Kevin's Royals Blog

Prior to last night's rain-shortened victory over the Devil Rays, Royals GM Allard Baird held a news conference to discuss the search to find the next Royals manager, what qualities that individual will need to have to understand the team's direction, and where the Royals stand in general as an organization. Color me geeky, but it was probably the most captivating Royals press conference I've seen in a long time. How captivating was it? Well, I think an all-Catherine Bell Girls Gone Wild would've only been slightly more interesting to me than Baird's remarks were.

Without me going into a lot of detail on what exactly was said, Baird continued to make the point that there is no timetable on finding a new skipper, saying that placing a one- or two-week deadline would be counterproductive. It's imperative that they find the right man for the job, or the one guy who's willing to understand the direction of the club. He also spent time addressing the negative press the organization's received this year, in essence saying that the national media just doesn't have the slightest clue of what's actually happening behind the scenes in Kansas City.

While I've admired Baird's work for a very long time, I now admire the man who does the work not only because of what I saw and heard him say to the Kansas City media, but how he said those things. Seriously, to those of you who were lucky enough to watch it, can there really be any argument that this guy is one of the elite individuals in all of sports? Allard has every trait a role model should have, including but not limited to a strong work ethic, confidence, honesty, determination, faith, and a clear plan of attack for how he's going to succeed in his job. The Royals don't need to spend any time finding the right man for the general manager's job, because Allard is that man.

Moving right along...

Jose Lima had another very rough outing, allowing five earned runs in 5.1 innings of work. But perhaps more disturbing than his inability to protect a 5-0 lead is the four walks he allowed, furthering my point that Lima's control has seriously eroded over the course of one offseason. He's now issued 21 walks in 43.1 innings this year, a rate of 4.39 walks per nine innings pitched. Stellar control was the only thing separating Jose from being a completely worthless pitcher before, so if that's left him too, he needs to work on promoting his singing career.

Fortunately for the Royals, Devil Rays phenom Scott Kazmir was equally as bad, as the former Mets prospect only made it through four innings. Watching the game, it was apparent that Kazmir, a lefty, was having a much harder time throwing strikes to left-handed batters than he was righties. The box score proved me right; of Kazmir's five walks, four were issued to left-handed batters. By my count, he threw 38 pitches to the Royals lefties last night, only 16 of which being strikes.

Mark Teahen continued to sparkle defensively, as he made several very nice plays to his left that most third basemen probably wouldn't. Oh yeah, he smoked what proved to be the game-winning double to dead center field in the bottom of the 6th too.

Before Matt Stairs even started to compile his usual beer-league softball line complete with two walks, several swings with the Kauffman Stadium fountains in mind and the beer truck driver looks, my dad and I were busy disussing the many reasons why he rules as a ballplayer. Among the items brought up:

- He's fat
- To him, every pitch is a fastball
- Watching him run is VERY good television

Thankfully, we got the privelege of watching Matt score from first base on Emil Brown's triple. Hell, I don't think what he does could even be classified as "running." It's definitely quite a bit more like trotting.

Just like 2004 (and 2003, 2002, 2001, and so forth), the pitching staff has suddenly been ravaged with injuries at the same time. Brian Anderson isn't allowed to pick up a baseball for two weeks because of elbow soreness. Kyle Snyder was placed on the 15-day disabled list because of an elbow strain. Denny Bautista experienced some tightness in his right elbow during his last start against the Blue Jays. Of course, only Bautista's a vital part of the Royals' future as they build towards 2007, but Anderson could be trade bait later on this year, and Snyder was supposed to have been healthy for the first time in a long time.

Yesterday evening, I received word that the secret project I've been playing up the past few weeks will finally be ready to go on Friday. It took about two weeks longer for that to happen than I originally thought, but better late than never, right? Once again, thanks for your patience in the matter and stay tuned!

By the way, I'm pretty sure we'll be seeing Carrie Underwood and Anthony Fedorov in the tabloids after Carrie mouthed "I love you" to the now-former Idol contestant last night. I shake my fist jealous at you, Fedorov.

