Kevin's Royals Blog

Of the eight people who responded to Monday’s makeshift poll question regarding Matt Stairs returning to the club in 2006, only one expressed even the slightest bit of concern that Stairs’ presence on the roster may tempt Buddy Bell to sit a younger player in favor of the veteran (and that person didn‘t view such a thing as being the end of the world). I wasn’t at all surprised at the response, since it seems to be one that the majority of Royals fans share, me included.

Sure, it might be a little bit irritating next year when there just aren’t enough at-bats to go around for Stairs, Justin Huber, Billy Butler, Mike Sweeney, and any other slow-footed first base-type slugger the Royals may have on the roster. However, The Wonder Hamster’s career-long penchant for avoiding outs is one skill that hasn’t faded in his late 30s; he’s leading the club in on-base percentage at .374. His power, although not what it once was, is still respectable, as his isolated power figure is .181. Oh, and if I had to pay one currently-active player in baseball for his “clubhouse presence” and “veteran leadership,” I’d widdle the field down to Stairs and Brian Anderson, only to leave Jamie Moyer-lite on the side of the road.

Basically, nothing about Matt Stairs sucks (or will suck in the near future), and the Royals could’ve made far worse use of a million bucks. As long as Bell doesn’t do anything really, really, stupid, the long-term chances of the organization won’t be hindered by this one bit.

Although the Royals’ terrible pitching staffs have probably been the largest undermining factor that’s led to the club’s ten-year run of futility, the offense -- save the three-year run from 1999 to 2001 -- has been virtually non-existent as well. Over the years, the Royals have given everyday jobs to several out machines and, to make matters worse, paid many handsomely to do nothing else but drag down the team’s run-scoring outputs.

However, the “saving grace” of watching guys like Neifi Perez, Brent Mayne, and Ken Harvey kill the Royals’ chances in the late 1990s was knowing that those players were maximizing their abilities, and that a higher plane of skill wasn’t there to begin with. Sure, that isn’t the kind of saving grace anybody should like, but I think it’s easier to root for a Joe McEwing-type than a player who clearly has a ton of God-given baseball talent, but only flashes that talent once every blue moon.

I’m talking about Angel Berroa of course, a player who is damned close to becoming The Official Whipping Boy of KRB. Berroa’s "contributed" to the Royals’ chances by hitting .263, posting a .665 OPS, an on-base percentage of .300, and making the ninth-most outs of any player in the American League with 398. All that when combined with the knowledge that Berroa’s regressed for the second year in a row when his production should be leveling off would make any self-respecting baseball fan wonder why I’d label Berroa as having "a ton of God-given baseball talent" and be justified in the thought.

The fact of the matter is that Berroa -- at times varied and far in-between -- has been simply electric on the field, flashing incredible home run distances for his size, hard-hit liners to the gaps, above-average speed, and an incredible throwing arm and amazing range at shortstop. The trouble is that he can’t seem to get out of his own way, especially from an offensive standpoint. The fact that his plate discipline is downright terrible is frustrating enough, but to make matters worse, this Kansas City Star article by Bob Dutton shows that Angel has the "You can’t walk off the island" hitting mindset:

Berroa ended a streak of 173 consecutive plate appearances without an unintentional walk Friday night by coaxing one in the third inning from Detroit reliever Franklyn German.

It’s not likely to become a trend. Berroa has no intention of reining in his aggressive hitting approach.

"That’s me," he said. "You’re never going to see me walk a lot. Because there are times, if I’m trying to get a walk, I’ll get good pitches and not swing. That’s not good."

Welcome to the mind of a hitter who never goes to the plate with even a semblance of a plan, thinking that NOT swinging the bat 100 percent of the time is a horrible, horrible thing. Since the beginning of the 2004 season, club officials have been trying to express to him that swinging at sliders in the dirt is bad, but Berroa’s obviously refused to listen. He’s also totally oblivious to just how horrible of a season (and career) he’s having, evidenced by his fear of letting hittable pitches go by.

Buddy Bell’s take on Berroa’s swing-happy ways wasn’t particularly encouraging either:

"I love plate discipline and on-base percentage," manager Buddy Bell said, "but I just think if you stay aggressive — if you’re always ready to hit — then you’ll get on base. You’ll recognize pitches that aren’t strikes and learn to take those pitches.

"You don’t want anyone, but especially Angel, to go up there predetermined that you’re going to wait to see so many pitches. You’ve got to stay aggressive. I’m not worried about Angel. He’s going to be fine."

Bell might not be worried, but I am. Not only about Berroa, but Buddy as well. When the Royals went searching for a manager, one criteria I placed on the new and then-unknown skipper was having a cohesion with Allard Baird on all things baseball-related. It appears they only went halfway. In other words, Bell may "love" plate discipline and on-base percentage -- two things Baird has placed an emphasis on -- but he clearly doesn’t understand either. And how much can a person love something he doesn’t understand?

