Jones, and perhaps Richard Hidalgo, the second-tier of outfield free agents isn’t very attractive from either affordability or ability standpoints, so again, Royals GM Allard Baird would be wise to explore the trade market and try to spend his available resources there. Baird has made it known that he’d prefer to acquire a power-hitting corner with good on-base skills to fit in with Mark Teahen, Alex Gordon, Billy Butler, Justin Huber, and the rest of the offensive core as the organization goes forward. However, that search has been going on for more than a year now, and the odds of such a deal getting done don’t look good at this point.

As a result, the Royals are willing to be creative and look in other directions, like trying to get a speed-and-defense guy instead of a homers-and-walks player. Apparently, Royals fans agree; the long quest has given Royals fans sufficient time to express their opinions on which players the team should be targeting, and one name I see all over the message boards is that of Tampa Bay Devil Rays speedster Joey Gathright.

Gathright is reportedly available because of the Rays’ crowded outfield situation, although I have my suspicions that he might be dangled on a hook for another reason. At least seven teams have expressed interest in the 24-year-old, whose career so far can only be described as slapping-and-running at its finest:

LVL     AB     AVG     OBP     SLG     SB/ATT

MLB    255    .271    .316    .322      26/32
AAA    462    .316    .386    .390      64/85
AA     211    .355    .407    .393      22/31
A      548    .301    .388    .325      79/99

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Check out that stolen base column. Needless to say, Gathright’s greatest asset is his speed, and he’s been called the fastest man in baseball by various scouts and publications. He’s also shown passable plate discipline, but with that said, it’s surprising that he’s collected only 53 extra-base hits in his career; a player with Gathright’s speed should be legging out two or even three bases on anything hit near an outfield gap. However, it’s here where we see his biggest hurdle towards becoming a solid everyday player: He has absolutely NO power. None.

How big of a hurdle is it? Well, let’s just say that Rafael Belliard probably thinks Gathright is going to have a difficult time hitting the ball out of the infield, at least until he bulks up with age. To be fair, his track record is reminiscent of a young Luis Castillo, the poster boy of the slap-and-run club who’s carved a very nice career for himself despite slugging .356.

However, Castillo’s success as an on-base fiend has to be considered the exception, not the rule. Spindly hitters with poor bat speed can survive in minor-league environments where the stuff belonging to the pitchers is, more often than not, sub-standard. But put a Joey Gathright in the batter’s box against anybody with a good fastball and a solid secondary pitch, and he’ll be lucky to make contact.

We’re talking about a player who’s going to struggle to hit for average, struggle to get on base, and struggle greatly to hit anything but singles. Guys like this have their place in baseball as pinch-runners and defensive replacements for all-bat, no-field types, but expecting them to be everyday players is foolish at best.

While I don't want the Royals to get caught up in the free agent insanity that Joe Sheehan outlined so well in his Wednesday Prospectus Today column (subscription req.), I certainly wouldn't mind them being involved in a rumor here or there. Or if Baird would speak. Or both. Right on cue, this was in the St. Paul Pioneer Press yesterday:

A little birdie says the Kansas City Royals have offered Twins free-agent outfielder Jacque Jones a $24 million, four-year contract.

Jones, 30, was paid $5 million last season, when he hit .249 with 23 home runs and 73 runs batted in. The last-place Royals have $25 million to spend on free agents this winter.

Additionally, Bob Nigtengale of USA TODAY reported that the Royals have made an offer to Jones, only that the deal was for three years and $15 million.

I've long hated Jones and his bat toss when he knows he's hit a home run, but I'll probably learn to love it if he becomes a Royal. I don't think either deal will be considered an albatross by the time the third or fourth year of it rolls around, but Jones is now 30, so while he'd massively upgrade KC's outfield defense, he'll likely see his lauded defensive abilities begin to slowly deteriorate. And while he'd be an improvement over Matt Diaz, Aaron Guiel, and maybe even Emil Brown, the fact remains that Jones should never start against left-handed pitching. He's proven as much over his career:

           AVG     OBP     SLG     OPS
vs LHP    .227    .277    .339    .616
vs RHP    .294    .341    .488    .829

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I can't imagine how difficult it would be for a small-market team to platoon their big free-agent signee from the winter, but given Jones' total inability to hit the ball with any authority against southpaws, the Royals would be well-served to find a lefty masher to spell Jones every few days.

That player could very well be Brown, who completely demolished lefties last season to the tune of .313/.368/.538 in 182 at-bats. Jones hit .268/.348/.466 against right-handers last year, so assuming both reasonably maintain their production from a season ago and are strictly platooned, the Royals could have something like a .290/.360/.502 line of production from one outfield corner, which I think is far more than Kevin Mench could dream of providing in Kauffman Stadium.

All told, giving Jones a three- or four-year deal for $15 to $24 million makes some sense, especially considering the ridiculous market management teams are fighting right now. But if he's signed, it'll be up to the Royals to correctly utilize their new personnel.

Update: The Kansas City Star reported this morning that the Royals have made a two-year offer to Jones and refuted the Pioneer Press article stating they'd offered four years and $24 million.