MLB.com

So, what do you get when a Royals fan stops paying attention to his team one night, and instead watches a bad movie and a disappointing Final Four edition of American Idol? A polka-dotted dinosaur? Christopher Walken in another “I need more cowbell!” sketch? No … apparently, you get a very surprised and stunned Royals fan after learning of his team’s manager suddenly resigning. (Okay, so I’m no Gary Gulman or Robin Williams, but that doesn’t mean my attempt at humor was without effort.)

Anyway, the abrupt halt that Tony Pena’s reign as Royals manager took on Tuesday night is easily the most shocking bit of news Major League Baseball has run across its wire in 2005. After all, despite the dreaded vote of confidence given to him by team owner David Glass, there was absolutely no indication that Pena’s job was in jeopardy or that he was beginning to reach his breaking point with the club’s failure to execute. Miscues like dropped fly balls, botched rundown plays, failed attempts at sacrifice bunts, and lapses in concentration on the mound would be enough to drive an ordinary manager insane, but that stuff never seemed to get to the laid-back Pena, who instead chose to always look at the sunny side of things – that there’s always tomorrow.

But perhaps we should’ve seen this coming after the usually giddy skipper’s temper boiled over in a post-game screaming match a week ago today. Pena used to do things like turn up the stereo and joke around with his players after tough losses, being nothing but patient with young players and those aforementioned mistakes young players make, meaning his sudden change of attitude should’ve been taken more seriously than it was. He was the antithesis of all that was Tony Muser until that day, when we likely saw the beginning of the end of the Pena era.

However, because of the attitude and enthusiasm he showed in 99 percent of his three years at the helm, I have to believe that all of the reasons behind his resignation aren’t being made public. He’s reportedly been subpoenaed to testify in an unspecified civil trial in Kansas City, which may or may not be an extremely serious manner. Regardless of how important that is, it’s pretty clear that something such as dealing with the legal system can affect the way anyone does his or her job.

Unfortunately in Pena’s case, the effectiveness of his first big-time managing gig left much to be desired:

He showed little to no feel for knowing when a pitcher still had something left in the tank or was completely out of gas.

He repeatedly made a punchless offense even more punchless by ordering his players – sometimes his best players – to lay down sacrifice bunts in non-game situations.

The 25-man roster was managed as if all 25 guys were just generic baseball players with no differentiating qualities, which is why Desi Relaford received nearly as much playing time at a corner outfield spot as more-productive hitters like Matt Stairs did.

Relief pitchers who were pitching well (Jason Grimsley and Andy Sisco come to mind) often received no rest, sometimes pitching three days in a row. As a result of that abuse, Grimsley broke down in the second half of 2003, and I’d bet that Sisco – he of the dead arm late last year – could do the same once we hit the dog days of August.

The list goes on and on. However, the one positive Pena contributed was his outstanding work in protecting the arms of his young pitchers. Rare was the time when precious commodities like Zack Greinke, Denny Bautista, Runelvys Hernandez, or (at the time) Jimmy Gobble threw more than 110 pitches in a single start. It was quite the change of pace from Muser, who single-handedly ruined the careers of Chad Durbin and Jose Rosado. Through all the negatives and in-game tactical managing errors, the Royals will be better off because their young pitching will likely remain healthy for the next several seasons as a result of Pena’s watchful eye.

Where do the Royals go from here? Well, it’s too early to say right now. They’ve hired bench coach Bob Schaefer to be the interim manager until a permanent replacement is found. But no matter which man Allard Baird pegs for the job – to name a couple, Larry Bowa or my personal choice Carlos Tosca – the trait this manager MUST possess is a willingness to think along sabermetric lines with Baird. That isn’t a preference towards new thinking; it’s a preference towards the general manager and the manager being on the same page. In other words, the new guy needs to utilize his pitching staff better, treat his bench players like bench players, and DEFINITELY not order first-inning sacrifice bunts. It’s all about synergy, and it’s a vital aspect of the Royals taking the next step towards contention.

I’ll be tracking the managerial hiring process very closely, so stay tuned to this blog for more information and insight into the hunt.

Pushing across a run because of a pitcher’s mistake is a pretty cheap way to win a ballgame, but I’ll certainly take it, especially after the Royals have had the combined rotten luck of Joe Theisman, George Costanza, and anyone who’s ever crossed paths with Liza Minnelli thrown their way this year. Because of that, I’m certainly not going to complain that the Royals scored the eventual game-winning run of yesterday’s game when Steve Kline committed a balk with Emil Brown occupying third base, but I will complain about the balk rule itself and why I think it needs to be changed.