Plate discipline is a skill, and it has absolutely nothing to do with planning to see any number of pitches before a plate appearance. The best hitters in baseball typically draw a lot of walks, but it isn’t because they go to the plate determined to see four, five, or six pitches. On the contrary, the most disciplined hitters of this era -- Jim Thome, Manny Ramirez, Barry Bonds, and Albert Pujols come to mind -- run deep counts not only because they refuse to swing at pitches out of the strike zone, but also because they refuse to swing at a pitch they can‘t do anything with, like a well-thrown curveball on the outside corner. More than anything, those players have great pitch recognition skills and a great deal of mental discipline at home plate.

Plate discipline is a skill that players either have or don’t have, much like players either have or don’t have home run power. Berroa clearly doesn’t have that skill, and I wouldn’t be at all surprised if Baird tries to dump him and his bloated salary on somebody this winter. Andres Blanco -- Berroa’s likely successor if his switch to second base isn't viewed as permanent -- can’t hit either, but at least he’ll draw a walk every now and then. And at this point, I’d kill to see the shortstop of the Kansas City Royals show signs of intelligence at home plate.

Speaking of aggravating ballplayers (and managers), Bell still hasn’t gotten the memo on Terrence Long:

"But at the same time, you don’t just want to give up the ship. And that, quite frankly, is why Terrence is playing. He’s been our best player for the last month. He gives us a better chance to win.

To his credit, Long has somehow avoided sucking this month, hitting .308/.357/.462 in 39 September at-bats. Still, anybody who thinks that T-Long gives a team "a better chance to win" than Chip Ambres, Matt Diaz, or Aaron Guiel has lost all grip on reality.

On a non-baseball note, the Official Fantasy Girl of KRB, Carrie Underwood, is featured in three commercials for Hershey's candy bars that can be viewed by clicking here and selecting "TV Spots."

Sure, the ads are more than a little bit hokey and beneath her angelic aura, but none of that seems to matter when Carrie smiles.

Beauty, thy name is Underwood.

I'd like to hear what you all think of the Royals re-signing Matt Stairs for one more season at $1.35 million. Is the risk of Stairs playing a lot next year too high since his presence could disrupt the development and playing time of guys like Justin Huber and Billy Butler, or are his leadership qualities and ability to avoid outs worth the money no matter what?

I'm not sure if it's a good idea to have any sort of a tie with the Kansas City Royals right now, but if I have to have one, I'm glad that it's the official television show of the Royals (and soon to be the official television show of this blog), Arrested Development. If you've never seen it before, AD is easily the most hilarious and brilliant comedy show since Seinfeld left the airwaves seven years ago.

I got hooked after watching the entire first season on DVD, and can hardly wait until 1) the new season debuts on September 19 and 2) Season Two is released on DVD. Ron Howard -- the show's executive producer -- has a laundry list of directoral successes in Hollywood, but when it's all said and done, I think AD is going to be the most popular project he's ever been associated with.

If you haven't become an Arrested addict like me, I'd highly recommend giving it a try. At the very least, it's a good way to blow off some steam after watching Joe McEwing and Denny Hocking make about a third of your favorite team's outs in a game.

Speaking of that "favorite team," on to the Royals notes we go:

Because he walked five batters in six innings, J.P. Howell's start against the White Sox wasn't his most efficient outing since being recalled from Triple-A Omaha on August 27, but he only allowed two hits and two earned runs against the Southsiders, so I'm willing to call it his best performance since he overmatched the Diamondbacks in his Major League debut.

For the year, Howell has a ghastly 6.63 ERA and an even-more unsightly 39-to-30 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 54.1 innings of work. Additionally, his control wasn't much better in the minor leagues, as he walked 48 in 101.2 innings pitched. Howell's minor-league ERA was exceptional (2.84) because he also picked up 100 strikeouts, an abnormally-solid rate for a left-hander who rarely tops 90 mph with his fastball.

As it is with the rest of the young players the Royals are going to be counting on to help produce a winner in a couple of seasons, the imperative issue with J.P. isn't what his year-end numbers look like, it's if he took positive strides towards becoming a solid big-league pitcher. In the span of four starts -- from the last one he made with the Royals on his first tour of duty to now -- Howell has shown that he's learning and getting better, even if just by a marginal and slow rate:

                      IP     SO/9     BB/9     H/9     ERA
6/11 Thru 7/16        31.1   5.21     5.50     11.57   7.81
7/21 Thru Present     24.0   7.88     4.13     6.00    4.88

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As you can see, he's zoomed his strikeout north by about 51 percent, cut his walks by about 16 percent, and allowed 48 percent fewer hits. His penchant for getting groundball outs is a plus too, as he's killed ants at a 69 percent clip for the Royals. Anyway, improvement over a 24-inning stretch is a very small sample size and, as a result, may be an aberration. For instance, Howell's control still needs a lot of work if he wants to have success in the long-term. It's extremely difficult for any pitcher -- much less a lefty -- to be "effectively wild" as they say, and Howell doesn't have as good of stuff as the one southpaw who pulled it off, Al Leiter, did in his heyday.