The balk rule encompasses several different scenarios, but as you probably know, the purpose of it is to prevent pitchers from deceiving any players who’ve already reached base safely. In many cases, however, the way in which the rule is enforced totally contradicts that main principle, and what Kline did yesterday was no exception to that. After coming to the set position, it appeared to me that the former Cardinal’s left elbow might have twitched – a movement so unnoticeable, it’s highly likely anyone wouldn’t have even noticed if he or she wasn’t looking for a reason to call a balk. In fact, I’d be willing to bet that neither Brown or fellow baserunner Mark Teahen would tell you they felt deceived by Kline’s slight movement if they were speaking truthfully.

It’s very hard to understand why pitchers are allowed to employ moves meant to deceive baserunners like the “fake-to-third, throw-to-first” pickoff play, but constantly have their hands called when their nostrils flare while standing on the pitching rubber. The balk is an important rule, but the next time it’s called according to the definition will be a rare sight to behold.

Mike Sweeney couldn’t be on more of a hot streak right now, as the only real hitter in the Kansas City lineup is holding up his end of the deal with a 1.016 OPS, good for fourth in the league. However, I still can’t help but be concerned with his declining walk rate and plate discipline in general. To illustrate my point, check out Sweeney’s walks per plate appearance and pitches seen per plate appearance since he became a regular in 1999:

Year   BB/PA   P/PA
1999   .084    3.57
2000   .099    3.64
2001   .101    3.62
2002   .112    3.67
2003   .138    3.74
2004   .073    3.46
2005   .075    3.30

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The decline began in 2003 when Sweeney returned from his month-long absence that was related to a back injury, hitting a very unSweeney-like .260/.325/.379 in August and September. That came after his torrid .321/.440/.540 first half. I’m definitely not any kind of an authority on what statistics are most likely to take a hit after a player resumes everyday work, but I’d assume that while power and batting average would fall into that category, plate discipline would not.

As a result of my thinking, I’m more than a little bit scared that Sweeney’s power has returned this year, but his willingness to take any pitch he can’t smoke into an alleyway hasn’t. Unless you’re Vladimir Guerrero, those skills – pitch recognition and power – go hand-in-hand. To have one, you generally must have the other. I’m afraid Michael isn’t nearly this good, and is due for quite the regression once the hits stop falling in.

Isn’t it amazing the many good things that happen to a good reliever’s career once he’s pitching in save situations? Baltimore’s B.J. Ryan has been one of the elite left-handed firemen in the American League for more than three seasons, but only now is he getting any notoriety for his successes because he’s been branded as a “closer.” Some team is sure to overpay him this winter when he becomes a free agent although Ryan probably won’t do anything better this year than he did in 2004.

It’s still early, but it appears that Ambiorix Burgos has one intangible that makes pitching in high-leverage situations much less stressful: ice water running through his veins. It takes a pretty cool customer to enter a bases-loaded situation in a tie game with one out and calmly blow away two hitters on strikeouts as he did on Sunday. I’ve always heard that pitching in any Dominican Republic league as Burgos has is some pretty big-time serious stuff, but I had no idea it was so pressure-packed that, as a result, Burgos stays cool on the mound in save situations:

“It's not difficult to be a closer,” he said through clubhouse interpreter Alberto Castillo. “If I closed in the Dominican Republican, I can close anywhere. We get 20,000 fans there and everyone is yelling.”

Ambiorix has the market cornered on confidence, wouldn’t you say?

Teahen didn’t do much of anything on offense against the Orioles, but he showed flashes of what he can do. He made two spectacular defensive plays on Friday night and displayed a very sweet swing yesterday. He’s going to be a hell of an all-around player, especially if he continues to work on driving the ball to right field.

However, the other non-pitcher who came over with Teahen in the Carlos Beltran trade looks as lost and out-of-place as Jennifer Love Hewitt in a music video. John Buck, supposedly the next Mike Macfarlane, is now hitting a robust .163 with 23 strikeouts in only 80 at-bats. I’d like to blow his lack of production off as just a slump, but he’s been in this slump for more than a month without showing any sign of life. As if it wasn’t bad enough that he’s swinging at balls and taking strikes, he’s also miles out in front of any offspeed pitch while being way behind on 88-mph fastballs. In my opinion, he needs to cut down on both the length and uppercut in his swing if he wants to avoid losing playing time to Alberto Castillo.