The fact of the matter is that J.P. probably shouldn't have been called up before September 1. More importantly, he probably shouldn't have been thrown into the starting rotation right away, and instead been allowed a breaking-in period comprised of short relief stints. However, since this is the hand he (and we) have been dealt by the Royals' decision-makers, I'll take the slight improvement he's shown and run with it. As long as the Royals don't ruin him with high pitch counts and mind games, Howell should fit nicely in the middle of the starting rotation.

Howell's six-inning two-hitter was cashed into a win for the young lefty because once again, the bullpen trio of Andrew Sisco, Ambiorix Burgos, and Mike MacDougal (Sisburmac) blew away the opposition with three hitless, shutout frames. With the hope that I don't jinx anything (*KNOCK ON WOOD*), here are the stat lines for those three relievers:

              IP     SO     BB     H     HR     ERA
Sisco         68.1   69     39     55    4      2.50
Burgos        53.2   62     23     47    6      3.59
MacDougal     62.0   66     23     60    6      3.63
====================================================
TOTAL         184.0  197    85     162   16     3.17

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Okay, so Sisburmac could stand to throw a few more strikes every now and then (largely influenced by Sisco's extremely high walk rate), but other than that, those are some eye-popping figures that are only outdone by the way Sisburmac has achieved them: reaching back and flaming guys with mid-90s heat.

Despite dubbing the three of them "the second coming of The Nasty Boys" in early June, I acknkowledge that the possibility of a short-lived reign exists. I still don't trust that MacDougal will make throwing strikes a habit past this season. Despite showing marked improvement in the second half, Burgos has already experienced shoulder tendinitis and had to go on a rehab assignment in June. Lastly, Sisco's max-effort pitching style has me worried that an arm injury may be just around the corner for him, too.

Of course, I'd like to see Burgos and Sisco be given the opportunity to start ballgames again, but that's just me. The Royals don't want to mess with a good thing because these guys have shortened ballgames to six innings, and that has immense value.

I can't figure out why, but I found this and this to be really funny. I think it's the screen names.

Despite being relatively productive in his first 89 at-bats, Chip Ambres hasn't played in a game since Wednesday and hasn't had an at-bat since September 1. Meanwhile, his position -- left field -- has been filled by out machine Terrence Long. I thought I made it painfully clear last Monday that Long can't play baseball very well, but apparently, it wasn't painfully clear enough to reach Allard Baird and the front office.

Look, I know that it's September and with the Royals being helplessly out of the pennant race since May, it isn't a life-and-death matter that Long be benched and Ambres and/or Matt Diaz be given his plate appearances. However, the Royals need to get a better idea of what they have in those two younger players, and that isn't going to happen with pinch-hitting appearances and defensive substitutions.

I like what Baird's done in the last two or three years, but when he says that a veteran won't block a rookie's playing time and his manager does the exact opposite, that's very irritating. It's time for Buddy Bell to sit Long, McEwing, and Hocking so Ambres, Mark Teahen, and Andres Blanco can play.

Speaking of veteran players starting when they shouldn't be, Dave Sanford of Royals Corner has come up with a clever way to spell Guiel's first name: AAAAron.

I sure hope the Mets think acquiring Kris Benson was worth giving up Justin Huber, because that Australian masher might be something after all.

The second-best hitting prospect in the system, Huber had the highest batting average (.343), on-base percentage (.432), and slugging percentage (.570) in the Double-A Texas League this year. He hasn't hit in the big leagues yet, but he's going to, and he's going to have a 25-man roster spot to lose coming into Spring Training 2006.

While I'm working on an article detailing the three players the Royals called to the Major Leagues before yesterday's game against the White Sox, here's a prospect report I put together about a month ago on one of the finest pitching prospects in baseball, the Cardinals' Anthony Reyes.

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As a general rule, I don’t evaluate pitching prospects after seeing them play their game at the highest level just once; there are far too many ways for any young pitcher to fail in the major or high minor leagues. Some have above-average ability like Jason Bere, but never figure out how to consistently throw the ball over the plate. Former Kansas City Royal Jose Rosado looked like he was on his way to a successful career, but underwent two shoulder surgeries and didn’t pitch again after the 2000 season. Those guys were lucky compared to Brien Taylor, the first overall pick of the Yankees in the 1991 Amateur Draft. Taylor blew out his arm in the minor leagues and never threw one pitch at Yankee Stadium. In fact, the attrition rate in young starting pitchers is so high, Baseball Prospectus now warns its readers that the law of TINSTAAPP (There Is No Such Thing As A Pitching Prospect) should be taken into consideration before a fan gets excited about any 21-year-old fireballer who’s mowing down hitters in the Texas League.