Remember when the Royals traded this guy to the Pittsburgh Pirates for this prospect? Well, the Pirates decided to cut bait with their acquisition yesterday, giving him his outright release. As a result, Pittsburgh paid that guy roughly $166,000 per game or, breaking it down further, about $43,000 per at-bat. Quite the intelligent use of resources and a Grade-C prospect, Dave Littlefield. Thanks for the generosity.

It’s only a matter of time before Justin Huber’s promoted to Omaha. Allard’s third heist of the 2004 season was hitting .356/.481/.574 through Saturday night’s action. As soon as Ken Harvey’s traded to the Devil Rays for Jonny Gomes, Huber will be ready to be a Royal.

I’m guessing that everyone else was shocked as I was when Tony Pena emerged from the dugout yesterday with a hook in his pocket, removing a dominant Zack Greinke from a 1-0 game after only 85 pitches. How shocked was I? Watching the action unfold on MLB.com’s Gameday feature, my first thought wasn’t that Greinke was being taken out in favor of Andy Sisco because of tiredness; I immediately assumed the worst, conjuring up images of him grasping at his right elbow or shoulder. After all, why else would Pena decide his best pitcher was finished for the day at the first sign of trouble?

As it turns out, there’s apparently nothing wrong physically with Greinke, meaning his manager once again screwed the pooch with his mismanagement of the pitching staff. At the risk of sounding like a hypocrite after my miniature tirade against second-guessing, there was absolutely NO reason to take the ball from Greinke in the eighth inning of yesterday’s game. Granted, he bookended a sacrifice bunt by walking Paul Konerko to lead off the inning and hitting Jermaine Dye right between the numbers, but this wasn’t an example of a starting pitcher beginning to lose his control or concentration. First of all, Zack was very much around the plate in Konerko’s plate appearance and allegedly hit Dye on purpose. Secondly, the next time Greinke isn’t in complete control of a game he’s pitching will be the first time.

However, if Pena saw something he didn’t like with Greinke, there’s no telling what was going through his mind when, after putting Sisco into the game, saw his best reliever have a complete meltdown after getting Jaime Burke to ground out to Mark Teahen. I use the term “complete meltdown” because Sisco did something that’s pretty hard to do: lose Joe Crede (82 walks in 1378 at-bats) AND Juan Uribe (96 walks in 1726 at-bats) on free passes to tie the game, before Ambiorix Burgos walked Scott Podsednik to force in the eventual game-winning run in the person of Dye. Without allowing a hit in that inning, Pena’s decision making and the Royals’ bullpen stole a win from Greinke, allowed the White Sox to plate two runs, and eventually win the game after Shingo Takatsu slammed the door in the ninth.

The bottom line is that while Greinke’s still just 21 years old, he’s the very best pitcher on this team, and, as long as he has a reasonable pitch count, should be allowed every opportunity to pitch out of jams. And as Ryan Lefebvre put it on the radio broadcast, Pena’s left Greinke in far worse situations than two men on base with one out in a one-run game, making Thursday’s decision that much more curious. By itself, is that act grounds for Pena’s dismissal? I don’t think so, but it certainly does add to the checklist of his mistakes since April of 2003.

Today’s Discussion Topic

The Royals have the second overall pick in this year’s First Year Player Draft, meaning they’re staring the most important day of their rebuilding efforts right between the eyes. Assuming the Diamondbacks select Justin Upton with the first pick, which player do you think the Royals should pop at no. 2? My selection would be Nebraska third baseman Alex Gordon, who’s followed up his .365/.493/.754 2004 with an even-better .396/.553/.761 season this year.

The Royals' brass isn't putting Tony Pena on the hot seat, but they should be. Removing a cruising Zack Greinke after only 85 pitches today is simply inexcusable no matter what happened afterwards. This game has me on the verge of entering an extreme level of depression.

So, who else thinks Gwen Stefani's Hollaback Girl will go down as one of the most awesomely bad songs of this decade?