One of the basic principles of TINSTAAPP is that pitching injuries happen with or without negligent behavior on the behalf of a manager or, in other cases, the pitcher himself. Whipping one’s arm forward 100-120 times at maximum effort every five days is not a natural (or healthy) motion by itself, and said arm doesn’t really need the "assistance" of overwork, bad mechanics, poor conditioning, or anything else. As a result, young pitchers can be rapidly ascending to the big leagues one minute but be rapidly raced to the operating table the next. But while TINSTAAPP is thoroughly ingrained in my mind, preventing me from making any brash statements about hurlers who can’t yet purchase alcohol (Rick Ankiel, anyone?), I’m going to buck that trend for one night to discuss Anthony Reyes, the St. Louis Cardinals’ pitcher who made his major league debut in early August against the Milwaukee Brewers -- and may be the best prospect you’ve never heard of.

A product of the University of Southern California, Reyes -- who pitched in the shadow of Chicago Cubs star Mark Prior in 2000 and 2001 -- had a very run-of-the-mill college career, fighting repeated elbow problems and doing little that would lead anybody to believe that he’d be a top prospect in the coming years. In 312.1 innings of work, Reyes allowed 328 hits and posted a 3.89 ERA. His strikeout-to-walk ratio was a very-solid 2.77-to-1, but he survived on good control (2.74 walks per nine innings pitched) and created his own outs only adequately, averaging just 7.58 strikeouts per nine innings pitched. However, the Cardinals saw enough ability in the right-hander to make him their 15th-round selection in the 2003 Amateur Draft, giving Reyes the thrill of hearing his name called in the draft for the second year in a row (the Tigers chose him in the 13th round a year earlier, but didn‘t sign him).

Because of Reyes’ persistent elbow pain, the Cardinals shut him down for the remainder of the 2003 season. The rest the kid received proved to be just what the doctor ordered. In 2004, he made his pro debut at Single-A Palm Beach, posting this line:

IP     SO     BB     ERA
36.2   38     7      4.66

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While his ERA continued to be unimpressive and his hit rate remained high, Reyes made quantum leaps forward in improving his control and missing bats. After seven starts, the Cardinals thought so much of his performance and mental makeup that they promoted him to Double-A, skipping the 6-2, 215-pound Reyes over a level of competition. In some cases, that can be a recipe for disaster, but Reyes took full advantage of the opportunity as is detailed below:

IP     SO     BB     ERA
74.1   102    13     2.91

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That’s about as close to a perfect pitching line as you’re going to find, not counting Pedro Martinez’s absurd 2000 with the Boston Red Sox. For the first time in his professional and amateur career, Reyes allowed less than one hit per inning pitched. He also lowered his home run rate (0.36 per nine innings pitched), his walk rate (1.58 per nine innings pitched) and raised his strikeout rate to an absurd 12.35 per nine innings pitched. It was at that point prospect mavens like Baseball America began to take notice, because any pitcher who picks up 46 percent of his outs via the strikeout deserves to be talked about.

In 2005, the Cardinals pushed Reyes up to Triple-A Memphis, disappointing this Springfield Cardinals fan who was hoping to catch a glimpse of the organization’s top prospect at Hammons Field. I’m sure any minor league player would want to take the field at Springfield’s $32 million baseball facility, but by the looks of it, Reyes didn’t feel too slighted by being assigned to the Redbirds’ roster:

IP     SO     BB     ERA
128.2  136    34     3.64

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Despite nearly throwing a no-hitter for Memphis this year, there was no doubt some regression in Reyes’ performance from his amazing stint at Tennessee, but since it’s downright impossible for anybody to be that good in consecutive seasons, I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt. His ERA, walk, strikeout, home run, and hit rates all remained very encouraging and did nothing to hurt his Top Prospect label.

However, statistical performance can only tell a person so much about how much talent a baseball player has in his body. Needless to say, after hearing that Reyes would be called up to start against the Brewers, I made sure to plop down in front of the TV to watch his debut. Admittedly, I came into my amateur scouting experience with some preconceived notions.

First, I assumed Reyes was Latin American. I was very wrong, as evidenced by this picture. Second, I was expecting to see a smallish pitcher with a marginal fastball who got by on changing speeds and hitting his spots. Once again, I couldn’t have been more incorrect, although you couldn’t tell it from Anthony’s delivery. Using mechanics that are darned near perfect (this and his good mound balance will help him stay healthy), Reyes consistently tossed 93-mph fastballs all night long, topping out at 96. I’d describe the velocity on his heater as “easy gas,” meaning it doesn’t really look like he’s trying to throw so hard. Mariano Rivera, John Smoltz, and Royals rookie right-hander Ambiorix Burgos have also been blessed with this trait. Everyone knows the exploits of Rivera and Smoltz, but Burgos has burst onto the scene with 58 strikeouts in his first 50 big league innings.

Mixing a well above-average changeup with his fastball (his breaking pitch wasn't working that night), Reyes -- who irons the bill of his cap -- tossed 6.1 innings of two-hit, two-run baseball, and made only one mistake all night long: a mistake pitch that shortstop Bill Hall hit a long, long ways to left field. Conversely, Reyes completely dominated Hall’s double-play partner Rickie Weeks, striking him out twice.