Anyway, sorry for the lack of a new post today and yesterday. I've been something slightly more than busy the last couple of days, but I think things are going to slow down enough from now until a week from Friday that I'll be able to resume posting regularly about our 7-19 baseball team. Until then, how about an open thread day? Some topics of interest:

- Is Tony Pena relying on Andy Sisco too much?

- When and if Jeremy Affeldt returns from his injury, should he resume his closer duties, or should Ambiorix Burgos keep the job?

- I think Tom House's revelation that ballplayers actually did use steroids in the 1960s and 1970s isn't at all surprising. I've long thought it to be wrong that only the players from this era have been suspected of 'roid use, while players from the previous generation haven't been questioned at all. Your thoughts?

- Assuming that Scott Savol finally gets his goofy and very not-African American butt kicked off American Idol, who's going to win? I'm still pulling for the talented and undeniably gorgeous Carrie Underwood, with Vonzell Solomon running a very close second.

Discuss away! If you need me, I'll be busy hating Carl Everett.

I still don't have anything definite to say about my little secret, so instead, I'll spend some time discussing the Royals' series victory over the Indians. Or for those of you with a real sense of Royals nostalgia, the biggest Kansas City miracle since that time Jim Pittsley shut out the Cincinnati Reds for five innings. Moving on...

If there ever was a day in which Lima Time! ensued for five innings before Homer Time! took over for the remainder of the start, it was Sunday. And while Jose Lima -- the creator of Lima Time! -- is probably the only Royals player I'm currently rooting against, it was certainly cool to see a Royals pitcher carry a no-hitter into the middle innings. However, like Brian Anderson a few starts before him, I noticed that Lima was getting outs despite repeatedly falling behind in the count. Granted, much of his falling behind could be credited to home plate umpire Eric Cooper and his days' worth of horrid umpiring behind the dish, but regardless, Lima fell behind, and the Indians' hitters just didn't make him pay for it until their two-dinger, five-run sixth inning.

Looking deeper, we can see that falling behind and eventually walking hitters has been a problem in 2005 Lima, a guy whose greatest asset is his usually stellar control:

YEAR	BB/9IP
1994-2004	2.10
2005	3.93

The spike of 1.80 walks per nine innings pitched has come in only 32.1 innings, but it's noteworthy because he's now on the wrong side of 30. Lima's had his usual problems with pitched baseballs ending up in the hands of fans in fair territory (although he's certainly no 2005 Eric Milton), so if his control's left him, he'll be far more of a liability than I ever dreamed when this season started. Again, I hope this will be Lesson No. 1,482 in The Ongoing Education of Allard Baird: No pitcher can be an "innings eater" if he isn't good enough in the first place to stay in ballgames for at least seven innings.

Unfortunately,Ken Harvey's back in the Majors, and I suspect his Saturday 3-5 hitting line that included a grand slam will be enough to keep him here for the rest of the season. The Big Contact has a gift for making very hard contact when he displays solid pitch selection at the plate (the slam was a rocket to left-center field), but it's very clear that he still doesn't have the slightest clue how to select good pitches to swing at. Heck, even the usually mild-mannered Denny Matthews, Ryan Lefebvre, and Brian McRae of RSTN took notice during Sunday's game, criticizing Harvey for swinging at at least two up-and-in pitches at neck level against Scott Elarton. Ken has the physical abilities to be a useful first baseman, but it'll take him realizing he's not Vladimir Guerrero to accomplish that.

Yet again, Andy Sisco was lights-out in the eighth inning of a one-run ballgame, coaxing a weak fly ball out and a double play grounder after walking Travis Hafner to lead off the inning. With his smooth mechanics and aggressiveness in pounding the strike zone, I'm not sure how he walked a batter every other inning in A-ball a year ago.

Denny Bautista's making me look really stupid for wanting him sent back to Triple-A to start the season, and I hope he keeps doing so. Not only has he been decent in the ERA department (4.55), his peripheral statistics are very encouraging as well:

IP	SO/9	BB/9	GB/FB
29.2	6.98	3.08	3.17

Roughly 75 percent of the balls in play against him have been groundballs, a ratio that would make Kevin Brown jealous. It's as simple as this: when Denny figures out how to throw strikes on a more consistent basis (he's already farther ahead in that area than I thought he'd be), he's going to become a dominant #1 starting pitcher. If we aren't careful, that could happen this year.