After the game, Reyes was shipped right back to Memphis where he’ll complete his apprenticeship. Despite the fact that not many baseball fans know who he is or just how talented he is right now, Anthony will definitely change his anonymous persona in the future. It’s either that, or adopting a nickname.

How does Anthony “Don’t Call Me Al” Reyes sound?

Remember this?

+ =

It's been about five months since KRB's campaign to FREE CALVIN PICKERING! proved to be a winner. While half of our crusade was vindicated by way of Ken Harvey spending his entire season at Triple-A Omaha, the other -- Calvin Pickering making the 25-man roster -- was a smashing success.

For two weeks.

On April 23, the Royals optioned Pickering to Omaha which, judging by his paltry .148/.226/.259, was the only move to make. The problem was that the Royals gave the big man only 27 at-bats to prove his worth, which is roughly seven games worth of plate appearances.

I think Allard Baird is a pretty intelligent man and GM, but he can't tell me that what he saw over a two-week stretch at the beginning of the season was solid-enough evidence against Pickering to send him back to the minor leagues. Unless he was doing terrible things like hiding the clubhouse remote control from the rest of his teammates, terrorizing the batboy, or trying to eat Mark Teahen, there was absolutely NO reason for a demotion. Those 27 at-bats could've been nothing more than a cold streak that was magnified because it happened at the beginning of the year when other numbers weren't around to mask it.

Fast-forward to September 6 and Pickering, after getting off to a very slow start, heated up during the summer months and started to mash minor league pitching once again, finishing with this line:

AB     AVG     OBP     SLG     OPS
331   .275    .385    .532    .917

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Sure, it's possible that Pickering is nothing more than a tweener and can't hit Major League pitching despite being one of the most feared offensive players in the bus leagues. But although that may be the reality, my problem is that the Royals had enough patience to start Joe McEwing at first base eight times, but had absolutely no desire to give Pickering another chance. McEwing, by the way, has given the Royals a whopping .574 OPS in 158 at-bats and has the 11th-lowest VORP (-6.3) in the American League.

People are always going to question Pick's abilities as a baseball player because of his shape and penchant for striking out, but there's no question that he's earned another opportunity to play at the highest level. I'll be pulling for him no matter what, but sadly, it appears that an opportunity will only happen with a more visionary club like the A's, Red Sox, or White Sox. Calvin Pickering can hit, and still must be freed.

Last Wednesday, I made an attempt at making sense of Zack Greinke's bizzarely-horrible 2005 season, explaining that he's been extremely hit-unlucky this year. However, that still doesn't tell the whole story, which is why I love baseball as much as I do: there are always questions to be answered.

In the Greinke starts that I've been able to watch this year, one theme that's seemed to be a constant is that Zack's had a real hard time finishing off innings. In other words, it's seemed to me that he's had no problem getting the first out of the inning, but has had to really fight to get the second and final outs. While messing around with MLB.com's fantastic statistics engine, my feeling was verified:

    
2005
Outs    IP     ERA    SO    BB    
0       54.2   2.63   35    7
1       52.1   7.74   28    17
2       46.0   8.80   33    25

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An 8.80 ERA with two outs in any inning? Wow. So, did he have the same problem last year?

2004    
Outs    IP     ERA    SO    BB    
0       49.2   3.62   43    4
1       50.1   3.93   23    7
2       44.2   4.43   34    15

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It should be noted that almost any pitcher's ERA rises as the number of outs increase because as the inning gets deeper, hitters reach base, and the base hits that are given up score runs. That's what happened to Greinke in his rookie year. However, what's happened to him in 2005 -- well, it simply fits with the rest of what's happened to him in 2005.

The question is why, although at this point all we can do is present unverifiable theories. Greinke's fall from being a Cy Young-caliber pitcher with nobody out to being a Cy Yuck-caliber pitcher with one and two out is disturbing. Not only has he allowed an inordinate number of runs with two outs especially, but his control has been terrible as well. He could be picking at the strike zone because of all the baserunners he's had to deal with, but it's definitely possible that he's suffered from a gradual loss of focus as an inning wears on, a trait that Greinke's critics have frequently pointed to as a cause for concern.

If there are any other Zack Greinke theories out there (and I know there are), fire up the Comments machine and discuss away! We'll solve the problems, whatever they are. Guy Hansen, eat your heart out.

Ever since the Royals traded Johnny Damon to the Oakland A’s before the 2001 season, the left field position has been a massive black hole at Kauffman Stadium. Since that time, the organization has shuffled through the likes of failed prospects like Dee Brown, Mark Quinn, Byron Gettis, and Alexis Gomez and washed-up veterans such as Chuck Knoblauch and David McCarty. They even allowed Ken Harvey to play out there for 30 interleague innings in 2004. When Raul Ibanez and his lifetime .803 OPS is without question your organization’s finest left fielder of the last five years, well, you have quite a bit of work to do.

This season, the bulk of the playing time to David DeJesus’ right has gone to Terrence Long, who has been absolutely terrible this year:

     AB     AVG     OBP     SLG     
     377   .276    .313    .374

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If you think that’s bad, consider this: Terrence has actually been marginally productive against right-handed pitchers, hitting .285/.325/.410 in 288 at-bats. In 85 at-bats against lefties, however, Long has managed only a .235/.256/.247, good for an isolated power (slugging percentage minus batting average) figure of .012. That’s right. Heading into the last full month of the season, Long didn’t have one 2005 extra-base hit against a left-hander until Friday night, when he doubled off of Kenny Rogers. That even underperforms the modest expectations I set for him after he was acquired for Darrell May in early November.

Thankfully, T-Long’s horrid production pretty much assures that he won’t be back with the Royals next year, leaving his corner outfield spot wide open for the 2006 season. Barring a trade or a free agent acquisition (friend of KRB David Sanford did a write-up on that topic at Royals Corner), it looks like next spring’s competition for the opening day left field job will be between two guys who’re with the Royals right now, Matt Diaz and Chip Ambres, and one who’ll probably be up when Double-A Wichita’s season ends (Shane Costa). The loser (or losers) of the battle would probably stay on the 25-man roster in a backup role.

The “winner,” however, wouldn’t be much more than a winner by default. I have big questions about Diaz’s plate discipline and hitting mechanics, and Ambres’ and Costa’s power-hitting abilities. All three players have been productive enough in the minor leagues to foreshadow careers as fourth outfielders, but unless one or more of them breaks out and starts hitting the ball hard consistently, not one player out of that trio will be a long-term answer to the left field hole.

With all that said, the Royals have a guy in Double-A right now who, after getting off to a slow start at that level, has demolished Texas League pitching. And at some point in 2006, Billy Butler will permanently displace whoever’s playing left field (unless Allard Baird finds a way to acquire Adam Dunn, which would be awesome).


Billy Butler

Butler, the 14th overall pick in the 2004 draft, is quickly becoming one of the finest hitting prospects in all of baseball. In a sense, that’s probably a surprise to a few people who viewed Butler more as a signability pick than the best player available at that spot. However, none of those people were with the Royals’ draft team, as the organization believed that the Florida native was the best hitter left on the board, and that his willingness to sign quickly was just a bonus. Thankfully, the Royals were right, and Butler’s been a “signability guy” like Joe Mauer was for the Twins.

The proof’s in the production. After signing with the Royals, Butler was sent to low Single-A Idaho Falls, began this season at high Single-A High Desert, and was promoted to Double-A Wichita this summer. I’m generally not one to emphasize batting average as a good metric to evaluate a hitter, but while looking at Butler’s hitting lines at each of those three stops, pay particular attention to the average column and try to not be amazed:

                 AB      AVG     OBP     SLG     OPS
Idaho Falls      260    .373    .488    .596     1.084
High Desert      379    .348    .419    .636     1.055
Wichita          109    .312    .353    .523     .876

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Butler's struggled since moving from High Desert to Wichita -- which is a VERY big jump -- but all told, he's hit .352 with a .606 slugging percentage in his pro career. Sure, you have to account for the extreme hitters’ environments Butler’s played in at each of the three levels, but a guy hitting .352 in the first 748 at-bats of his career is outstanding anywhere, especially when you consider that Butler has supplemented his high averages with good plate discipline (0.14 walks per at-bat) and great extra-base hit ability (.254 isolated power).

Those lines would be great for anybody, but when you consider that Butler won’t turn 20 until April 18 of next year, they become even greater and more encouraging for his future as a ballplayer. Many of the truly great players in baseball history have made it to the majors at very young ages, most well before their 25th birthdays.

As if that wasn’t awesome enough, Butler’s statistical lines aren’t the only thing that portray him as a future great power hitter in baseball. After looking at this video from MLB.com and this video from CalLeaguers.com, it’s clear that Butler’s hitting mechanics are outstanding. He’s balanced throughout, has his hands in the perfect hitting position just before he swings, and has a high and powerful follow-through. It doesn't look like he's even trying.

Still, none of that’s to say that there aren’t concerns. Butler still strikes out a little bit too much for my liking, taking or swinging through strike three in about 22 percent of his career at-bats. He’s also going to have to continue to work in left field and improve defensively so he doesn’t have to become a full-time designated hitter at a very young age.

At this point, those are the only two aspects of his game that I’d like to see him improve upon. He’s well on his way towards becoming part of a well above-average offense in Kansas City that’ll also include DeJesus, Justin Huber, Alex Gordon, Mark Teahen, and Mike Sweeney.

Quick Thoughts

The Springfield Cardinals season ended yesterday with an 18-9 loss to the Arkansas Travelers. The game (which was essentially over after the top of the first inning) featured a lot of very interesting players who'll be in the Major Leagues before long:

>> Arkansas' double-play combo of Erick Aybar and Howie Kendrick was a LOT of fun to watch. The Travs turned four twin killings, and Aybar and Kendrick were in the thick of each of 'em. On the offensive side of things, Aybar went 1-4, but drew two walks and stole three bases. Kendrick was on base three times with two singles and a double.

>> Springfield starter and 2004 first-round pick Chris Lambert lasted two-thirds of an inning, allowing six runs on three hits. Lambert had a very disappointing season at the Double-A level, finishing 3-8 with a 6.35 ERA.

>> Remember Rick Ankiel? He started in right field yesterday and finished his season with a bang, hitting two home runs (the first of which being a long 380-foot shot to right), drawing a walk, and scoring three times to lead the Springfield offense. Rick still swings like a pitcher, but I think he has enough ability to hold down a backup outfielder role for St. Louis. In 136 Double-A at-bats, Ankiel hit .243 with a .515 slugging percentage.

>> While we're on the subject of retreads and reclamation projects, former Cardinals top prospect Alan Benes threw two innings of scoreless ball in mop-up duty.

Before the game, Hammons Field was named Ballpark of the Year by Baseballparks.com. The reason?


springfieldcardinals.com


springfieldcardinals.com

I never dreamed a city the size of Springfield, Mo. would have something like that, but we do, and I'm damn proud of it.

Yesterday's 17-8 Royals win over the Texas Rangers was good to see, but also featured two of the most frustrating KC players in recent memory: Jeremy Affeldt and Angel Berroa. Both guys have incredible ability that shows itself every once in awhile (Berroa's home run yesterday), but on the flip side, both guys also don't have the slightest clue how to play baseball (Affeldt yesterday).

If Baird decides to move Affeldt this winter, I really hope he can work out a deal with the Braves. Under Rockin' Leo Mazzone's tutilage, Affeldt may have a long career yet as a Mike Remlinger-type.

If you look at the upper-righthand corner of KRB, you'll see that I've added a link to the Red Cross's Hurricane Relief Fund. The devastation down in Louisiana, Mississippi, and other states in the South is simply horrific, and they need our help. If you can give $20, great. If you can't give $20, give $10. If you can't give $10, give $5. If you can't give $5, give $1. And if you can't give $1, volunteering your extra time is a great way to pitch in.

I'm working on a Billy Butler article that'll be up for your consumption, criticism, and deconstruction tomorrow morning.

In the meantime, I'd like to point you to The Joe House Dominion, a politically-focused Geocities site that my roommate started a couple of weeks ago. I don't particularly like politics -- opting instead to write about more mind-numbing topics like a 40-games-under-.500 baseball team and prostate examinations at an athletic event -- but Joe's really proud of his creation and is out there looking for readers, so take a moment, give it a chance, and send him some feedback.

In so many different ways, it’s the difficult moments of our lives that directly cause us to slow down, stop, and take a much closer look at our lives. Think about it. We’ve all had to deal with the death of a loved one at one point or another which, in many cases, is a good reason to think if we’re really living life to its fullest extent. Additionally, earning a poor grade in a class or two in high school and/or college is a wakeup call of the worst variety, giving us doubts as to whether or not we worked as hard as possible that semester. And although it doesn’t hold a candle to the significance of personal loss and failing, there’s rooting for a down-and-out baseball team.

Consider fans of the Kansas City Royals down-and-outed to an infinite degree.

19 consecutive losses will tend to do that to a fan base, especially when the rest of the baseball world keeps on keeping‘ on. Consider this: since the Royals’ last win before The Streak started (on July 27 -- a victory in extra innings over the division-leading White Sox) Ordinary Outfielder Randy Winn hit for the cycle. Ordinary Oriole Rafael Palmeiro proved to be anything but, testing positive for a steroid that’s sometimes used to sedate horses. Accordingly, he had to be suspended for ten days under baseball’s horse tranquilizer policy. Oh yeah, Neifi Perez even drew not one, not two, but three walks in that time span. Yes, the strange-but-true machine had been fired up in that three week-span, spitting out occurrences a Los Angeles Clippers playoff run think are random.

However, that list of occurrences didn’t include a Royals victory, meaning the Blue Wave became the most popular punch line to sports jokes since the 1996 New York Jets went 1-15. Now, nobody likes to be the butt of a joke, but Royals fans are an extreme case. Let’s face it: we’re impatient, always wildly wishing for a winner. And over the last ten years of losing baseball, the Royals have undoubtedly (and understandably) lost fans who‘d had enough, deciding they‘d maximized their emotional quota by cheering for what has been, to be blunt, a decade-long lost cause.

Then there’s Jeff Haught, a man who’d followed the Royals closely for 32 years before turning in his fan card due to this three-week long streak of winless baseball. You’ve probably heard of Haught, who’s been featured in an article by the Kansas City Star’s Joe Posnanski and on David Pinto’s outstanding BaseballMusings.com. However, Haught didn’t just throw his hands up, declare himself finished with the Royals, and spend more time in other areas of his life. Instead, he actually wrote this letter to the other 29 teams in baseball, offering his services as a fan:

I was, until 10 PM last night, a Royals fan. I had been for 32 years. I moved to Kansas City, in part, to be near the team that I love. Now that love has been destroyed, from the strike year of '94 until now, only one Royals team has been worth following and that was the 2003 team that barely finished above .500. I simply cannot be a fan of a team that can't catch a flyball, field a grounder or win a game that they were in complete control of.

I have a wife that went to her first baseball game with me and her favorite player, Tony Graffanino, now plays for the Red Sox. My Royals can't even keep around a fan favorite that costs $2m! I also have twin girls that are 5 months old. They will be brought up in a baseball family, watching 3 or 4 games a week and attending 1 or 2 a month. My groom's cake even had a Royals logo on it.

I have probably spent $10,000 over the years on R's tickets, souvenirs, hot dogs, nachos and pretzels. I and my family won't give the R's any more of my money.

I'm sending this letter to each and every other major league team. I am setting up an auction for my loyalty. In return for whatever gifts you send me, you will have my and my family's loyalty for the next 10 years with a mutual option for the next 10. This means that I will wear your gear, learn your players, support your team and travel to see your team play.

This could be worth several thousand dollars to you.

Just send an email to jbpirate91@yahoo.com with your offer. I will only accept the highest bidder. You will only have to send the merchandise if I choose you. I will be making a decision on August 24 so please respond by then.

I’m not sure why, but even looking at that letter irritates me. Maybe it’s because the premise -- that any Major League Baseball team would pay a guy money to root for their organization -- is entirely ridiculous. Perhaps it’s the whining about a utility man making seven figures being traded for two young, inexpensive, and potentially useful players in Chip Ambres and Juan Cedeno.

Or maybe it’s because of a deeper reason. You see, Jeff Haught has been praised for auctioning off his "services" as a fan. To an extent, it’s understandable, because he’s doing what we all have wanted to do at various points since 1995 -- quit and go root for somebody else. But to me, that’s an easy way out. Sure, times have been extremely tough on Royals fans for a very long time, but is that any reason for somebody to publicly throw both hands in the air and wave the white flag? I don’t think so.

Anybody who becomes so attached to a sports team that they feel compelled to do something like this needs to take a step back and not live through the games with the players. For example, understanding that Mark Teahen -- not me -- just made that throwing error has enabled me to live a happier life because I don’t live and die with the result of every last game. Additionally, going through the tough times only makes the good times sweeter. And while I think myself, David Sanford, and Daniel Smith are alone on this, the good times should start to roll in KC by 2007.

My point is that fans should love their team the same way they do (or would) love their kids: unconditionally, and not because they’re good all the time. I hope however much money Jeff Haught made off of his childish auction is worth not seeing the Royals go to the playoffs in two or three years. Why? Because this fan won’t welcome him back to the fraternity. I can only hope the Royals follow my lead.

Two Other Things...

The Royals are expected to make Justin Huber one of their September call-ups today. Huber spent most of the season at Double-A Wichita, hitting .343/.432/.570 before being moved up to Triple-A Omaha in the past month, where he recovered from a very slow start to hit .273/.370/.545 in 110 at-bats.

I don't think Huber's going to be any kind of a big-time power hitter, but he's going to get on base a lot and hit a ton of mistake pitches into the gaps of all fields. Beats the hell out of Joe McEwing playing first base, if you ask me.

There are only four games left in what's been a more-than-successful Springfield Cardinals season, and I've had one hell of a good time working at Hammons Field all summer. I've met some cool people, learned how to deal with the public, and have generally enjoyed being a member of an MLB organization.

Most of the promotions -- baseball bats, caps, lunchboxes, etc. -- have been really cool as well, but I have a sneaky suspicion that this one isn't going to be anybody's favorite:

Thursday, September 1 - In honor of Men's Health Month, CoxHealth is providing free prostate cancer screenings for all men over the age of 45 in the first aid room located on the concourse

Earlier this season, the Cardinals heavily promoted "Great Southern Bank Money Drop Day," a post-game event at which kids were allowed on the field and a helicopter would drop $5,000 worth of Cardinals Dollars (gift certificates) onto the crowd. The end result was -- as a friend of mine who was at the game told me -- mass chaos, crying children, and cuts, scrapes, and bruises galore. Oh yeah, and the helicopter was something like 30 feet off the ground when it dropped the money onto the field. Basically, the promotion was inevitably going to be a failure (and that's if it went well).

I didn't think I'd ever see a worse promotional idea than that, but prostate cancer screenings? I've been proven wrong. I mean, who the hell is going to go to tomorrow night's game thinking, "Gosh, I haven't had my prostate checked in awhile. Why not get the ol' latex glove treatment at the ballpark before I take in a minor league baseball game?"

A quick note to the management team of the Cardinals: promotions are supposed to bring people to the park, not make them run away screaming because that night's giveaway is Grab Your Ankles night.

Prostate cancer is serious, serious business not to be taken lightly, but being checked for it at a ballpark is just plain creepy. Fellas, try to steer clear of the First Aid Room for awhile.